2017 Projecting By The Numbers and Chasing A Narrative

[Gotham Gator]

It will be something else if we need the Red Bulls to pull our keister out of the fire in the next to last game of the season, especially if they do it.

Yep.

And here's an interesting twist. If they fail to beat Atlanta, they might be dropping below the line depending on what Montreal does. So, if it comes down to that, which do you root for? Us getting the bye or New Jersey missing the playoffs? I am not a "cut off your nose to spite your face" kind of guy, so I want the bye, but NJ losing 6th place would be a nice consolation.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

On sportsclubstats, Atlanta has passed us as the favorite for #2 seed. They are at 51%, we are at 37%.

 

[Marito]

So, the takeaway from this is that Vieira should have started Herrera in the last game?

Very helpful. Thanks for that.

I'm with GG on this one. We have been pretty unfortunate. And we can rehash the debates at the very beginning of the season, when Herrera was available and PV wasn't playing him. But that was eons ago. As soon as he got steady minutes he didn't leave the lineup by choice of PV. Truth is our preferred midfield doesn't feature Pirlo or TMac, and features Ring and Herrera together. But with the U20 WC, WCQ and injuries, we haven't been able to feature it much. PV is aware of those stats. Other decisions, such as leaving JLew in the bench or out of the 18, not playing Sands enough, etc. are head scratchers. But PV does rate Herrera (and Ring) very highly. We haven't had Herrera available. And yes, without him we're mediocre. Why hasn't PV made a try with Sands at the 6 and Ring at the 8 as the closest like for like replacements with Herrera's long term injury? And instead given us the wonderfully overhit Pirlo longballs, and TMac's defensive invisibility? That IS the real problem.

 

[mgarbowski]

So, the takeaway from this is that Vieira should have started Herrera in the last game?

I thought the clear takeaway is that for any given game, go ABP -- Anyone But Pirlo, including Tommy Mac. Given that Herrera was unavailable I wouldn't have gone your way, but if it works for you, I won't argue.

Very helpful. Thanks for that.

You're welcome!

 

[SoupInNYC]

How is our club always so tone deaf?

It’s like they intentionally troll their own fans.

I read things like the leaked emails, and I expect a club that has a considered approach to fans and how they will receive certain things.

All I’ll say is that the influence of those involved in the highest level strategy discussions must stop somewhere in the middle of the Atlantic because best I can tell, nothing but assholes handling fan related decisions and interactions here in NYC.

They do this because there's a large portion of the fan base, outside of this forum, that just isn't as plugged in to the bigger picture regarding the playoff scenario. And they are also looking to generally draw more interest to the club in a moment where both the local american football teams are blowing.

I am obviously aware that the Atlanta result yesterday was bad for us, but I have no issue with these tweets as we are not the intended audience for them.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

They do this because there's a large portion of the fan base, outside of this forum, that just isn't as plugged in to the bigger picture regarding the playoff scenario. And they are also looking to generally draw more interest to the club in a moment where both the local american football teams are blowing.

I am obviously aware that the Atlanta result yesterday was bad for us, but I have no issue with these tweets as we are not the intended audience for them.

Fuck off with your making sense and logic.

 

[Gotham Gator]

I thought the clear takeaway is that for any given game, go ABP -- Anyone But Pirlo, including Tommy Mac. Given that Herrera was unavailable I wouldn't have gone your way, but if it works for you, I won't argue.

You're welcome!

You know I respect your posts here, so the snark was really directed at everyone who seems to think Patrick is playing TMac and Pirlo out of choice rather than necessity. Almost always it is the later.

Plus, your stats in this case merely amount to confirming that we are better when playing our starters instead of our backups. Nice confirmation, but hardly surprising. If you want to make the case that we'd be better with different backups as primary options, that would be good to see, but I suspect there will be a lack of data.

 

[Ulrich]

You know I respect your posts here, so the snark was really directed at everyone who seems to think Patrick is playing TMac and Pirlo out of choice rather than necessity. Almost always it is the later.

