2019 By The Numbers: There's A City In My Mind, Come Along

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mgarbowski

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This Beat Goes On
Busy week so the text and commentary will be slight.

For this first time this year, NYCFC has played more games (26) than there have been weeks in the season. Still a couple to make up though, as this year has only 31 weeks with the playoff shift.

This stat is not original to me, but NYCFC is 11-2-3 (2.25 PPG) when Heber plays at least 60 minutes and 2-3-5 (1.10 PPG) when he does not.

The charts:
I dropped 4 lines from the bottom of the possibilities chart, and frankly, 52 and even 55 seem barely possible. Both would entail a ridiculous collapse.
Screen Shot 2019-08-27 at 7.28.15 PM.png
Screen Shot 2019-08-27 at 7.32.09 PM.png
Screen Shot 2019-08-24 at 11.33.03 PM.png


Two-game week so 2 of these. I started doing it at 16 games. NYC has been on top by itself 5 weeks, including the last 4 in a row, and tied twice: once with Atlanta (Wk16) and once with Philly (Wk19). The Union was on top the other 4 weeks.
Screen Shot 2019-08-21 at 10.07.38 PM.pngScreen Shot 2019-08-24 at 11.26.54 PM.png

East-2019-08-26.png

NYCFC has clinched over Cincinnati and Columbus.

Next Magic Numbers: Chicago 2, Orlando 6, Montreal 6.
 
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Shwafta

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This Beat Goes On
Busy week so the text and commentary will be slight.

For this first time this year, NYCFC has played more games (26) than there have been weeks in the season. Still a couple to make up though, as this year has only 31 weeks with the playoff shift.

This stat is not original to me, but NYCFC is 11-2-3 (2.25 PPG) when Heber plays at least 60 minutes and 2-3-5 (1.10 PPG) when he does not.

The charts:
I dropped 4 lines from the bottom of the possibilities chart, and frankly, 52 and even 55 seem barely possible. Both would entail a ridiculous collapse.
View attachment 10177
View attachment 10176
View attachment 10179


Two-game week so 2 of these. I started doing it at 16 games. NYC has been on top by itself 5 weeks, including the last 4 in a row, and tied twice: once with Atlanta (Wk16) and once with Philly (Wk19). The Union was on top the other 4 weeks.
View attachment 10181View attachment 10180

View attachment 10178

NYCFC has clinched over Cincinnati and Columbus.

Next Magic Numbers: Chicago 2, Orlando 6, Montreal 6.
So:
A single win puts us over Chicago... And if we win and Orlando and Montreal lose even one game, we finish above them. This means we can qualify for the playoffs this saturday if things go well!
-Orlando is bound to lose to Dallas
- Montreal vs DC? idk.
 
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Gotham Gator

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Schedule difficulty for the stretch run.

In the 3 team race to top the East, Philly has it the hardest from here on out, while Atlanta and NYC are about the same. Meanwhile, Montreal has an edge on the other teams trying to finish above the line.

In the West, where 7 teams are jockeying for spots 2-8, Portland has a big edge with all the home games. Seattle and RSL have schedules more favorable than average. Meanwhile, Minnesota and San Jose have the two toughest remaining schedules, and LA has a rough finish as well.



 

mgarbowski

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Schedule difficulty for the stretch run.

In the 3 team race to top the East, Philly has it the hardest from here on out, while Atlanta and NYC are about the same. Meanwhile, Montreal has an edge on the other teams trying to finish above the line.

In the West, where 7 teams are jockeying for spots 2-8, Portland has a big edge with all the home games. Seattle and RSL have schedules more favorable than average. Meanwhile, Minnesota and San Jose have the two toughest remaining schedules, and LA has a rough finish as well.



Until I saw the article this comes from, I did not realize that Minnesota still has both games against LAFC left. But if they can win their other 2 homes games (RSL and SKC) and away at Houston, they should be in decent shape, with maybe a couple of draws added in.

NYCFC's remaining SOS will just keep getting worse because the next 4 games are all easier than the last 4 using the H/A PPG metric. The current SOS of the last 4 games is 1.75.
 
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Gotham Gator

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Until I saw the article this comes from, I did not realize that Minnesota still has both games against LAFC left. But if they can win their other 2 homes games (RSL and SKC) and away at Houston, they should be in decent shape, with maybe a couple of draws added in.

