Good job FootyLovin
#1 is skewed because Metrostars chose Steve Shak in the 2000 draft.... that pretty much jinxed everything.One other cut of this data I found interesting. Look at quality by where you pick in the draft. Take their same measure of Excellent (flawed though it might be) with a small caveat - I added Dempsey and Guzan. Players who are good enough to sell to European sides should unquestionably be considered a success for the team who drafted them even if they didn't feature in enough MLS games. Here are the frequencies of finding an excellent pick at each draft position.
Pick / # of players who turned out excellent from 2001-2011 (more recent years seem to me to be too limited a data set to include)
1 / 1
2 / 8
3 / 7
4 / 5
5 / 6
6 / 4
7 / 4
8 / 3
9 / 5
10 / 4
11 / 4
I think it interesting that the #1 has almost never lived up to expectation over the long term and that as much as you think you know how deep the draft is, you are just as likely to get a longterm quality player picking 9th as you are picking 4th.
Interesting that 2011 was when the homegrown players started to be taken out of the draft. So how many of those excellent players in your chart are now classified as homegrown and unavailable?One other cut of this data I found interesting. Look at quality by where you pick in the draft. Take their same measure of Excellent (flawed though it might be) with a small caveat - I added Dempsey and Guzan. Players who are good enough to sell to European sides should unquestionably be considered a success for the team who drafted them even if they didn't feature in enough MLS games. Here are the frequencies of finding an excellent pick at each draft position.
Pick / # of players who turned out excellent from 2001-2011 (more recent years seem to me to be too limited a data set to include)
1 / 1
2 / 8
3 / 7
4 / 5
5 / 6
6 / 4
7 / 4
8 / 3
9 / 5
10 / 4
11 / 4
I think it interesting that the #1 has almost never lived up to expectation over the long term and that as much as you think you know how deep the draft is, you are just as likely to get a longterm quality player picking 9th as you are picking 4th.
Jack Harrison.... period. He's the type of player you can mold a team around. Lampard and Pirlo are gone in a year so the midfield will be less cluttered and the DP slots can be used on Defense and Attack. But the chance to have three amazing young talents like Poku, Mix, and Harrison in the midfield is something very few MLS teams could boast about.There are some rumors floating around that we are in the mix for the #1. Who knows if there is any truth to them, but since it appears we are picking #4 in a draft with three exciting players, it seems more fun to get everyone's opinion on who they would pick if we were at #1. In part, it depends on what we traded away to get the pick and who else we plan to sign, but both those are unknowable, so let's assume we have the roster as it stands today. My thoughts:
- If you think Yaro is a true CB, then I think he has to be the pick given our current roster. The handful of sources who have actually seen him play seem tossed up on this topic, but presumably Reyna and Vieira have a view one way or the other.
- If you don't think Yaro is a CB, I would probably go with Vincent, assuming you feel he truly is a day one starter. LB is a black hole for us right now. It would be so nice to have someone who is a better defender than Angelino and a better athlete than Wingert, and the write-ups suggest he might tick both those boxes.
- Harrison is probably third on my list from a needs perspective. We need wingers, which he might be, but playing time upfront is going to be crowded and inevitably we are going to have some awkward system there, at least assuming we want to get our best players on the field. There is a lot of noise that we like him due to the whole homegrown thing, but I think it is reading too much into that situation to assume that just because we tried to get a homegrown claim on him, that he is our #1 choice. We would have tried to get a homegrown claim on any of these guys if we had any sort of a credible argument.
Thoughts on who you would take and who the team would take?
But the chance to have three amazing young talents like Poku, Mix, and Harrison in the midfield is something very few MLS teams could boast about.
I would not be surprised if Mix has a no-trade clause in his contract as a way to protect himself when he chose to come stateside to MLS. If so, he'd have to agree to this tomfoolery to allow it to happen.Just saw this and went wtf is he writing about? Trading away Mix? I'm not a big mix fan but this is a bad idea.
http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2016/...2016-mls-superdraft-here-are-five-predictions
May have to add a few Garber bucks to top off what you said, but I could see that happening. Or add in Ballouchy since he's serviceable and cap-friendly, and every team is looking for that.Much more likely to trade McNamara than Mix. I would guess Mac+4 is about right for 1.
Kreis f'cked up the selection of priority among the various drafts.... he admitted afterwards that he was confused.Forgive me if this is common knowledge, bug does Mix being a national team player mean anything in terms of his attractiveness as a player. Like does it give them more cap space some how? or is it just a potential boost to ticket sales.
I was just looking at the old priority draft in which we choose to be first in line for mix over being first to get Larin and man that seems like a boneheaded move in hindsight. Larin by himself looks like the better player then Mix & shelton combined, especially when you consider he is making way less then mix. Might have even still had the chance at getting Mix (not sure), but even so, it would have been more opportunities for someone like Poku to play.
I was just looking at the old priority draft in which we choose to be first in line for mix over being first to get Larin and man that seems like a boneheaded move in hindsight.
Kreis did screw up, but at a later part in the process.Kreis f'cked up the selection of priority among the various drafts.... he admitted afterwards that he was confused.
The first part of this statement I completely agree with. The second part in bold I don't exactly.2. it's total hindsight. Nobody, nobody, back then, would have thought you could even hypothetically argue that Larin would turn out to be more valuable than Mix, or that Super Draft could be more valuable than Allocation order.
The first part of this statement I completely agree with. The second part in bold I don't exactly.
I don't see having one spot higher in the allocation order is worth picking lower in the superdraft. In the superdraft you absolutely get the player you want. In this case it would have been Larin. With one lower spot in the allocation order, you almost certainly will still be able to get the player you want that is on the allocation list, unless the team above you wants him. And if they do want him, and the player doesn't want to go there, then you can still get him.
Now, for sure back then I didn't think this because I had 0 clue about the rules and what was what. Potentially you could attribute my current opinion to hindsight, but I sincerely do not think so.