2017 Projecting By The Numbers and Chasing A Narrative

NYCFC's Goal Differential reached +13 on June 29 after 18 games. It is +13 today. In the last 12 games NYCFC has given 16 goals and scored 16 goals.
In the first 18 games NYC scored 1.89 goals per game and gave up 1.17.
Since then NYCFC scores 1.33 goals per game and gave up 1.33.
After 18 games NYCFC's PPG was 1.833. In the 12 games since it is 1.58 and is now 1.733 overall.
 
  • Like
Reactions: adam
NYCFC's Goal Differential reached +13 on June 29 after 18 games. It is +13 today. In the last 12 games NYCFC has given 16 goals and scored 16 goals.
In the first 18 games NYC scored 1.89 goals per game and gave up 1.17.
Since then NYCFC scores 1.33 goals per game and gave up 1.33.
After 18 games NYCFC's PPG was 1.833. In the 12 games since it is 1.58 and is now 1.733 overall.

You add in all the times that PRO and video replay fucked us over. See the RB handball in the box and the Houston game. There's probably more and the points add up.
 
You add in all the times that PRO and video replay fucked us over. See the RB handball in the box and the Houston game. There's probably more and the points add up.

When you are at 0 GD over 12 games people spend a lot of time obsessing about the refs because every little thing counts so much. Atlanta's GD over the last 12 games is +20. Play like that and the refs don't matter. The refs didn't make NYCFC's goals per game drop by 0.66 after game 18. I agree we've had a notable number of bad calls, including yesterday. But if the team played as well as it should have, it would not have mattered.
 
But if the team played as well as it should have, it would not have mattered.
Pretty sure the team played as well as it could have, maybe even out-performed itself with a Maxi header goal, considering we had tweedle dumb and tweedle dumber running the midfield. Any other GK and we lose that match yesterday - the midfield was a sieve.
 
Yes, Atlanta may overtake us, but that's not a guarantee. Their schedule does get a little more difficult in terms of opposing teams

It will be something else if we need the Red Bulls to pull our keister out of the fire in the next to last game of the season, especially if they do it.
 
It will be something else if we need the Red Bulls to pull our keister out of the fire in the next to last game of the season, especially if they do it.
Toronto will not want to head into the playoffs with a loss - that last game will be knock-down drag-out intense. Atlanta will be in a dogfight.
 
When you are at 0 GD over 12 games people spend a lot of time obsessing about the refs because every little thing counts so much. Atlanta's GD over the last 12 games is +20. Play like that and the refs don't matter. The refs didn't make NYCFC's goals per game drop by 0.66 after game 18. I agree we've had a notable number of bad calls, including yesterday. But if the team played as well as it should have, it would not have mattered.

Forget GD, it's about points. Those two clear incidents would be 4 points added and no need to worry about Atlanta as much as we are right now.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Christopher Jee
Forget GD, it's about points. Those two clear incidents would be 4 points added and no need to worry about Atlanta as much as we are right now.
If NYCFC could score more than 1 goal per game you wouldn’t go on so much about the refs.

Or maybe I’m wrong.
Maybe you would.
 

The NYCFC account also RT'd this. I know it is reasonable to celebrate making the playoffs, but having to do it off that Atlanta win, which was just a terrible, terrible result for us, rankles.
How is our club always so tone deaf?

It’s like they intentionally troll their own fans.

I read things like the leaked emails, and I expect a club that has a considered approach to fans and how they will receive certain things.

All I’ll say is that the influence of those involved in the highest level strategy discussions must stop somewhere in the middle of the Atlantic because best I can tell, nothing but assholes handling fan related decisions and interactions here in NYC.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hivemind
How is our club always so tone deaf?

It’s like they intentionally troll their own fans.

I read things like the leaked emails, and I expect a club that has a considered approach to fans and how they will receive certain things.

All I’ll say is that the influence of those involved in the highest level strategy discussions must stop somewhere in the middle of the Atlantic because best I can tell, nothing but assholes handling fan related decisions and interactions here in NYC.