NYCFC's remaining SOS will just keep getting worse because the next 4 games are all easier than the last 4 using the H/A PPG metric. The current SOS of the last 4 games is 1.75.
Yep. We have got to stockpile points the next few games - and we need to do that when not at full strength.
 

adam

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Yep. We have got to stockpile points the next few games - and we need to do that when not at full strength.
The 2 international break matches is where we catch up with our games in hand. So either we pick up those hypothetical points we’ve been talking about the last 3 months and build a cushion in 1st. Or we’re stuck in a tight race the last 4 matches.
 

Shwafta

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The 2 international break matches is where we catch up with our games in hand. So either we pick up those hypothetical points we’ve been talking about the last 3 months and build a cushion in 1st. Or we’re stuck in a tight race the last 4 matches.
We're stuck in a tight race no matter what happens - Unless Philly beats ATL and we win VAN, NE, and TOR.

...I just want to point out, not to be pessimistic or anything, but our biggest win streak is 4 in a row. We are currently on 3 in a row (CIN - CLB - RB). If we win all three we'd be on 6 wins in a row, which would be cooool, but I don't know if we can do it.
 

mgarbowski

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We're stuck in a tight race no matter what happens - Unless Philly beats ATL and we win VAN, NE, and TOR.

...I just want to point out, not to be pessimistic or anything, but our biggest win streak is 4 in a row. We are currently on 3 in a row (CIN - CLB - RB). If we win all three we'd be on 6 wins in a row, which would be cooool, but I don't know if we can do it.
Counterpoint: last year Orlando won 6 in a row and they sucked. Our suspensions and call-ups hurt, but we're in a very favorable part of the schedule (as was Orlando during their run last year). It's about time we won more than 4 straight.
Also last year -- Seattle had separate win streaks of 9 games and 5 games and they ended up with 59 points, which is kind of where we expect to finish, if not higher. The point being a 6-game streak is not something that a club can expect every year, but league wide they're not rarities and not even limited to the very best teams like LAFC.
 

Shwafta

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Counterpoint: last year Orlando won 6 in a row and they sucked. Our suspensions and call-ups hurt, but we're in a very favorable part of the schedule (as was Orlando during their run last year). It's about time we won more than 4 straight.
Also last year -- Seattle had separate win streaks of 9 games and 5 games and they ended up with 59 points, which is kind of where we expect to finish, if not higher. The point being a 6-game streak is not something that a club can expect every year, but league wide they're not rarities and not even limited to the very best teams like LAFC.
I'd be elated if we got a 6-in-a-row streak, but I'm saying if it doesn't happen we shouldn't be too hard on the team- it's hard to win that many in a row.


...did Orlando really win 6 in a row last year? damn.
 
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adam

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We're stuck in a tight race no matter what happens - Unless Philly beats ATL and we win VAN, NE, and TOR.

...I just want to point out, not to be pessimistic or anything, but our biggest win streak is 4 in a row. We are currently on 3 in a row (CIN - CLB - RB). If we win all three we'd be on 6 wins in a row, which would be cooool, but I don't know if we can do it.
We're lost 4 of our last 13 . Portland extremely shorthanded. NJ on referee error. RSL shorthanded. At Atlanta where almost no one wins.

Screenshot 2019-08-30 10.48.47.png
 
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The Toe

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I love that this weekend the marquee game is ATL vs. Philly for 1st place, but if they both tie and we win, we'll actually claim that crown.
 
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Shwafta

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We're lost 4 of our last 13 . Portland extremely shorthanded. NJ on referee error. RSL shorthanded. At Atlanta where almost no one wins.

View attachment 10191
The keys here are "shorthanded" and that's what we are. :/ We'll see what happens, and don't forget NE is our bogey team at home.

I love that this weekend the marquee game is ATL vs. Philly for 1st place, but if they both tie and we win, we'll actually claim that crown.
I mean, it's still quite the marquee game! What happens if we lose and ATL win? ugh, I don't want to think about it.
:)
 

mgarbowski

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Luck is the residue of design.

SMH. Now I’m starting to sound like Christopher Jee Christopher Jee
It goes both ways. Red Bulls regularly do quick throw-ins and set piece restarts, and we have a history of being less than attentive to them on occasion. When Atlanta won in Portland, one of the MLS writers noted that the Portland ball kids were very quick to get Portland players the ball on throw-ins and such, but that Atlanta was so disciplined it never caused them any problems. I didn't see that game to verify, but I wish we were always as disciplined as Atlanta was represented to be.