2017 Projecting By The Numbers and Chasing A Narrative

[Ulrich]

When has he done that? In the minutes he got against a tired Colorado?

I don't know about how you saw it, but there was high praise for Sands after the Colorado match from more than just this board. And that tired Colorado team had more energy than NYCFC considering they controlled possession for the last 20 min, so it was a solid display against, at worst, an even-strength team.

 

[Christopher Jee]

I do think in general we are a bit high, and possibly absurdly, on Sands, and maybe a bit low on Pirlo/Tommy, but not absurdly.

I do agree with you that if Sands had bombed the top corner against Colorado, then the whole board would have exploded, but that would be moreso because that would be coming from a player that we wouldn't be expecting that from, isn't "supposed" to be in his skill set, and is, if anything, an addition to what he brings. On the flip side, in regards to Tommy, its one of the few things he can do outside of getting into dangerous poaching positions.

That said, I'm not necessarily in the start Sands camp while missing one of our midfielders. And think that Pirlo is probably the guy that should be in there. I could see an argument for TMac, but just don't agree with it.

What I absolutely disagree with, is playing BOTH Pirlo and TMac in the midfield, while we move our CAM to winger, a place where we currently have decent depth. There's no reason to play our CAM out of position (resulting in a less physical wing) to opt for a slower midfield.

We weren't playing Maxi as a winger.

 

[Christopher Jee]

I don't know about how you saw it, but there was high praise for Sands after the Colorado match from more than just this board. And that tired Colorado team had more energy than NYCFC considering they controlled possession for the last 20 min, so it was a solid display against, at worst, an even-strength team.

I saw it and felt reassured that he wasn't gonna be a disaster if we had to throw him in.

 

[SoupInNYC]

We weren't playing Maxi as a winger.

We weren't?

I'll admit, I wasn't able to watch the game due to a family function, but the released lineup, and all the commentary in the Houston thread, indicated he was on the wing.

 

[Christopher Jee]

We weren't?

I'll admit, I wasn't able to watch the game due to a family function, but the released lineup, and all the commentary in the Houston thread, indicated he was on the wing.

I only got to watch the first half of the replay so far, but on D he is a second forward in a 4-4-2 with Tommy as a LW. In attack, he is one of the 2 in a 3-4-2-1.

 

[Gotham Gator]

So, the two big contests down the stretch are Atlanta chasing us for the 2nd spot and Montreal chasing New Jersey for the 6th and final spot. Here are the games remaining in each race, ranked by difficulty.

NYC is 3 points up on Atlanta, but Atlanta has a game in hand. Atlanta has a huge, 15 goal lead in goal differential.




New Jersey is 3 points up on Montreal, and NJ also has a game in hand. NJ has a solid, 6 goal lead in goal differential.

 

[Ulrich]

So, the two big contests down the stretch are Atlanta chasing us for the 2nd spot and Montreal chasing New Jersey for the 6th and final spot. Here are the games remaining in each race, ranked by difficulty.

NYC is 3 points up on Atlanta, but Atlanta has a game in hand. Atlanta has a huge, 15 goal lead in goal differential.

View attachment 7526


New Jersey is 3 points up on Montreal, and NJ also has a game in hand. NJ has a solid, 6 goal lead in goal differential.

View attachment 7527

I would rank the Toronto match above the NJ for Atlanta. Sure NJ is fighting for their own lives, but Toronto will not want to go into the playoffs in a funk with a loss as their last game (on top of their current "crappy" form). That said, I think the two most critical Atlanta matches are also the last two and the hardest two when Atlanta's roster will be at the zenith of burned out/injured.

I'm not discounting our matches considering our form and injuries, but we conceivably have a light at the end of the tunnel and Atlanta is in the final few laps of their race wondering if they have enough fuel left in the tank without making a pit stop.

 

[mgarbowski]

I would rank the Toronto match above the NJ for Atlanta. Sure NJ is fighting for their own lives, but Toronto will not want to go into the playoffs in a funk with a loss as their last game (on top of their current "crappy" form).

You might be right, but coaches have all sorts of theories on those types of situations. Much might depend on whether Toronto wins its next 2 games. If they do, Vanney might consider the team to be in fine shape and approach the last game as an opportunity to give both playing time and rest to the right people. OTOH, if they do win the next 2 they will have an opportunity to break 70 points with a win. I still think Vanney would prioritize playoff prep over a win in that case but you never know. Plus Toronto's subs have really shined this year so they are capable of a win even if Vanney rests some key guys.

