The MLS Elite

[Midas Mulligan]

Five would be more than 20% of the league, which doesn't sound very elite. Pick four any time before Friday's games and I'll make the bar tabs level at $50.

yamalamadingdong...gahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh........probably going to have to drop ATL since they have no defenders on the roster.

Who are those that you'd prefer? Just curious, not disagreeing with you; I think I'd rank Marsch similarly (not the best, far from worst). My top choice would probably be Gregg Berhalter. It's impressive what he does with Columbus year after year, with less than elite talent / spending. I also think he gears towards a playing style that is admirable, yet achievable. Not to mention that, with the team maybe moving to Austin, perhaps he'd want out of his current situation anyway.

Close second would probably be Tab Ramos, but I'm kind of hoping that USSF decides to expand the USMNT GM role from its (rumor has it) very narrow scope, and Tab gets that position. I don't think anyone else has better insight into the full range of age levels and players on the men's side.

Never Tab. He's a tactical wanker.

Tata Martino would be my first choice among realistic candidates. Then probably Berhalter or Vanney (both of whom I rate ahead of PV, btw).

Unrealistic, but easily best, would be David Wagner.

 

[Ulrich]

yamalamadingdong...gahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh........probably going to have to drop ATL since they have no defenders on the roster.


Never Tab. He's a tactical wanker.

Tata Martino would be my first choice among realistic candidates. Then probably Berhalter or Vanney (both of whom I rate ahead of PV, btw).

Unrealistic, but easily best, would be David Wagner.

I think he meant Tab for GM. Though hard to see him ahead of Bocanegra.

Wagner
Tata
Berhalter
Vanny

That’s a good list of domestics and Wagner.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Oh I thought you already did in the OP. Want to change them? The catch is you gotta do it now.

But as I have said, I don’t think it is yet 100% clear who the elite teams are. See post below.

I think the notion that there is no MLS Elite was certainly true 3 years ago. I don't think it is anymore. There is a real difference in how much teams spend and another difference in how efficiently teams spend, and the combination is yielding some teams that are well above the pack.

I think by June, you could pick 3-5 teams as being Elite and with 90% certainty, one of them would win MLS Cup. I don't think that has been true for most of the league's history.

I tell you what. I’ll bet you a Mug of Ale that I can name 4 elite teams on May 21 - five months to the day before the end of the season - and one will win the MLS Cup. Trick for me is that I am naming the elite teams and not just picking strategically. So, if none come from the West, I can’t just slot in a West team to improve my odds. Another issue is that there may be more than 4 elite teams at that point, but I agree that it’s only fair that I stop at 4.

 

[dummyrun]

But as I have said, I don’t think it is yet 100% clear who the elite teams are. See post below.



I tell you what. I’ll bet you a Mug of Ale that I can name 4 elite teams on May 21 - five months to the day before the end of the season - and one will win the MLS Cup. Trick for me is that I am naming the elite teams and not just picking strategically. So, if none come from the West, I can’t just slot in a West team to improve my odds. Another issue is that there may be more than 4 elite teams at that point, but I agree that it’s only fair that I stop at 4.

Just because I like making things complicated: We're currently between Match Day 5 and 6, and I'm offering 1/1 odds on any set of four teams people think are the MLS Elite. You say that by June, which starts on Match Day 14, you'll be able to say with 90% certainty which set of elites will win the Cup, which would call for 9/1 odds in my favor.

So I propose a schedule. If you pick your four teams after the start of the following Match Day (for Match Day 6, any time after NER-MTL kicks off tomorrow), these odds apply:

5: 1/1 mug of ale each
6: 2 mugs for me/1 for you
7: 3/1
8: 4/1
9: 5/1
10: 6/1
11: 7/1
12 (May 21): 8/1
13: 9/1 and I take the subway
14 (June 1): 9/1 still but you call me an Uber from the bar (safety first!)

 

[dummyrun]

yamalamadingdong...gahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh........probably going to have to drop ATL since they have no defenders on the roster.

Let's see, your initial rankings were:

Tier 1: NYC, ATL, TFC

Tier 2: LAFC, LAG, RBNY

If ATL drops, who's your elite four for drinking purposes?

 

[dummyrun]

Let's see, your initial rankings were:

Tier 1: NYC, ATL, TFC

Tier 2: LAFC, LAG, RBNY

If ATL drops, who's your elite four for drinking purposes?

Shit they bought a DM.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Looking at the Supporters' Shield standings by points per game.

1. NYC 2.6
2. ATL 2.4
3. SKC 2.17
4. NER 2.0

We have played #3, #4 and #20 on the road and hosted #10 and #11. This week, we host #11 and travel to #2.