Plus, your stats in this case merely amount to confirming that we are better when playing our starters instead of our backups. Nice confirmation, but hardly surprising. If you want to make the case that we'd be better with different backups as primary options, that would be good to see, but I suspect there will be a lack of data.

PV makes the lineup and he CHOSE to play Pirlo and TMac together when there were other lineup options. Based on our bench, here's an easy one that keeps the useless two on the bench:

Wallace Villa Harrison
Maxi Sands Ring
Sweat Callens Brillant Struna
Johnson

There was no reason to play Pirlo and TMac except out of stubbornness - PV is his own worst enemy because he won't admit his past mistakes and chart a new course.

 

[mgarbowski]

They do this because there's a large portion of the fan base, outside of this forum, that just isn't as plugged in to the bigger picture regarding the playoff scenario. And they are also looking to generally draw more interest to the club in a moment where both the local american football teams are blowing.

I am obviously aware that the Atlanta result yesterday was bad for us, but I have no issue with these tweets as we are not the intended audience for them.

As the OP of the tweets, this is in line with my take. You just can't expect the club not to tweet about clinching, even though it meant indirectly celebrating an Atlanta win which was a terrible result. I even give the social media team credit for hiding behind Villa here instead of producing their own graphic and celebratory tweet.
.

You know I respect your posts here, so the snark was really directed at everyone who seems to think Patrick is playing TMac and Pirlo out of choice rather than necessity. Almost always it is the later.

Plus, your stats in this case merely amount to confirming that we are better when playing our starters instead of our backups. Nice confirmation, but hardly surprising. If you want to make the case that we'd be better with different backups as primary options, that would be good to see, but I suspect there will be a lack of data.

I know. And I was just answering intentional obtuseness with more of the same for kicks and giggles.
Another thing it highlights is just how little we have played Herrera this year. Just 10 games in excess of 50 minutes (note this excludes the Chicago game with the 2 crazy quick yellows). It took a while for PV to trust him, and since then he's missed a lot due to Venezuale NT and injury.

 

[mgarbowski]

As the OP of the tweets, this is in line with my take. You just can't expect the club not to tweet about clinching, even though it meant indirectly celebrating an Atlanta win which was a terrible result. I even give the social media team credit for hiding behind Villa here instead of producing their own graphic and celebratory tweet.
.

I know. And I was just answering intentional obtuseness with more of the same for kicks and giggles.
Another thing it highlights is just how little we have played Herrera this year. Just 10 games in excess of 30 minutes (note this excludes the Chicago game with the 2 crazy quick yellows). It took a while for PV to trust him, and since then he's missed a lot due to Venezuale NT and injury.

Didn't mean to make this one post, but fine. Also the team made its own tweet now, so never mind on one of the points I made. Also still not a big deal, even though it bugs me.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Sell your Atlanta United stock: "Tata's been great at a lot of things in Year 1 of this grand MLS experiment in Atlanta. Managing short-term ideals against long-term possibilities has not been one of them, and there's suddenly a real chance that putting the pedal all the way to the floor now is going to needlessly cost his team at least one essential player when it matters most."​

https://twitter.com/x/status/912082688428953600

http://americansoccernow.com/articles/asn-morning-read-getting-ready-for-the-world-cup

 

[LionNYC]

PlayoffStatus.com has Atlanta at 48% for the 2nd seed, NYCFC at 41%. We've really dropped the ball late only getting 5 out of 12 points in our past four games, three games at home and one at a poor Colorado team. We've shot ourselves in the foot and we're on the outside looking in for the 2nd seed.

Atlanta controls their own destiny since they have a huge goal differential compared to us. They play vs. Philadelphia on Wednesday, we play at Montreal. We can no longer just win out and get the 2nd seed. We need Atlanta to falter. They haven't had much squad rotation and their depth is a question mark so they will hopefully drop points.

