2017 Projecting By The Numbers and Chasing A Narrative

[LionNYC]

Using my staff powers again, I removed all talk of non-2017 season things. This thread is about 2017, our potential seeding, and the push for the playoffs. Let's keep this post for post the best thread on the site. Solid commentary, analysis, charts, tables, and posts.

 

[Hivemind]

Hivemind can't stop laughing

Hivemind means it can't stop laughing about 2017 season things

 

[mgarbowski]

Dropping in this quick update before the games tonight change everything. On this first chart I noticed that our PG is still ahead of Atlanta's even though they control their destiny. This isn't a secret. The PPG is right on the MLS Standings page. But I think we lost sight of it with all the bad news. Another reminder, Atlanta only controls its own destiny if they win out, which would be 5 in a row on top of the 2-game streak they are riding. I expect they will drop points. The issue is will NYCFC drop few enough to stay ahead.
NOTE: Chart fixed thanks to the helpful comment from SoupInNYC



Another reminder is NYC also still has the second best PPG in the league, even with its current skid. If they can get healthy and right, this is a very good team when it plays well.
Next, here are the outcomes for all but (I think) 1 scenario:


Before putting up the regular graphs, here are some Home/Away splits that I think bring some of the recent woes into starker view:


The last of those, I think, shows how the rolling PPG average has taken a hit both home and away for the last few games, and it is easier to see without the prior years all intertwined.

Finally, here are the standard charts:


The Goal Differential is what stands out to me here. As I think I mentioned in a prior post, NYC hit +13 GD on June 29 and is at +13 right now twelve games later. Exclude the two Toronto games in those dozen, and NYC is +6 in 10 games, but the TFC games count. The team has not been totally flat for the last 2.5 months -- there was a period in which it won 4 of 5 -- but the teams PPG in the last 12 games is only 1.58 compared to 1.83 over the first 18.

This can be a successful season if the team continues to stumble in the next 4 games but does well in the playoffs, but everyone will feel better if the turnaround starts tonight.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Dropping in this quick update before the games tonight change everything. On this first chart I noticed that our PG is still ahead of Atlanta's even though they control their destiny. This isn't a secret. The PPG is right on the MLS Standings page. But I think we lost sight of it with all the bad news. Another reminder, Atlanta only controls its own destiny if they win out, which would be 5 in a row on top of the 2-game streak they are riding. I expect they will drop points. The issue is will NYCFC drop few enough to stay ahead.
View attachment 7538

Another reminder is NYC also still has the second best PPG in the league, even with its current skid. If they can get healthy and right, this is a very good team when it plays well.
Next, here are the outcomes for all but (I think) 1 scenario:
View attachment 7539

Before putting up the regular graphs, here are some Home/Away splits that I think bring some of the recent woes into starker view:
View attachment 7540

The last of those, I think, shows how the rolling PPG average has taken a hit both home and away for the last few games, and it is easier to see without the prior years all intertwined.

Finally, here are the standard charts:
View attachment 7541

The Goal Differential is what stands out to me here. As I think I mentioned in a prior post, NYC hit +13 GD on June 29 and is at +13 right now twelve games later. Exclude the two Toronto games in those dozen, and NYC is +6 in 10 games, but the TFC games count. The team has not been totally flat for the last 2.5 months -- there was a period in which it won 4 of 5 -- but the teams PPG in the last 12 games is only 1.58 compared to 1.83 over the first 18.

This can be a successful season if the team continues to stumble in the next 4 games but does well in the playoffs, but everyone will feel better if the turnaround starts tonight.

As always, this is great, but check your scenarios table. Your last 4 only include 3 games, whereas everything about that has 4.

 

[mgarbowski]

As always, this is great, but check your scenarios table. Your last 4 only include 3 games, whereas everything about that has 4.

Ack!

 

[LionNYC]

I honestly think this Saturday decides the 2nd seed.

Atlanta AT New England
NYCFC AT Chicago

If we win and Atlanta loses, PlayoffStatus.com puts us at 80% to get the 2nd seed. We lose and Atlanta wins and it drops to 18% but still 62% to get 3rd.

 

[mgarbowski]

I honestly think this Saturday decides the 2nd seed.

Atlanta AT New England
NYCFC AT Chicago

If we win and Atlanta loses, PlayoffStatus.com puts us at 80% to get the 2nd seed. We lose and Atlanta wins and it drops to 18% but still 62% to get 3rd.

And if I read that correctly, to be clear, I think that means 80% to finish at least 3rd (18+62).

 

[LionNYC]

And if I read that correctly, to be clear, I think that means 80% to finish at least 3rd (18+62).

 

[FredMertz]

Atlanta only controls its own destiny if they win out

This is, by and large, the definition of controlling your own destiny.

 

[The Toe]

Revs are tough at home, thank goodness.

 

[dannd23]

Dream with me:

NYCFC wins out
Toronto loses to RBNJ and Montreal, draws with Atlanta.

