2016 Mls College Superdraft

One other cut of this data I found interesting. Look at quality by where you pick in the draft. Take their same measure of Excellent (flawed though it might be) with a small caveat - I added Dempsey and Guzan. Players who are good enough to sell to European sides should unquestionably be considered a success for the team who drafted them even if they didn't feature in enough MLS games. Here are the frequencies of finding an excellent pick at each draft position.

Pick / # of players who turned out excellent from 2001-2011 (more recent years seem to me to be too limited a data set to include)
1 / 1
2 / 8
3 / 7
4 / 5
5 / 6
6 / 4
7 / 4
8 / 3
9 / 5
10 / 4
11 / 4

I think it interesting that the #1 has almost never lived up to expectation over the long term and that as much as you think you know how deep the draft is, you are just as likely to get a longterm quality player picking 9th as you are picking 4th.
#1 is skewed because Metrostars chose Steve Shak in the 2000 draft.... that pretty much jinxed everything.
 
One other cut of this data I found interesting. Look at quality by where you pick in the draft. Take their same measure of Excellent (flawed though it might be) with a small caveat - I added Dempsey and Guzan. Players who are good enough to sell to European sides should unquestionably be considered a success for the team who drafted them even if they didn't feature in enough MLS games. Here are the frequencies of finding an excellent pick at each draft position.

Pick / # of players who turned out excellent from 2001-2011 (more recent years seem to me to be too limited a data set to include)
1 / 1
2 / 8
3 / 7
4 / 5
5 / 6
6 / 4
7 / 4
8 / 3
9 / 5
10 / 4
11 / 4

I think it interesting that the #1 has almost never lived up to expectation over the long term and that as much as you think you know how deep the draft is, you are just as likely to get a longterm quality player picking 9th as you are picking 4th.
Interesting that 2011 was when the homegrown players started to be taken out of the draft. So how many of those excellent players in your chart are now classified as homegrown and unavailable?
 
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There are some rumors floating around that we are in the mix for the #1. Who knows if there is any truth to them, but since it appears we are picking #4 in a draft with three exciting players, it seems more fun to get everyone's opinion on who they would pick if we were at #1. In part, it depends on what we traded away to get the pick and who else we plan to sign, but both those are unknowable, so let's assume we have the roster as it stands today. My thoughts:

- If you think Yaro is a true CB, then I think he has to be the pick given our current roster. The handful of sources who have actually seen him play seem tossed up on this topic, but presumably Reyna and Vieira have a view one way or the other.

- If you don't think Yaro is a CB, I would probably go with Vincent, assuming you feel he truly is a day one starter. LB is a black hole for us right now. It would be so nice to have someone who is a better defender than Angelino and a better athlete than Wingert, and the write-ups suggest he might tick both those boxes.

- Harrison is probably third on my list from a needs perspective. We need wingers, which he might be, but playing time upfront is going to be crowded and inevitably we are going to have some awkward system there, at least assuming we want to get our best players on the field. There is a lot of noise that we like him due to the whole homegrown thing, but I think it is reading too much into that situation to assume that just because we tried to get a homegrown claim on him, that he is our #1 choice. We would have tried to get a homegrown claim on any of these guys if we had any sort of a credible argument.

Thoughts on who you would take and who the team would take?
 
Here is an interesting article on the draft. It says we are one of the teams interested in trading up to the #1 pick and that we would most likely take Harrison if we did.

NYCFC is believed to be one of the teams most actively pursuing a move up from its No. 4 spot, especially now that it appears less and less likely that Harrison will slide to the fourth pick. NYCFC is in dire need of defensive help and could be interested in Yaro as well, but if the club does succeed in moving up to the No. 1 overall pick, Harrison would almost certainly be the choice.
http://www.goal.com/en-us/news/1110...s-draft?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
 
There are some rumors floating around that we are in the mix for the #1. Who knows if there is any truth to them, but since it appears we are picking #4 in a draft with three exciting players, it seems more fun to get everyone's opinion on who they would pick if we were at #1. In part, it depends on what we traded away to get the pick and who else we plan to sign, but both those are unknowable, so let's assume we have the roster as it stands today. My thoughts:

- If you think Yaro is a true CB, then I think he has to be the pick given our current roster. The handful of sources who have actually seen him play seem tossed up on this topic, but presumably Reyna and Vieira have a view one way or the other.

- If you don't think Yaro is a CB, I would probably go with Vincent, assuming you feel he truly is a day one starter. LB is a black hole for us right now. It would be so nice to have someone who is a better defender than Angelino and a better athlete than Wingert, and the write-ups suggest he might tick both those boxes.

- Harrison is probably third on my list from a needs perspective. We need wingers, which he might be, but playing time upfront is going to be crowded and inevitably we are going to have some awkward system there, at least assuming we want to get our best players on the field. There is a lot of noise that we like him due to the whole homegrown thing, but I think it is reading too much into that situation to assume that just because we tried to get a homegrown claim on him, that he is our #1 choice. We would have tried to get a homegrown claim on any of these guys if we had any sort of a credible argument.

Thoughts on who you would take and who the team would take?
Jack Harrison.... period. He's the type of player you can mold a team around. Lampard and Pirlo are gone in a year so the midfield will be less cluttered and the DP slots can be used on Defense and Attack. But the chance to have three amazing young talents like Poku, Mix, and Harrison in the midfield is something very few MLS teams could boast about.
 
