Official 2016 Nycfc Roster Discussion Thread

[sbrylski]

One question that could make this moot,does his salary put him in the bottom eight, cap exempt slots? if, so, all this doesn;t matter

Nope, the line was around $80k last year, IIRC. I used the minimum salary as my baseline in my post above because we currently only have 20 players, but you're right, that baseline could be adjusted upwards $10-20k at least. Which means Tommy Meyer might be completely free, measured against a marginal cost of $50k for Wright.

EDIT: Our 21st highest paid player at the end of last year was Meara at $72,913, not KWS at $81,667 as I had remembered.

 

[Ulrich]

The open question for the scouts is how much better is White than the cheaper options? Tommy Meyer is making $15k above minimum salary. Ethan White is making $65k above minimum salary. For it to be a good gamble, White has to be over 4x as likely to make an impact than Meyer.

Let's say he passes that test based on the scouting reports. Great. But now we have to ask whether it will matter. Is 4x better than Tommy Meyer any good? Will his play, should he find his way into the lineup, lose us games anyway? Then what is he actually worth? Still pretty much nothing.

My concern is whether there was an internal process such as this. It's hard for me to see how this signing makes sense beyond:

Philly is having a fire sale
Anyone free?
They'd give us Wright
Oh, he's ok and we need another CB body
$125k isn't too bad
Let's do it

I hope they have a better internal process than that, but this is how it reads to me.



Would you rather swing and miss or not swing at all? You're giving away the chance in order to possibly, marginally, improve your 4th CB spot.

Your math is wrong. If Myer is only making $15K above min salary, then for all intents and purposes he's making the minimum. White is essentially making twice the minimum salary (+5K). White just has to be twice as likely to make an impact. dividing 65/15 is just creating fuzzy math to justify your point - the important number is the overall relation to the minimum salary cap hit. For the CB position in MLS, you are not going to find a minimum salaried player that can be counted on to make a significant contribution, because if they could, they would have gotten a raise by now.

As to Tom in Fairfield CT comment about worst players on worst teams..... you've got to be kidding me. There can be good players on crappy teams that don't shine which are a result of chemistry with other players, but more importantly issues with the coach - either because the coach makes asinine decisions like Kreis did this year, or because the coach has placed them in the doghouse whether right or wrong. Kreis did that - Brovsky had a hell of a game in the Cup as arguably our best defender, then a short time later went on Paternity Leave from which he didn't see the field again. Poku was categorically deemed a bench player by Kreis when the entire fan base and even the pundits were calling for him to start - that was a doghouse decision. So the point is, don't judge White's benching based on a shitty team with a questionable coach that won't play him; if he played every game like Grabavoy and still sucked, then sure, he's a crappy player on a crappy team.

 

[sbrylski]

Your math is wrong. If Myer is only making $15K above min salary, then for all intents and purposes he's making the minimum. White is essentially making twice the minimum salary (+5K). White just has to be twice as likely to make an impact. dividing 65/15 is just creating fuzzy math to justify your point - the important number is the overall relation to the minimum salary cap hit. For the CB position in MLS, you are not going to find a minimum salaried player that can be counted on to make a significant contribution, because if they could, they would have gotten a raise by now.

First, the bolded is exactly the lazy attitude of bad management. No rounding. Be ruthlessly efficient.

Second, no, you should look at and compare the amount over the minimum.

The salary cap is presumed to be $3.66 million, but because there is a salary minimum, there is a sunk cost of $1.2 million (20*$60k) just to have a roster. In other words, decisions based on salary should be analyzed based on how much a player is paid over the minimum, and how much of that amount cuts into the $2.46 million discretionary cap amount.

So looking at Meyer v. White, Meyer costs $15k of the discretionary amount (or 0.61%), and White costs $65k (or 2.64%) of the discretionary amount. White is significantly more expensive.

Finally, that math changes as you fill up your roster, because if your 21st highest paid player is paid more than the minimum, that sets your new baseline. If you cut a guy making $100k, but #21 is making $80k, you only save $20k, not $100k or $40k.

This is the kind of analysis that needs to be done with every potential acquisition.

 

[Ulrich]

First, the bolded is exactly the lazy attitude of bad management. No rounding. Be ruthlessly efficient.

Oh geez, you're too much. I said in a previous post I'd refrain from snark, but your F'ing BOLD comment is not an example of a lazy attitude nor bad management but a guy posting on the go and dumbing-down and simplifying a concept for it to be read and grasped quickly. That (0.61%) isn't like getting you as much as the (2.64%) because a 3rd/4th CB will definitely play during the season - to pay 2% more is worth it for a guy that you know will see the field.

It's obvious we'd construct our rosters differently, so just leave it at that.