The last two weeks of the season may be nail biting. After the international break NYCFC plays at New England and Atlanta plays at the Red Bulls. We will be rooting for the Red Bulls that day. Both games kickoff at 5 PM on October 15.

Then Decision Day, Atlanta vs. Toronto and NYCFC vs. Columbus at 4 PM on October 22.

In other news, there are currently 22 cases for us to clinch the 3rd seed after this weekend. If we beat Montreal and Chicago, we clinch at minimum the third seed.

If we can magically win both our games this week and Atlanta lose on the road to New England on Saturday, we'd to an 84% probability of being the 2nd seed.

MASSIVE IMPLICATIONS THIS WEEK.

 

[SoupInNYC]

PlayoffStatus.com has Atlanta at 48% for the 2nd seed, NYCFC at 41%. We've really dropped the ball late only getting 5 out of 12 points in our past four games, three games at home and one at a poor Colorado team. We've shot ourselves in the shoot and we're on the outside looking in for the 2nd seed.

Atlanta controls their own destiny since they have a huge goal differential compared to us. They play vs. Philadelphia on Wednesday, we play at Montreal. We can no longer just win out and get the 2nd seed. We need Atlanta to falter. They haven't had much squad rotation and their depth is a question mark so they will hopefully drop points.

The last two weeks of the season may be nail biting. After the international break NYCFC plays at New England and Atlanta plays at the Red Bulls. We will be rooting for the Red Bulls that day. Both games kickoff at 5 PM on October 15.

Then Decision Day, Atlanta vs. Toronto and NYCFC vs. Columbus at 4 PM on October 22.

In other news, there are currently 22 cases for us to clinch the 3rd seed after this weekend. If we beat Montreal and Chicago, we clinch at minimum the third seed.

If we can magically win both our games this week and Atlanta lose on the road to New England on Saturday, we'd to an 84% probability of being the 2nd seed.

MASSIVE IMPLICATIONS THIS WEEK.

And a larger chance to clinch at least the 3rd or 4th spot and a home playoff game. Throwing out who we earn points against:

• Earn 2 points AND Columbus loses to DCU AND NJ earns 2 points or less
• Earn 3 points AND Columbus draws/loses to DCU AND NJ earns 3 points or less
• Earn 4 points AND Columbus draws/loses to DCU AND NJ earns 4 points or less
• Earn 6 points (already noted above in your post as we would clinch at least 3rd)

 

[LionNYC]

He will miss at least 3 of Atlanta United's 5 remaining games. Still, Martinez, Villalba, and Asad are huge attacking threats themselves. Even with Almiron out during the Montreal game yesterday, Atlanta was able to tack on other goal with him on the bench.

Adi (Portland) had the same injury and missed 8 weeks. So Almiron may be out longer.

https://twitter.com/x/status/912369731650322433

 

[Christopher Jee]

PV makes the lineup and he CHOSE to play Pirlo and TMac together when there were other lineup options. Based on our bench, here's an easy one that keeps the useless two on the bench:

Wallace Villa Harrison
Maxi Sands Ring
Sweat Callens Brillant Struna
Johnson

There was no reason to play Pirlo and TMac except out of stubbornness - PV is his own worst enemy because he won't admit his past mistakes and chart a new course.

Man, I think this forum is absurdly high on Sands and absurdly low on Pirlo / Tommy.

Let's just imagine how much more out of proportion this hysteria might look if Sands had bombed the top corner against Colorado, or had played the pass that should have won us penalty when Villa got mauled in the box against Houston.

The kid has played maybe 120 minutes of football at a level of mixed competitiveness and has hit a lot of nice diagonal balls and played some astute sideways and backwards passes. Also he has showed good offensive and defensive positioning.

I don't see how in the short term he offers anything more than the so-called "useless two", although I do see the long term benefits of blooding him with regular minutes. However that hasn't been part of the discussion. The discussion has mostly been about the short term, and applying caustic negativity in assessing players.