RSL has traveled to #8 and #19 (Toronto) and hosted #6, #7 and #9.

Atlanta has traveled to #17 (loss) and #16 and hosted #9, #6 and #21.

 

[Gotham Gator]

The Elite
NYCFC
Toronto
Atlanta
Columbus

The Nearly Elite
New Jersey
Sporting KC
Vancouver
LAFC

The Fallen
Seattle

Checking back in on the Elite list first posted at the beginning of the month. That initial analysis looked at teams after the first 3-5 games. Now we are at 6-8. Three of the four original Elite are still in place, and three teams are still fighting to join them.

NYCFC and Atlanta are still clearly among the MLS Elite. They are 2 of the top 3 on both points and goal differential, have played tough schedules, and showed their quality in a great match in front of 45,000 screaming fans. Each has had one very bad game on the road, which has been the exception. Further, each has accomplished what they have despite injuries to key players.

Toronto remains worthy of Elite status, notwithstanding their poor record this season, as most of those games were with a skeleton team. This was the best team in MLS history last year, and they made an impressive run through the best of Liga MX before falling in the CCL final. Their challenge will be successfully switching their focus back to the grind of an MLS season after coming so close in Champions League.

Our fourth elite team is Sporting KC - elevated from Nearly Elite status after continuing a terrific run. They are unbeaten in 7 games since a defeat to fellow Elite, NYCFC, in the opener. While Sporting KC have not had the toughest competition along the way, their complete dismantling of a solid Vancouver team, 6-0, removed any doubt about Greg Vanney's team. And, before anyone points out that Vancouver played most of that game with 9 men, remember that half of SKC's lead was built in the first 30 minutes of that game before any red cards had been issued. It was total domination, and helped SKC not only tie for the league lead in goal differential, but put them atop the league in goals scored - something nobody would have predicted as 2018 began.

Columbus, on the other hand, has performed poorly the last few weeks and will need to get back to their play at the start of the season to re-earn Elite status. The Crew have 1 point over their last 4 games, and against a schedule that has been average at best. If their recent form continues, they will join Seattle as one of The Fallen.

There are still teams knocking on the door of the Elite club, waiting for their turn to enter. These Nearly Elite include LAFC and Dallas - each sitting on 12 points after 6 games. Dallas is the league's last unbeaten, but with as many ties as losses and a schedule that does not impress. A win in Yankee Stadium this weekend, however, could earn them a promotion. LAFC may not yet be among the Elite in quality, but they may be the most fun to watch, with most of their games featuring one team or another scoring 4-5 goals. Their schedule has been tough, and all on the road, which changes this weekend.

The final Nearly Elite club is New Jersey. Like Toronto, CCL duties have hurt their early season record. Unlike Toronto, they've been refocused on MLS for a couple of weeks, but still lost a home game to lowly Chicago. Still, the Red Bulls' performance in CCL and some of their games in MLS - notably a 4-0 dismantling of Portland - have shown the potential that exists.

Finally, a word about Orlando and their 4-game winning streak. That streak has impressively turned around a poor start to the season (1 point through 3 games), but their wins have largely come against weak opponents (the Red Bulls' B-team doesn't count). Back-to-back games next month against Atlanta and Toronto will provide a truer test.

The Elite
Atlanta
NYCFC
Toronto
Sporting KC

The Nearly Elite
LAFC
Dallas
New Jersey

The Fallen
Seattle

 

[Gotham Gator]

A bit about the schedules of the Elite and Nearly Elite. Here are the rankings of each team's opponents according to this week's MLS Power Rankings.

Atlanta: 2, 5, @9, @10, 15, @21, 23
NYCFC: @1, @3, 8, 10, 12, @13, 16, 18
Toronto: @9, 11, @17, 18, @19
Sporting KC: 2, @10, 14, @16, 19, @20, 23
Dallas: 12, @13, 14, 18, 19, 23
LAFC: @1, @10, @14, @15, @17, @18
New Jersey: @8, 12, 17, @18, 20, 21

 

[mgarbowski]

A bit about the schedules of the Elite and Nearly Elite. Here are the rankings of each team's opponents according to this week's MLS Power Rankings.

Atlanta: 2, 5, @9, @10, 15, @21, 23
NYCFC: @1, @3, 8, 10, 12, @13, 16, 18
Toronto: @9, 11, @17, 18, @19
Sporting KC: 2, @10, 14, @16, 19, @20, 23
Dallas: 12, @13, 14, 18, 19, 23
LAFC: @1, @10, @14, @15, @17, @18
New Jersey: @8, 12, 17, @18, 20, 21

I just wanna than Gotham Gator for posting something on a really quiet forum day. Is everyone at that training thing or what?

