The MLS Elite

[mgarbowski]

You need to fine tune your index by assigning a pulled-from-random but defensible multiplier for Away games.

If you want to help with the Home Game Handicapping Project, please answer the following questions. Just give a quick, best answer. Don't spend time researching or thinking too deeply. Thanks.

1. Playing Dallas at home is roughly as difficult as playing which team on the road:
A. Orlando
B. Red Bulls
C. Portland
D. Galaxy

2. Playing the LA Galaxy at home is roughly as difficult as playing which team on the road:
A. Vancouver
B. Montreal
C. Columbus
D. New England

3. Playing San Jose on the road is roughly as difficult as playing which team at home:
A. Seattle
B. Orlando
C. LA Galaxy
D. Portland

4. Playing Columbus on the road is roughly as difficult as playing which team at home:
A. Toronto
B. Houston
C. LAFC
D. Sporting KC

Not sure that’s the right way to approach it. Not saying this is, and any math/statistics forum members should chime in, but just approach it purely as a math multiplier.

Any results at home are straight-up results with a multiplier if (x1) - it could be argued that a tie at home should be penalized, but I’m trying to simplify it for this round.

Points earned away should be worth more, but not so much that it skews everything, so try plugging in (x1.25), so a tie is effectively worth 1.25 pts and a win is worth 3.75 pts. This will give value to securing results away and differentiated teams that have played many away games from those that have played a lot at home. And maybe 1.25 is too high in the whole scheme of things.

Then for position in the single table, use a multiplier of (x1.0) for the SS table #1 and (x0.99) for #2, (x0.98) for #3, or some variation of that.

This way, it’s not so much of an eye test and more of a real algorithm.

Is it relatively easy to pull home vs away PPG for 2017 and average across teams?

First, when I told Gator he needs to do this it was in jest, unless he wants to. Not that I'm worried he feels compelled by my suggestion, but I just want that out there.
Second, I think Ulrich and Mr. Jee are on the right track. It was easy for me to pull the H/A split for interconference games last year because I have that all tracked. Everybody went a combined 1.91 PPG at Home and only 0.83 Away. I doubt this is a good proxy for the entire season because interconference play means longer travel, but that is 2.31 ratio. If it were the right ratio that would mean dividing the value of playing any team away by that 2.31. But I think Ulrich is right and the actual ratio, whatever it is, should be collapsed somewhat or the skew would get too extreme.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Well, the analysis I’ve been working with on strength of schedule is based on standings in the Power Rankings, and not points earned. So, adjustments based on points-per-game earned home or away don’t plug in cleanly at all.

 

[dummyrun]

https://twitter.com/x/status/991697571490955264

The top four here look pretty reasonable but things get dubious after that. Gotham Gator, you ready to bump LAFC up to elite status after the Nguyen deal? Don't forget they've got Horta coming this summer, too.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Not yet. Let's see how it plays out on the field.

 

[Fake Jew]

https://twitter.com/x/status/991697571490955264

The top four here look pretty reasonable but things get dubious after that. Gotham Gator, you ready to bump LAFC up to elite status after the Nguyen deal? Don't forget they've got Horta coming this summer, too.

I want to see how they react to midseason injuries.

 

[Fantazma]

https://twitter.com/x/status/991697571490955264

The top four here look pretty reasonable but things get dubious after that. Gotham Gator, you ready to bump LAFC up to elite status after the Nguyen deal? Don't forget they've got Horta coming this summer, too.

galaxy too high, portland too i think ( even though they kicked our ass)

 

[dummyrun]

galaxy too high, portland too i think ( even though they kicked our ass)

Houston's way too low, too.

 

[dummyrun]

I want to see how they react to midseason injuries.

Well they just got their first. Ureña's going to be a big loss.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Matt Doyle weighs in with something similar to the MLS Elite: the "Tiers of MLS".

His first tier: Atlanta, New Jersey, LAFC, NYCFC, Sporting KC.
He's got Toronto kind of sitting half a notch below that.
His next tier: Columbus, Orlando, Dallas

https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2018/05/14/armchair-analyst-all-23-mls-teams-ranked-tier-revisited

 

[LionNYC]

Matt Doyle weighs in with something similar to the MLS Elite: the "Tiers of MLS".

His first tier: Atlanta, New Jersey, LAFC, NYCFC, Sporting KC.
He's got Toronto kind of sitting half a notch below that.
His next tier: Columbus, Orlando, Dallas

https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2018/05/14/armchair-analyst-all-23-mls-teams-ranked-tier-revisited

Important to note he says the order is based of he thinks the Supporters Shield will stack up. So we’re third in the East?