 

[Tom in Fairfield CT]

Your math is wrong. If Myer is only making $15K above min salary, then for all intents and purposes he's making the minimum. White is essentially making twice the minimum salary (+5K). White just has to be twice as likely to make an impact. dividing 65/15 is just creating fuzzy math to justify your point - the important number is the overall relation to the minimum salary cap hit. For the CB position in MLS, you are not going to find a minimum salaried player that can be counted on to make a significant contribution, because if they could, they would have gotten a raise by now.

As to Tom in Fairfield CT comment about worst players on worst teams..... you've got to be kidding me. There can be good players on crappy teams that don't shine which are a result of chemistry with other players, but more importantly issues with the coach - either because the coach makes asinine decisions like Kreis did this year, or because the coach has placed them in the doghouse whether right or wrong. Kreis did that - Brovsky had a hell of a game in the Cup as arguably our best defender, then a short time later went on Paternity Leave from which he didn't see the field again. Poku was categorically deemed a bench player by Kreis when the entire fan base and even the pundits were calling for him to start - that was a doghouse decision. So the point is, don't judge White's benching based on a shitty team with a questionable coach that won't play him; if he played every game like Grabavoy and still sucked, then sure, he's a crappy player on a crappy team.

Brovsky?

i just can't even...

 

[EganSoccerWords]

I am all for taking flyers on guys, but its not the best economic decision to take a flyer on a guy who is making six figures and won't justify the salary if he doesn't pan out. You take flyers on guys like RJ Allen who if he works out, is a great value and if he doesn't who cares and you cut him and pick up a new flyer.

 

[FootyLovin]

First, the bolded is exactly the lazy attitude of bad management. No rounding. Be ruthlessly efficient.

Second, no, you should look at and compare the amount over the minimum.

The salary cap is presumed to be $3.66 million, but because there is a salary minimum, there is a sunk cost of $1.2 million (20*$60k) just to have a roster. In other words, decisions based on salary should be analyzed based on how much a player is paid over the minimum, and how much of that amount cuts into the $2.46 million discretionary cap amount.

So looking at Meyer v. White, Meyer costs $15k of the discretionary amount (or 0.61%), and White costs $65k (or 2.64%) of the discretionary amount. White is significantly more expensive.

Finally, that math changes as you fill up your roster, because if your 21st highest paid player is paid more than the minimum, that sets your new baseline. If you cut a guy making $100k, but #21 is making $80k, you only save $20k, not $100k or $40k.

This is the kind of analysis that needs to be done with every potential acquisition.

This comes close but still doesn't exactly get the salary impact. Meyer has a zero impact on salary cap. White's impact equals the difference between White's salary and the player who gets bumped to #21 because White is on the team. So if we sign more 1-20 salary players this year with the additional TAM, let's say our #21 player makes $100k. That makes White's impact $25k. Not $50k. He increases our cap spend by $25k. This isn't a question of is he 2x or 4x better than Meyer. It is does his skill, experience, etc justify reducing our cap availability by $25k vs. another option that would be free of any cap hit?

 

[Kjbert]

I think Philly actually had a really good CB pairing this year. He was beaten out by Edu and Vittoria. Nothing to be ashamed of.

Philly probably realized they had their CB pairing for the next X amount of years and White would never see the field. Also rumors that he had requested a trade.

 

[sbrylski]

This comes close but still doesn't exactly get the salary impact. Meyer has a zero impact on salary cap. White's impact equals the difference between White's salary and the player who gets bumped to #21 because White is on the team. So if we sign more 1-20 salary players this year with the additional TAM, let's say our #21 player makes $100k. That makes White's impact $25k. Not $50k. He increases our cap spend by $25k. This isn't a question of is he 2x or 4x better than Meyer. It is does his skill, experience, etc justify reducing our cap availability by $25k vs. another option that would be free of any cap hit?

That's what I said. Our current #21 doesn't exist, so I was using the minimum, but then I said that baseline gets adjusted to what our actual #21 makes once we sign him. Last year it was $72k as previously stated.

 

[Seth]

First, the bolded is exactly the lazy attitude of bad management. No rounding. Be ruthlessly efficient.

Second, no, you should look at and compare the amount over the minimum.

The salary cap is presumed to be $3.66 million, but because there is a salary minimum, there is a sunk cost of $1.2 million (20*$60k) just to have a roster. In other words, decisions based on salary should be analyzed based on how much a player is paid over the minimum, and how much of that amount cuts into the $2.46 million discretionary cap amount.

So looking at Meyer v. White, Meyer costs $15k of the discretionary amount (or 0.61%), and White costs $65k (or 2.64%) of the discretionary amount. White is significantly more expensive.