NYCFC wins the Supporter's Shield.

 

[LionNYC]

Dream with me:

NYCFC wins out
Toronto loses to RBNJ and Montreal, draws with Atlanta.

NYCFC wins the Supporter's Shield.

You know, I haven't even thought about that. It's only 7 points and that's the only scenario where we would claim the Supporters' Shield, so it's still doable. But Toronto losing at home to RB AND Montreal that would be damn hard.

 

[mgarbowski]

This is, by and large, the definition of controlling your own destiny.

Yeah, I rushed and poorly worded that. I was trying to convey that I think some people are acting as if Atlanta already passed NYCFC, but they haven't, either on points or PPG. The only definite advantage they currently have is that if they win out they will pass us, but that requires a 7 game win streak (of which now 4 remain). At some level this is pretty obvious, as well, yet I still thought it worth mentioning, so I got caught trying to write around that.

 

[Hivemind]

Hivemind thinks ATL will win out between now and when Tata is lifting the MLS Cup. It's not what HM wants. It's what HM thinks

 

[LionNYC]

In our past six matches dating back to August 25 in New Jersey, the combined score of NYCFC matches has always been 2 or less. 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss. 1-1 (RB), 1-0 (SKC), 0-1 (POR), 1-1 (COL), 1-1 (HOU), 1-0 (MTL). So, while our defensive is doing well to limit goals, our attack is not doing its part. You don't win playoff series scoring 1 goal a game...

 

[canchon]

You would think at some point the team would start finishing...I think at some point NYCFC was way ahead of the league in terms of xGD but couldn't finish.

The eye test this year has been "dominate games, create chances, blow chances, give up goals on bad mistakes." At some point you would think that their finishing has to catch up - you can't outperform or underperform xG forever.

Would be nice to start that regression to the mean now.

 

[canchon]

In our past six matches dating back to August 25 in New Jersey, the combined score of NYCFC matches has always been 2 or less. 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss. 1-1 (RB), 1-0 (SKC), 0-1 (POR), 1-1 (COL), 1-1 (HOU), 1-0 (MTL). So, while our defensive is doing well to limit goals, our attack is not doing its part. You don't win playoff series scoring 1 goal a game...

Unless you are Sporting KC or 2004 Greece. NYCFC is definitely not that.

 

[Ulrich]

You would think at some point the team would start finishing...I think at some point NYCFC was way ahead of the league in terms of xGD but couldn't finish.

The eye test this year has been "dominate games, create chances, blow chances, give up goals on bad mistakes." At some point you would think that their finishing has to catch up - you can't outperform or underperform xG forever.

Would be nice to start that regression to the mean now.

Vieira really needs to reinforce the notion that the Goalkeeper is *not* the target when shooting.... look for the negative space between the posts.

It's like when asked what do you see in this picture and the first thing mentioned is the elephant, because seeing the positive space comes most naturally (like the GK), but its the horse that needs to pop out to the shooter first. Just don't always try to nutmeg the keeper if the horse is between the elephant's legs.

 

[mgarbowski]

You would think at some point the team would start finishing...I think at some point NYCFC was way ahead of the league in terms of xGD but couldn't finish.

The eye test this year has been "dominate games, create chances, blow chances, give up goals on bad mistakes." At some point you would think that their finishing has to catch up - you can't outperform or underperform xG forever.

Would be nice to start that regression to the mean now.

1. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Ie, regression to the mean takes it's own damn time, thank you.
2. We've discussed this here at varying times, and it's just not clear how well xG works.
3. That includes disputes over whether there is any such thing as a good finisher, or if the best goal scorers are actually adept at being in the right place at the right time as opposed to clinical finishing.
4. xG seems especially weak at measuring the quality of goal chances in ways that reflect the defense. If I shoot from a certain spot with 3 defenders in the box who are ready and fully settled, and you shoot from the same spot with 2 frantic defenders on the move, it is not clear that xG accounts for that difference very well. I think ATL exceeds its xG in part at least because many of its shots come quickly off a high press turnover. NYC shots come either after building from the back or off defensive pressure all over the field and less likely to be close to the opposing goal. As someone mentioned this morning we do have a tendency to run right at goal in those instances but usually have further to go and the defense has more chance to catch up and get set compared to a high press. And our slow buildups routinely face an 18-yard box packed with defenders.

 

[FredMertz]

Vieira really needs to reinforce the notion that the Goalkeeper is *not* the target when shooting.... look for the negative space between the posts.

It's like when asked what do you see in this picture and the first thing mentioned is the elephant, because seeing the positive space comes most naturally (like the GK), but its the horse that needs to pop out to the shooter first. Just don't always try to nutmeg the keeper if the horse is between the elephant's legs.

Science!

http://www.chi.ac.uk/research/sport...lkeepers-strip-can-affect-striker-performance