 

[LionNYC]

So, the two big contests down the stretch are Atlanta chasing us for the 2nd spot and Montreal chasing New Jersey for the 6th and final spot. Here are the games remaining in each race, ranked by difficulty.

NYC is 3 points up on Atlanta, but Atlanta has a game in hand. Atlanta has a huge, 15 goal lead in goal differential.

View attachment 7526


New Jersey is 3 points up on Montreal, and NJ also has a game in hand. NJ has a solid, 6 goal lead in goal differential.

View attachment 7527

The way you ordered the games for NYCFC and Atlanta makes no sense at all. It's not even in chronological order top to bottom.

 

[Ulrich]

You might be right, but coaches have all sorts of theories on those types of situations. Much might depend on whether Toronto wins its next 2 games. If they do, Vanney might consider the team to be in fine shape and approach the last game as an opportunity to give both playing time and rest to the right people. OTOH, if they do win the next 2 they will have an opportunity to get break 70 points with a win. I still think Vanney would prioritize playoff prep over a win in that case but you never know. Plus Toronto's subs have really shined this year so they are capable of a win even if Vanney rests some key guys.

All true, but Vanney also has a special sort of competitive streak (not as bad as Vermes or Marsch) and he doesn't ever like to lose so that season point total will have meaning to him, and Atlanta has the ability to embarrass any team, even toronto, so I'd bank on him taking it seriously.

 

[mgarbowski]

The way you ordered the games for NYCFC and Atlanta makes no sense at all. It's not even in chronological order top to bottom.

I believe he noted they are ranked in his estimation of difficulty. Some of those choices are quirky, but I'm pretty sure that is how you have to read it.

 

[LionNYC]

I believe he noted they are ranked in his estimation of difficulty. Some of those choices are quirky, but I'm pretty sure that is how you have to read it.

Ranked by difficulty, true. Still, odd to me.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Ranking by difficulty is somewhat objective. To the extent the rankings look strange, I think that has to do with estimating the relative difficulty of home and away matches. To me, playing at Red Bull arena is tougher than playing Toronto in Mercedez-Benz, but I understand if people would flip them.

 

[The Toe]

NER in Gillette have been really pretty good. Getting out of there with a point -- for any team -- is a success. They just can't win on the road.

 

[canchon]

NYCFC is getting the 3 seed, folks. Blame two things:

1. NYCFC throwing away a bunch of points at the beginning of the season by conceding late and/or playing down to teams (think late goals against NER, VAN, awful result against RSL, etc) Add COL to that list.

2. Injuries and having to play with a short team for the last month or so that killed their momentum - even just one more win in the last five would have been the difference.

If you want to add a third, add some crappy ref calls which is bad luck.

They can make a run from the 3 seed (Toronto went to MLS Cup from this position last year) and don't have a 100 year old midfield anymore - when healthy so the rest isn't as badly needed.

That said, you may be looking at a knockout game against RBNJ and then playing Atlanta. Gulp.

 

[dannd23]

I am an eternal optimist, but this is my spin on things:

Philly is fighting for their playoff lives. I think they upset Almiron-less Atlanta tonight or at least draw.

ATL go to New England and RBNJ, both also fighting for their playoff lives. They will drop some points.

We play well in Montreal. Chicago is starting to heat up, but we match well with them. At New England will go one of two ways. It will either be a very tricky fixture, or they will have been eliminated from the playoffs and have no motivation. We also likely see a lot of Matarrita tonight which will (hopefully) add a new dynamic to our team that has been missing most of the year (watch the 1st match vs DC United to see what I mean). Herrera is no longer on the injury report. Ring is healthy. Chanot is getting healthy. I like where we are at as a team. Come playoff time, whether 3 seed or 2 seed, we should be at full strength

 

[FredMertz]

I think post-for-post, this is the best thread on the site.

 

[dannd23]

I think post-for-post, this is the best thread on the site.

Agreed. Good factual analysis and well supported opinions all around. It's essentially the anti-players wanted thread.

 

[canchon]

I am an eternal optimist, but this is my spin on things:

Philly is fighting for their playoff lives. I think they upset Almiron-less Atlanta tonight or at least draw.

I could see Philly take a play out of the DCU handbook and pack it in, Blake plays out of his mind, Sapong poaches one on the counter. The way to beat Atlanta is not to turn the ball over stupidly in your own half and get a draw or even a win tonight. ATL is not Barcelona, they won't win them all.

PHL wins and they are 3 points out of a playoff spot. It's basically now or never for them.

 

[The Toe]

Chicago will be without Schweiny tonight and probably Saturday, FWIW.