Finally, that math changes as you fill up your roster, because if your 21st highest paid player is paid more than the minimum, that sets your new baseline. If you cut a guy making $100k, but #21 is making $80k, you only save $20k, not $100k or $40k.

This is the kind of analysis that needs to be done with every potential acquisition.

Can we not cut your $2.46 million in half because we'd be able to subtract both TAM and GAM from that ($1.2 million together)? Or maybe it's actually more accurate to say we'd add that extra money to your amount, depending on whether you're seeing it as money we can spend or as a sunk cost of doing business.

 

[FootyLovin]

That's what I said. Our current #21 doesn't exist, so I was using the minimum, but then I said that baseline gets adjusted to what our actual #21 makes once we sign him. Last year it was $72k as previously stated.

I was just trying to emphasize the point. In my head I was making it clearer. Bottom line, from what I've read, I'd take a chance on White for a $25k cap hit. If that saves 1 regular season goal vs. a cheaper CB, it's worth it.

 

[MagnusPax]

I think Philly actually had a really good CB pairing this year. He was beaten out by Edu and Vittoria. Nothing to be ashamed of.

Philly probably realized they had their CB pairing for the next X amount of years and White would never see the field. Also rumors that he had requested a trade.

Philly just waived Vitoria and their trying to get Edu back in the midfield. I think White just wasn't very good and wasn't in their plans. But hey maybe he can shine at NYCFC.

 

[Kjbert]

Vitoria was on loan from Benfica. The other guy, Marquez, was their original starter.

 

[sbrylski]

Bottom line, from what I've read, I'd take a chance on White for a $25k cap hit. If that saves 1 regular season goal vs. a cheaper CB, it's worth it.

And this is ultimately the question - is White worth it? I (and you) were just trying to frame it properly.

 

[MagnusPax]

Vitoria was on loan from Benfica. The other guy, Marquez, was their original starter.

Yes... the point is that Philly by no means have solidified their back line. White wasn't good enough, the spot was open for him to claim.

 

[Sabo]

The White pickup is probably because Reyna liked him while he was USYS Technical Director and White was with the U20s. Reyna likely sees a potential upside that other potential cheaper roster moves don't have. Hopefully he is able to provide us with a Facey-type contribution level. He takes up the same salary cap space at the same position.

Vittoria and Edu were the 2 highest paid members of the Union. If Curtin wanted to play them both as center backs, that may have more to do with coaching than White's ability.

 

[EganSoccerWords]

He's got to be better than our cbs last night....right?

 

[JGarrettLieb]

He's got to be better than our cbs last night....right?

After last night I'm really starting to champion the idea that the best place to spend the 800k in TAM is on buying down two 600k centerbacks to a salary cap hit of 200k. Yes our offense could use a bit of fine tuning before it becomes rediciously lethal, but holy shit does our defense need some immediate shoring up.

Additionally, two stout centerbacks, especially ones that can run, would dramatically alleviate a lot of the problems that Pirlo can caused with his general lack of defensive work rate.

Further Iraola the way Iraola likes to play, we're playing more of a 3-4-3 than a true 4-3-3 and you can't do that shit without some seriously good centerbacks.

 

[LIblue]

After last night I'm really starting to champion the idea that the best place to spend the 800k in TAM is on buying down two 600k centerbacks to a salary cap hit of 200k. Yes our offense could use a bit of fine tuning before it becomes rediciously lethal, but holy shit does our defense need some immediate shoring up.

Further Iraola the way Iraola likes to play, we're playing more of a 3-4-3 than a true 4-3-3 and you can't do that shit without some seriously good centerbacks.

Even during the season offense wasn't a huge problem, sure we could have been much better at finishing but giving away too many goals through stupid mistakes was our real downfall.

Iraola is really good but like you said he can't play as a more attacking defender when the rest of the defense is so weak.

 

[MagnusPax]

The White pickup is probably because Reyna liked him while he was USYS Technical Director and White was with the U20s. Reyna likely sees a potential upside that other potential cheaper roster moves don't have. Hopefully he is able to provide us with a Facey-type contribution level. He takes up the same salary cap space at the same position.

Vittoria and Edu were the 2 highest paid members of the Union. If Curtin wanted to play them both as center backs, that may have more to do with coaching than White's ability.

Vitoria is a waste, was a terrible CB for Philly last year. Listen, most MLS pundits and every Union fan says the same thing, White is just a journeyman. So we just spent more on a younger Kwame. Not the smartest move.

Beyond that, it was clear in the YES article yesterday that the main reason NYC brought in White was because our wonderful and apparently coach-firing-spree-survivor goalkeeping coach, who used to work at Philly, recommended him. I am so glad that Reyna and PV are getting player acquisition advice from a failed coach and TD from the hapless Union. This is what a FO led by Reyna will get us. More of the same from last year.