 

[Ulrich]

Man, I think this forum is absurdly high on Sands and absurdly low on Pirlo / Tommy.

Let's just imagine how much more out of proportion this hysteria might look if Sands had bombed the top corner against Colorado, or had played the pass that should have won us penalty when Villa got mauled in the box against Houston.

The kid has played maybe 120 minutes of football at a level of mixed competitiveness and has hit a lot of nice diagonal balls and played some astute sideways and backwards passes. Also he has showed good offensive and defensive positioning.

I don't see how in the short term he offers anything more than the so-called "useless two", although I do see the long term benefits of blooding him with regular minutes. However that hasn't been part of the discussion. The discussion has mostly been about the short term, and applying caustic negativity in assessing players.

I will take the limited unknown of Sands any day over the team's record with Pirlo and TMac included. Good or bad, I'd take Sands. MLS is a physical fast league and Sands has shown the ability to not only keep up, but also make the right decisions under pressure. He's not as physical as Hererra, but he brings a lot of the same traits that Pirlo and TMac don't have.

 

[Christopher Jee]

I will take the limited unknown of Sands any day over the team's record with Pirlo and TMac included. Good or bad, I'd take Sands. MLS is a physical fast league and Sands has shown the ability to not only keep up, but also make the right decisions under pressure. He's not as physical as Hererra, but he brings a lot of the same traits that Pirlo and TMac don't have.

When has he done that? In the minutes he got against a tired Colorado?

 

[LionNYC]

I don't think Sands is going to be on the field for NYCFC the rest of the year. The U17 World Cup ends on October 28 right before the conference semifinals. Say the US go all the way, that would mean Sands would play a lot of minutes and would need rest due to those minutes and travel. He would be shut down until the November international break. That being said, hopefully by that time all our midfielders and defensive players are back: Herrera, Lopez, Chanot, etc.

Even if he didn't play this year and would be considered a rookie for next year, he wouldn't likely win rookie of the year since his minutes on this squad with this roster when fully healthy would be limited.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Man, I think this forum is absurdly high on Sands and absurdly low on Pirlo / Tommy.

Let's just imagine how much more out of proportion this hysteria might look if Sands had bombed the top corner against Colorado, or had played the pass that should have won us penalty when Villa got mauled in the box against Houston.

I do think in general we are a bit high, and possibly absurdly, on Sands, and maybe a bit low on Pirlo/Tommy, but not absurdly.

I do agree with you that if Sands had bombed the top corner against Colorado, then the whole board would have exploded, but that would be moreso because that would be coming from a player that we wouldn't be expecting that from, isn't "supposed" to be in his skill set, and is, if anything, an addition to what he brings. On the flip side, in regards to Tommy, its one of the few things he can do outside of getting into dangerous poaching positions.

That said, I'm not necessarily in the start Sands camp while missing one of our midfielders. And think that Pirlo is probably the guy that should be in there. I could see an argument for TMac, but just don't agree with it.

What I absolutely disagree with, is playing BOTH Pirlo and TMac in the midfield, while we move our CAM to winger, a place where we currently have decent depth. There's no reason to play our CAM out of position (resulting in a less physical wing) to opt for a slower midfield.

 

[Ulrich]

I don't think Sands is going to be on the field for NYCFC the rest of the year. The U17 World Cup ends on October 28 right before the conference semifinals. Say the US go all the way, that would mean Sands would play a lot of minutes and would need rest due to those minutes and travel. He would be shut down until the November international break. That being said, hopefully by that time all our midfielders and defensive players are back: Herrera, Lopez, Chanot, etc.

Even if he didn't play this year and would be considered a rookie for next year, he wouldn't likely win rookie of the year since his minutes on this squad with this roster when fully healthy would be limited.

He'd get Mikey's injury-minutes, or the manager could actively rotate him in as a trusted midfielder.