Lol. Again Doyle is stupid when it comes to NYCFC.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Important to note he says the order is based of he thinks the Supporters Shield will stack up. So we’re third in the East?

Lol. Again Doyle is stupid when it comes to NYCFC.

I disagree with him, but I definitely think there's a valid argument there for him. We are third in the East in PPG and just .01 PPG ahead of 4th at the moment.

 

[mgarbowski]

Important to note he says the order is based of he thinks the Supporters Shield will stack up. So we’re third in the East?

Lol. Again Doyle is stupid when it comes to NYCFC.

I disagree with him, but I definitely think there's a valid argument there for him. We are third in the East in PPG and just .01 PPG ahead of 4th at the moment.

You have to walk pretty far out of your way to interpret this article as an insult. He has us ranked in the Top Tier. He says he lists teams "mostly in the order I think they'll finish, but what really matters is the tier designation" so treating the order as all-important is a mistake. Plus NYC is currently 3rd place in the table, and 3rd place in PPG (as Soup noted). Plus he mentions the very tough schedule, and the injuries. And myself, I hope for 1st, expect at least a bye, but I can't say a third place finish is out of the question.

Finally, he says this: "Vieira is suicidally stubborn about playing from the back: I've never seen anyone play into RBNY's hands as much as NYCFC did last weekend. It was brutal." That's pure forum talk.

I say:

 

[LionNYC]

You have to walk pretty far out of your way to interpret this article as an insult. He has us ranked in the Top Tier. He says he lists teams "mostly in the order I think they'll finish, but what really matters is the tier designation" so treating the order as all-important is a mistake. Plus NYC is currently 3rd place in the table, and 3rd place in PPG (as Soup noted). Plus he mentions the very tough schedule, and the injuries. And myself, I hope for 1st, expect at least a bye, but I can't say a third place finish is out of the question.

Finally, he says this: "Vieira is suicidally stubborn about playing from the back: I've never seen anyone play into RBNY's hands as much as NYCFC did last weekend. It was brutal." That's pure forum talk.

I say:

On a side note that gif now does apply to Arielle Castillo, formerly of MLS Digital, and now Man City US social media producer.

 

[Keith Putnam]

So, this is a different kind of "elite" than the thread was started to discuss, but Paul Tenorio has an article in The Athletic claiming that the owners of some of the more cheapskate teams are pushing to eliminate the third DP slot.

https://theathletic.com/547925/2018...pending-owners-to-dictate-the-leagues-future/

A league source with knowledge of discussions confirmed a report that MLS is considering eliminating the third designated player spot or potentially capping the spend at $1.5 million, the same ceiling as Targeted Allocation Money. It’s not a done deal, but it’s being discussed.​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1044673215623237637

 

[Shwafta]

Would you prefer to see RB or ATL win the SS this year?
I'm kinda tilting towards RB because I don't want to see ATL's smug "We're only two years old and we win shit without trying hard at all!" but at the same time it's RB...

 

[Ulrich]

Would you prefer to see RB or ATL win the SS this year?
I'm kinda tilting towards RB because I don't want to see ATL's smug "We're only two years old and we win shit without trying hard at all!" but at the same time it's RB...

Never RB. Ever. For anything.

 

[canchon]

Would you prefer to see RB or ATL win the SS this year?
I'm kinda tilting towards RB because I don't want to see ATL's smug "We're only two years old and we win shit without trying hard at all!" but at the same time it's RB...

ATL. Yes, ATL will be smug and it’s fans will be insufferable, but RBNJ winning is saying your main rival wins. If RBNJ wins - they have the title, the stadium, the H2H record...pretty much dark times for the NYCFC side of the rivalry.

Plus, ATL winning might mean that Tata, Almiron and Josef all run for the money, meaning they won’t be the same team next year.

 

[Shwafta]

ATL. Yes, ATL will be smug and it’s fans will be insufferable, but RBNJ winning is saying your main rival wins. If RBNJ wins - they have the title, the stadium, the H2H record...pretty much dark times for the NYCFC side of the rivalry.

Plus, ATL winning might mean that Tata, Almiron and Josef all run for the money, meaning they won’t be the same team next year.

I mean, I'm still rooting for ATL to win it, but there's something sickening inside about MLS's hardon for ATL and the fact that they get whatever they want and it's annoying, and it's kinda making me feel like I want neither to win.

TL;DR:
Why isn't NYCFC the one on top? :c

 

[canchon]

Yeah I forgot, the MLS hardon for ATL will also be tough to deal with, MLS HQ wants ATL to win so bad.