On the substance, Atlanta and NYC really have had the toughest schedule so far, and ours the hardest when you add in H/A effects especially.

Also, you dropped Columbus and Vancouver from the list. Maybe it's worth adding a "dropped" category just to keep track?

 

[Gotham Gator]

I just wanna than Gotham Gator for posting something on a really quiet forum day. Is everyone at that training thing or what?

On the substance, Atlanta and NYC really have had the toughest schedule so far, and ours the hardest when you add in H/A effects especially.

Also, you dropped Columbus and Vancouver from the list. Maybe it's worth adding a "dropped" category just to keep track?

Happy to help keep up forum momentum. First slow work day in weeks.

How about a "Slipping" category to distinguish teams like Columbus and Vancouver from those who have "Fallen" - i.e. Seattle?

The strength of schedule questions are really interesting to me. I used the Power Rankings from the MLS site because I think that's a lot more reliable than the standings at this stage. They've got the Red Bulls and Toronto at #6 and #7 for example, as opposed to their Supporters' Shield places of #12 and #23 respectively.

I think the hardest schedule so far this year might be either RSL or the Galaxy. Of the 7 teams on my list, RSL has played 5 and the Galaxy 4, with a one of RSL's games against below full strength RBNJ.

Against teams outside the Elite and Near Elite, LA Galaxy have 7 points from 3 games, and RSL have 6 points from 2 games. RSL also beat the New Jersey B-team. You have to wonder if the Galaxy might go on a roll at some point when their schedule gets easier and they get healthier or if RSL might start moving into playoff position.

LA Galaxy: 1, @2, 3, 5, 12, @15, @20
Real SLC: @2, @4, 5, 6, @7, 15, 19

 

[SoupInNYC]

I think the hardest schedule so far this year might be either RSL or the Galaxy. Of the 7 teams on my list, RSL has played 5 and the Galaxy 4, with a one of RSL's games against below full strength RBNJ.

Against teams outside the Elite and Near Elite, LA Galaxy have 7 points from 3 games, and RSL have 6 points from 2 games. RSL also beat the New Jersey B-team. You have to wonder if the Galaxy might go on a roll at some point when their schedule gets easier and they get healthier or if RSL might start moving into playoff position.

LA Galaxy: 1, @2, 3, 5, 12, @15, @20
Real SLC: @2, @4, 5, 6, @7, 15, 19

These are very valid points. I would expect at some point for LAG to start to put things together, they just have too many talented pieces. Their biggest questions are on the back line and Sigi IMO. Perhaps they can grab a CB mid-season, but it looks like they may still be stuck with Sigi.

RSL is an interesting case. They have a lot of young talent, but are probably a year or two out of contending. I think they probably make a late run this year, but fall just short of the playoff line in the West, before making a larger jump next year.

 

[Gotham Gator]

A bit about the schedules of the Elite and Nearly Elite. Here are the rankings of each team's opponents according to this week's MLS Power Rankings.

Atlanta: 2, 5, @9, @10, 15, @21, 23
NYCFC: @1, @3, 8, 10, 12, @13, 16, 18
Toronto: @9, 11, @17, 18, @19
Sporting KC: 2, @10, 14, @16, 19, @20, 23
Dallas: 12, @13, 14, 18, 19, 23
LAFC: @1, @10, @14, @15, @17, @18
New Jersey: @8, 12, 17, @18, 20, 21

Here is the average ranking faced for each team.

Atlanta: 12.14
NYCFC: 10.13
Toronto: 14.80
Sporting KC: 13.00
---
Dallas: 16.50
LAFC: 12.50
New Jersey: 16.00
===
LA Galaxy: 8.29
Real SLC: 8.29

 

[Christopher Jee]

I just wanna than Gotham Gator for posting something on a really quiet forum day. Is everyone at that training thing or what?

Word. Thanks Gotham Gator .

I was gonna you call out for saying that SKC's coach is Greg Vanney, but that's just such a comically-small nitpick that I wasn't going to bother. And then I said "what the hell, it's a really slow day on the forums" so nitpicking it is.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Word. Thanks Gotham Gator .

I was gonna you call out for saying that SKC's coach is Greg Vanney, but that's just such a comically-small nitpick that I wasn't going to bother. And then I said "what the hell, it's a really slow day on the forums" so nitpicking it is.

Nitpick away. Silly mistake.

Vanny, Vermes. Got my coach Vs mixed up. At least I didn't say it was Vieira!

 

[Gotham Gator]

I decided to calculate your schedule ranking index based on Power Rankings for Dallas.

12, @13, 14, 18, 19, 22 = 16.33
And only one of those on the road. For reference the NYC score is 10.13, with most on the road.