Because clinching the playoffs is absolutely worth celebrating. There are issues right now with our performance, but the club still has 52 points, is still in second place, and there's plenty of reason for optimism.
 
Because clinching the playoffs is absolutely worth celebrating. There are issues right now with our performance, but the club still has 52 points, is still in second place, and there's plenty of reason for optimism.
Only if you want to be willfully blind to what’s going on.

That’s just classic misdirection to appease the masses. I’ve never taken kindly to being treated as though I were too stupid to know when someone is trying get one over on me.
 
Only if you want to be willfully blind to what’s going on.

That’s just classic misdirection to appease the masses. I’ve never taken kindly to being treated as though I were too stupid to know when someone is trying get one over on me.

I don't know about you, but when the Yankees clinched a playoff berth yesterday I was thrilled even though they're really going for other things. Clinching a playoff spot is worth celebrating.

And I firmly believe the vast majority of our struggles are caused by the injuries, which allegedly should be (mostly) cleared up by the time we get close to the playoffs.

I say this with all due respect and not trying to antagonize: I also, have a different philosophy about sports than I think you do -- I follow this team because it's fun to be a fan of a sports team. I celebrate the wins, I'm frustrated and pissed over the losses, but I don't let it ruin my day. Sports are supposed to be fun, and being a sports fan is supposed to be fun. If I'm going to spend all my sports fan-time miserable, I don't know why I'd want to put myself through it.
 
I don't know about you, but when the Yankees clinched a playoff berth yesterday I was thrilled even though they're really going for other things. Clinching a playoff spot is worth celebrating.

And I firmly believe the vast majority of our struggles are caused by the injuries, which allegedly should be (mostly) cleared up by the time we get close to the playoffs.

I say this with all due respect and not trying to antagonize: I also, have a different philosophy about sports than I think you do -- I follow this team because it's fun to be a fan of a sports team. I celebrate the wins, I'm frustrated and pissed over the losses, but I don't let it ruin my day. Sports are supposed to be fun, and being a sports fan is supposed to be fun. If I'm going to spend all my sports fan-time miserable, I don't know why I'd want to put myself through it.
I think you have definitely have a different reaction. I don’t know about philosophy.


I don’t too much allow any of it to have an effect on me in the real world, other than being irritable for a bit after losses or happy after wins. Either is over in the real world by the time I get off the subway. (ETA: example - I’m vehemently shitposting about PV pissing down his leg again while in the real world, it’s just between Oktoberfest dances with my wife while she goes to the bathroom. It’s compartmentalized, and it’s how I like it.)

Being antiseptic as a fan on a fan board isn’t fun to me. I enjoy being a fan because I invest this limited budget of emotional capital. When the team performs poorly and the outlook is bleak, I expend that capital with frustration. When it’s good, I expend it on being positive.

Admittedly, my attitude is likely shaped by being a fan of an English club and the broader game before an NYC fan. But particularly the former part of that has taught me to be 1) unhappy without silverware and 2) highly cynical about the team.

And our club has done very little to encourage me to believe differently.

You’re welcome to be happy about a playoff berth. I don’t think that alone is good enough. And I find it off putting to see the club try to spin our disastrous last 4 weeks or so as anything positive. Sometimes, it’s okay to just shut the hell up.
 
  • Like
Reactions: JGarrettLieb
I think you have definitely have a different reaction. I don’t know about philosophy.


I don’t too much allow any of it to have an effect on me in the real world, other than being irritable for a bit after losses or happy after wins. Either is over in the real world by the time I get off the subway.

Being antiseptic as a fan on a fan board isn’t fun to me. I enjoy being a fan because I invest this limited budget of emotional capital. When the team performs poorly and the outlook is bleak, I expend that capital with frustration. When it’s good, I expend it on being positive.

Admittedly, my attitude is likely shaped by being a fan of an English club and the broader game before an NYC fan. But particularly the former part of that has taught me to be 1) unhappy without silverware and 2) highly cynical about the team.

And our club has done very little to encourage me to believe differently.

