NYCFC in the Media Thread - 2017
- Thread starter LionNYC
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If you want to look at it from a capitalist perspective, that shows that either Klejstan had zero bargaining power coming out of Belgium, or he wasn't self-assured enough to demand more. Probably a lot of both. I'm sure the 2nd lesson learned will be applied next contract since he's already taking care of the 1st one on the field.
The latest issue of Howler (#12, Spring 2017) features a photo of Blue Lady Tirzah Rivera marrying her husband Patrick at Yankee Stadium, surrounded by fellow NYCFC supporters.
Well, Everyone saw the comparison at the time. Koochstache did fuck all for the nats. Mix was really good most of the time and never koochstank bad, also much younger. It was a no brainer. People saying it was a dumb signing are applying revisionist history. It was a damn steal to get Mix without a DP contract. We/he/someone fucked it up after that. I think it was Kreis.
Sacha played in the Champions League. Mix played in the Tipalaegen.
Where he lost his place to a 16 year old and was only getting sub and Belgian cup minutes.
Hey! Stop countering his Mix is the worst player of all time narrative.
NEW YORK CITY FC 2017 SEASON PREVIEW/
FEBRUARY 28, 2017 BY BENJAMIN BELLMAN
This is at American Soccer Analysis
The Conclusion
"It’s now or never for this “first edition” of NYCFC. With Lampard retired, only Villa and Pirlo remain from the club’s high-profile entrance into the crowded New York sports market, and this is likely their last year of championship-caliber play. One thing is certain: this team will score buckets of goals. That’s probably enough to get them into the MLS Cup playoffs, but is it enough to get them to the final, let alone win it? If this new defense can cut down on the chances allowed, that should be enough for NYCFC to lock down the Eastern Conference and compete with FC Dallas for the Supporters’ Shield."
He goes on with some more guarded comments, and there's a lot leading up to the conclusion.
Also, on that Doyle article we all dumped on yesterday where he listed a bunch of positive things about NYCFC but then said but the Expected Goal differential means they will revert to the mean, he was discussing the numbers here from the same site:
http://www.americansocceranalysis.com/team-xg-2016/
Our Actual GD of +7 was nearly 10 goals better than our Expected Goal Differential of -2.7. So if you believe Expected Goals is a valid stat that means we were unusually lucky last year and that is not likely to continue. Only the Galaxy and Colorado had even higher discrepancies in the same direction. I'm not sure what I think of Expected Goals yet. I like the idea but I'm not sure it has been through enough refinements to be meaningful yet.
One last note on our differential last year. On goals allowed we were close to the projection and even let in a bit more than projected: 55 Actual to 52.6 Expected. It is the Goals Scored where this stat claims we were especially lucky: 62 Actual to only 49.9 Expected. Doyle also hinted that there was a big difference in the Differential between our Home and Away results but wasn't more specific and this table does not include a H/A breakdown.
FEBRUARY 28, 2017 BY BENJAMIN BELLMAN
This is at American Soccer Analysis
The Conclusion
"It’s now or never for this “first edition” of NYCFC. With Lampard retired, only Villa and Pirlo remain from the club’s high-profile entrance into the crowded New York sports market, and this is likely their last year of championship-caliber play. One thing is certain: this team will score buckets of goals. That’s probably enough to get them into the MLS Cup playoffs, but is it enough to get them to the final, let alone win it? If this new defense can cut down on the chances allowed, that should be enough for NYCFC to lock down the Eastern Conference and compete with FC Dallas for the Supporters’ Shield."
He goes on with some more guarded comments, and there's a lot leading up to the conclusion.
Also, on that Doyle article we all dumped on yesterday where he listed a bunch of positive things about NYCFC but then said but the Expected Goal differential means they will revert to the mean, he was discussing the numbers here from the same site:
http://www.americansocceranalysis.com/team-xg-2016/
Our Actual GD of +7 was nearly 10 goals better than our Expected Goal Differential of -2.7. So if you believe Expected Goals is a valid stat that means we were unusually lucky last year and that is not likely to continue. Only the Galaxy and Colorado had even higher discrepancies in the same direction. I'm not sure what I think of Expected Goals yet. I like the idea but I'm not sure it has been through enough refinements to be meaningful yet.
One last note on our differential last year. On goals allowed we were close to the projection and even let in a bit more than projected: 55 Actual to 52.6 Expected. It is the Goals Scored where this stat claims we were especially lucky: 62 Actual to only 49.9 Expected. Doyle also hinted that there was a big difference in the Differential between our Home and Away results but wasn't more specific and this table does not include a H/A breakdown.
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The end of your post is what I don't think Doyle really teased out properly to make the point. In any event, I don't think mean reversion applies very well to a scenario where we are only nominally playing the same "system". The pieces are so different from last year in personnel and talents, I would never feel comfortable in applying that sort of statistical analysis in support of moving in either direction.
Yeah I couldn't figure out why he thought the H/A split might be meaningful. If you assume the any disparity from xG is random -- which assumption is the entire reason for using the xG stat -- then if it happens to vary more at Home or on the Road that should be meaningless.
I'm not sure about whether having different personnel or a different system makes a difference. I think the right approach is that you cannot assume we will continue to be lucky, regardless of new players and such, but you can argue that our new players will improve our xGF and xGA enough to compensate for the assumption that our luck will revert to "normal."
Yeah, it doesn't equate. Simply replacing Saunders is enough to skew any correlation- if Johnson is a recent Chicago-style Johnson then maybe it's a fair point, but if he's an early-years Johnson (and his current form suggests it) then the goals allowed should go way down regardless of our defense staying the same (or getting better).
The same could be said with the rest of the roster.
why is this our last year of contention? We are younger than last year, our defense SEEMS to be improved and even with a Pirlo retirement, none of us are convinced he is a difference maker right now.
The key here is Villa. When his production falls off, I agree that our window starts to shut.
The DP replacement for Pirlo HAS to be a difference maker in the Villa/Giovinco/Keane mold. I can talk myself into 34 games of Maxi Moralez replacing 17 games of Frank Lampard. I don't like the spending there, but I can talk myself into him as an equal replacement.
The key here is Villa. When his production falls off, I agree that our window starts to shut.
The DP replacement for Pirlo HAS to be a difference maker in the Villa/Giovinco/Keane mold. I can talk myself into 34 games of Maxi Moralez replacing 17 games of Frank Lampard. I don't like the spending there, but I can talk myself into him as an equal replacement.
Not the last year of contention for the team ever but the last year for NYCFC version 1.x with most or perhaps even some of our original DPs. Pirlo is likely gone after this year we all think, and Villa's productivity will go down, but we don't know when. His last great year could be behind him, or he could have another 5. You never know with athletes until it happens. I think it's likely he has at least one or even two good years left, but every year the likelihood that he will suffer a substantial decline increases, as does the risk of an injury from which he takes too long to recover.
Mgarbowski beat me to it. Was signing on to say I read that as last year of contention for our any Original first year players. Though I'm not sure that's true for Villa. Pirlo I expect to be gone after this year but I think Villa might still be able to contribute beyond this season he just might (hopefully) not have to be the main man anymore when we sign a quality dp replacement for Pirlo.
The real question is: Did we ever really expect NYCFC v1.x to win a cup? And if we actually do, the only links would be the DPs and a couple of players. Who's left from year 1? Villa, Pirlo (summer), RJ, Khiry, Tmac, Lurch. Am I missing anyone?
I don't know if there's a non-arbitrary line between 1.x and 2.x. I'm not going to argue against either position as long as it's reasonably clear which you use.
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