You need to fine tune your index by assigning a pulled-from-random but defensible multiplier for Away games.

In any event, their schedule has been very soft to date.

I've thought about that. It would make their schedule look even easier and LAFC's a lot tougher. In the long run, this kind of thing should even out, but early in the season there can be some substantial differences, as we have seen.

One way to do it is to add some number to home games. The theory being that playing a certain team at home is approximately as difficult as playing a different (easier) team on the road. Figure out the average difference in that home/away analysis, and that's the number you add to home games to adjust for teams with unbalanced schedules.

Maybe I will set something up in this thread and use interested forum members as guinea pigs.

 

[Gotham Gator]

If you want to help with the Home Game Handicapping Project, please answer the following questions. Just give a quick, best answer. Don't spend time researching or thinking too deeply. Thanks.

1. Playing Dallas at home is roughly as difficult as playing which team on the road:
A. Orlando
B. Red Bulls
C. Portland
D. Galaxy

2. Playing the LA Galaxy at home is roughly as difficult as playing which team on the road:
A. Vancouver
B. Montreal
C. Columbus
D. New England

3. Playing San Jose on the road is roughly as difficult as playing which team at home:
A. Seattle
B. Orlando
C. LA Galaxy
D. Portland

4. Playing Columbus on the road is roughly as difficult as playing which team at home:
A. Toronto
B. Houston
C. LAFC
D. Sporting KC

 

[mgarbowski]

If you want to help with the Home Game Handicapping Project, please answer the following questions. Just give a quick, best answer. Don't spend time researching or thinking too deeply. Thanks.

1. Playing Dallas at home is roughly as difficult as playing which team on the road:
A. Orlando
B. Red Bulls
C. Portland
D. Galaxy

2. Playing the LA Galaxy at home is roughly as difficult as playing which team on the road:
A. Vancouver
B. Montreal
C. Columbus
D. New England

3. Playing San Jose on the road is roughly as difficult as playing which team at home:
A. Seattle
B. Orlando
C. LA Galaxy
D. Portland

4. Playing Columbus on the road is roughly as difficult as playing which team at home:
A. Toronto
B. Houston
C. LAFC
D. Sporting KC

A, A, A, A

 

[Ulrich]

If you want to help with the Home Game Handicapping Project, please answer the following questions. Just give a quick, best answer. Don't spend time researching or thinking too deeply. Thanks.

1. Playing Dallas at home is roughly as difficult as playing which team on the road:
A. Orlando
B. Red Bulls
C. Portland
D. Galaxy

2. Playing the LA Galaxy at home is roughly as difficult as playing which team on the road:
A. Vancouver
B. Montreal
C. Columbus
D. New England

3. Playing San Jose on the road is roughly as difficult as playing which team at home:
A. Seattle
B. Orlando
C. LA Galaxy
D. Portland

4. Playing Columbus on the road is roughly as difficult as playing which team at home:
A. Toronto
B. Houston
C. LAFC
D. Sporting KC

Not sure that’s the right way to approach it. Not saying this is, and any math/statistics forum members should chime in, but just approach it purely as a math multiplier.

Any results at home are straight-up results with a multiplier if (x1) - it could be argued that a tie at home should be penalized, but I’m trying to simplify it for this round.

Points earned away should be worth more, but not so much that it skews everything, so try plugging in (x1.25), so a tie is effectively worth 1.25 pts and a win is worth 3.75 pts. This will give value to securing results away and differentiated teams that have played many away games from those that have played a lot at home. And maybe 1.25 is too high in the whole scheme of things.

Then for position in the single table, use a multiplier of (x1.0) for the SS table #1 and (x0.99) for #2, (x0.98) for #3, or some variation of that.

This way, it’s not so much of an eye test and more of a real algorithm.

 

[Christopher Jee]

Not sure that’s the right way to approach it. Not saying this is, and any math/statistics forum members should chime in, but just approach it purely as a math multiplier.

Any results at home are straight-up results with a multiplier if (x1) - it could be argued that a tie at home should be penalized, but I’m trying to simplify it for this round.

Points earned away should be worth more, but not so much that it skews everything, so try plugging in (x1.25), so a tie is effectively worth 1.25 pts and a win is worth 3.75 pts. This will give value to securing results away and differentiated teams that have played many away games from those that have played a lot at home. And maybe 1.25 is too high in the whole scheme of things.

Then for position in the single table, use a multiplier of (x1.0) for the SS table #1 and (x0.99) for #2, (x0.98) for #3, or some variation of that.

This way, it’s not so much of an eye test and more of a real algorithm.

Is it relatively easy to pull home vs away PPG for 2017 and average across teams?