Been thinking about the potential Larin -> Benfica for $10M rumor.... a sale like this makes *zero* sense for the club while a lot of sense for the league.
1. Since Larin was drafted within the previous 3 years, the rules applying to him are different than the normal 2/3 payout of a "regular" squad player signed during a transfer window:
Since we're halfway through the 2nd season, let's say Orlando gets 2/5 of the transfer. That would end up being $4M total of which $650K could be GAM.
2. As a newly drafted player, Larin's salary for 2016 is $135K - well below a DP/TAM level and not taking one of the spots while arguably being just as effective.
3. To replace Larin, Orlando would have to pay a minimum of $200K+ and likely closer to $400-700K for a guy that effective and young. To do this would use up all of the GAM received in the transfer. The alternative would be to make his replacement a DP, to keep the Cap hit low, but Orlando already has (3) DPs in Kaka, Rivas (youth), Rochez (youth) - so this doesn't work (for them).
4. If Larin is replaced with a player of comparable ability, they could theoretically cover the CAP hit this year with the GAM, but then the following years would be dicey - whereas Larin would still be operating under his sustainable initial contract for likely 2-3 more years.
5. The club would still have the remainder of the $4M transfer surplus ($3.35M), so they would have fuller coffers, but is that worth the headache of replacing Larin?
6. MLS reaps $6M from the transfer..... they WIN with the deal.
7. What is interesting, is the paragraph that states what the club's ($3.35M) surplus can be used for:
I have always assume the 2nd bullet point - misc club operating/infrastructure expenses (not payroll) - but the first bullet point is interesting a little ambiguous. what exactly are the "costs" they are referring to: paid transfer fee, salary (above the max Cap Hit $ MLS pays), etc. If transfer fee, that's a nice point since MLS hates to fork over $$ for that and instead opts for out-of-contract players.
As a side note, everything written above also applies to the potential transfer of Harrison. NYCFC would get the short end of the stick to let him go and try to replace him. Their strategy should be to resign him, when this contract expires, as a youth DP for at least 1 year to keep the Cap hit at $150K. After that, depending on his salary he'd either remain a DP or be a TAM player.
Unless MLS changes the rules so that more than $650K can be used as GAM, it doesn't make sense for any team to ever give up a GA/HG/Drafted player while they're still in the middle of their first contract. Never ever.