But the chance to have three amazing young talents like Poku, Mix, and Harrison in the midfield is something very few MLS teams could boast about.

I think it moved.

seinfeld_episode018_337x233_040420061507.jpg
 
Reyna has pretty much said his top choice is Harrison (read the comments about drafting a foreign player)
 
Just saw this and went wtf is he writing about? Trading away Mix? I'm not a big mix fan but this is a bad idea.
http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2016/...2016-mls-superdraft-here-are-five-predictions
I would not be surprised if Mix has a no-trade clause in his contract as a way to protect himself when he chose to come stateside to MLS. If so, he'd have to agree to this tomfoolery to allow it to happen.

And seriously.... he's Shelton's roommate so there's another player that would voice his concern over this trade (not that it'd matter to management if that's what they want to do).
 
Much more likely to trade McNamara than Mix. I would guess Mac+4 is about right for 1.
May have to add a few Garber bucks to top off what you said, but I could see that happening. Or add in Ballouchy since he's serviceable and cap-friendly, and every team is looking for that.
 
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Forgive me if this is common knowledge, bug does Mix being a national team player mean anything in terms of his attractiveness as a player. Like does it give them more cap space some how? or is it just a potential boost to ticket sales.

I was just looking at the old priority draft in which we choose to be first in line for mix over being first to get Larin and man that seems like a boneheaded move in hindsight. Larin by himself looks like the better player then Mix & shelton combined, especially when you consider he is making way less then mix. Might have even still had the chance at getting Mix (not sure), but even so, it would have been more opportunities for someone like Poku to play.
 
Forgive me if this is common knowledge, bug does Mix being a national team player mean anything in terms of his attractiveness as a player. Like does it give them more cap space some how? or is it just a potential boost to ticket sales.

I was just looking at the old priority draft in which we choose to be first in line for mix over being first to get Larin and man that seems like a boneheaded move in hindsight. Larin by himself looks like the better player then Mix & shelton combined, especially when you consider he is making way less then mix. Might have even still had the chance at getting Mix (not sure), but even so, it would have been more opportunities for someone like Poku to play.
Kreis f'cked up the selection of priority among the various drafts.... he admitted afterwards that he was confused.
 
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I was just looking at the old priority draft in which we choose to be first in line for mix over being first to get Larin and man that seems like a boneheaded move in hindsight.
Kreis f'cked up the selection of priority among the various drafts.... he admitted afterwards that he was confused.
Kreis did screw up, but at a later part in the process.
http://www.sbnation.com/soccer/2014/9/24/6839689/orlando-city-nycfc-expansion-priority-draft

1. Orlando won the coin flip and got to pick first. It chose the Expansion Draft.
2. We chose Allocation order (which got us Mix, although Shea signed first, presumably we passed on him)
3. Orlando chose Super Draft.
4. Here is where Kreis messed up. He was supposed to choose USL/NASL player ranking but instead took Discovery. It was just an absolute brain lock, and he immediately said so before Orlando chose next, but MLS said no takebacks.
http://www.sbnation.com/soccer/2014...eis-mistake-mycfc-orlando-city-priority-draft

Now you can argue that picking Allocation over Super Draft was an error in judgment, but
1. it's not the famous undeniable error he admitted to, and
2. it's total hindsight. Nobody, nobody, back then, would have thought you could even hypothetically argue that Larin would turn out to be more valuable than Mix, or that Super Draft could be more valuable than Allocation order.
 
2. it's total hindsight. Nobody, nobody, back then, would have thought you could even hypothetically argue that Larin would turn out to be more valuable than Mix, or that Super Draft could be more valuable than Allocation order.
The first part of this statement I completely agree with. The second part in bold I don't exactly.

I don't see having one spot higher in the allocation order is worth picking lower in the superdraft. In the superdraft you absolutely get the player you want. In this case it would have been Larin. With one lower spot in the allocation order, you almost certainly will still be able to get the player you want that is on the allocation list, unless the team above you wants him. And if they do want him, and the player doesn't want to go there, then you can still get him.

Now, for sure back then I didn't think this because I had 0 clue about the rules and what was what. Potentially you could attribute my current opinion to hindsight, but I sincerely do not think so.
 
The first part of this statement I completely agree with. The second part in bold I don't exactly.

I don't see having one spot higher in the allocation order is worth picking lower in the superdraft. In the superdraft you absolutely get the player you want. In this case it would have been Larin. With one lower spot in the allocation order, you almost certainly will still be able to get the player you want that is on the allocation list, unless the team above you wants him. And if they do want him, and the player doesn't want to go there, then you can still get him.

Now, for sure back then I didn't think this because I had 0 clue about the rules and what was what. Potentially you could attribute my current opinion to hindsight, but I sincerely do not think so.

Fair rejoinder, but in terms of the record, I remember exactly zero posters and zero articles claiming we should have taken Super Draft over Allocation at the time. I just re-read the entire Priority Draft thread (it's amazing how short it is - the forum has grown). There was some limited discussion of the merit of allocation over Super Draft, but nobody really stood up and said this was a mistake. Maybe if there were more members then it would have become a debate. But it just wasn't. The big issue of discussion was the amateur hour feel to the proceedings and how it was ridiculous that we weren't allowed to change once we realized the truly dumb mistake. Plus a foreshadowing of "what is Reyna's job anyway?" which has been an ongoing theme for better or worse.
http://nycfcforums.com/index.php?threads/mls-expansion-priority-draft.1413/