You’re welcome to be happy about a playoff berth. I don’t think that alone is good enough. And I find it off putting to see the club try to spin our disastrous last 4 weeks or so as anything positive. Sometimes, it’s okay to just shut the hell up.

I think that's all fair, I also think every single team in North America puts up a post like that when they clinch a playoff spot, no matter how bad a short-term skid they're in.

Hell, look at the Yankees in 2000. (Sorry, I'm a Yankees fan so they have a lot of my playoff experience). They were 3-15 in their last 18 games of the regular season. They were left for dead. Back-to-back titles, and they nearly blew their chance at even making the playoffs. Then they got into the playoffs and ended up winning the World Series.

Listen, this team could get knocked out of the bye and lose the play-in game. They have a three-game road trip, so the odds of getting back on track before the playoffs don't seem so likely. And yet, would you really be surprised to see them make a run once they get there? Are you betting against David Villa now that he has a supporting cast around him? I'm not.

I have faith in this team because we've seen what they're capable of when everyone's healthy. We've seen the fight they've shown all season. I'm just not willing to be so negative about a group that's given us so much this season. Four games to go, I love this time of year -- let's see what they're made of.
 
Listen, this team could get knocked out of the bye and lose the play-in game. They have a three-game road trip, so the odds of getting back on track before the playoffs don't seem so likely. And yet, would you really be surprised to see them make a run once they get there? Are you betting against David Villa now that he has a supporting cast around him? I'm not.
I am absolutely not feeling good about our club with Pirlo and TPFKAU playing.

It is exciting, or at least should be, but I don’t see much reason for positivity at this point. That in and of itself isn’t so bad. When we have weaknesses that were well documented and widely noted here and elsewhere and they continue without any apparent action by the football staff, it sucks.
 
  • Like
Reactions: JGarrettLieb
I am absolutely not feeling good about our club with Pirlo and TPFKAU playing.

It is exciting, or at least should be, but I don’t see much reason for positivity at this point. That in and of itself isn’t so bad. When we have weaknesses that were well documented and widely noted here and elsewhere and they continue without any apparent action by the football staff, it sucks.

Honestly, I agree with you about McNamara and Pirlo. We have to hope everyone gets healthy so we don't have to start those guys anymore. As long as we have our first-choice XI on the field, I'd put us up against anyone. Even Toronto.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Gotham Gator
My two cents after reading the previous posts... Gonna agree with Midas here. You can't expect this team to do anything in the playoffs when you about 4 goals in the previous 5 games. I can't even remember we had a convincing win.

Pirlo and Tommy should not be on the field together and, furthermore, Pirlo shouldn't be on the field again. We look slow out there and unmotivated. We don't finish in our opponent's third. I know we don't have the speed of Atlanta and we play differently but dear God, can we play with some urgency?

Maybe it's the long season, the lack of wins lately, and the disappointment of playing in a half filled baseball stadium, but I'm just burnt out at this point.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Paul and Ulrich
In the 14 games in which Pirlo has played 50 or more minutes NYCFC scores 1.21 goals and gets 1.07 PPG.
In the 16 games where Pirlo does not play 50 minutes NYCFC scores 2.06 goals and gets 2.31 PPG.

In the 16 games in which McNamara has played 50 or more minutes NYCFC scores 1.47 goals and gets 1.53 PPG.
In the 14 games where McNamara does not play 50 minutes NYCFC scores 1.87 goals and gets 1.93 PPG.

In the 25 games in which Ring has played 50 or more minutes NYCFC scores 1.76 goals and gets 1.76 PPG.
In the 5 games where Ring does not play 50 minutes NYCFC scores 1.20 goals and gets 1.60 PPG.

In the 10 games in which Herrera has played 50 or more minutes NYCFC scores 2.10 goals and gets 2.50 PPG.
In the 20 games where Herrera does not play 50 minutes NYCFC scores 1.45 goals and gets 1.35 PPG.
So, the takeaway from this is that Vieira should have started Herrera in the last game?

Very helpful. Thanks for that.