2017 Projecting By The Numbers and Chasing A Narrative
- Thread starter mgarbowski
- Start date
Also winning against Chicago more or less guarantees at minimum a 3rd place finish, right?
Yes, a win vs. Chicago and we clinch at minimum the 3rd seed. Which basically means ATL vs. NYCFC in the conference semifinals should everything fall into place.
If we have to play Atl, then I'd rather have the first game at home where we can hopefully take a lead down to Georgia and not have to mount a comeback.
But do you want to play the Red Bulls (or Columbus) the Wednesday before a Saturday or Sunday match in Atlanta?
No thank you.
However it plays out, My preference is to have the bye, but if we must play Atlanta, I'd rather play them at home first.
If they are the 3 seed they will play the knockout game at home and then play the first game of the next round also at home. Higher seed gets the second home game.
Which is why the 3 seed is not that bad, get the lower of the bye teams and don't have to travel for that first game. Toronto played it to perfection last year by winning knockout and then building a multi goal lead at home before having to travel. The bye team doesn't even know where they have to travel until 3 days beforehand as the winner of the knockout game is known.
I really want them to change the rules to either a single game hosted by the higher seed, or the higher seed gets to choose which match they host in the series.
Very nice idea. I thought NYCFC was at a complete disadvantage last year.
Scenarios
NYCFC has clinched a playoff spot, but has not yet guaranteed finishing higher than Sixth Place.
Fifth Place
The magic number for the Red Bulls is 1. Any point won by NYC or dropped by RB guarantees at least 5th place.
Fourth Place
The magic number for the Columbus is 2. Any 2 points won/lost guarantees 4th place & a knockout round home game.
Third Place
The magic number for Chicago is 6. A NYC win tonight clinches. If Chicago wins they are 1 point back with 2 to play and the magic number remains 6. Chicago finishes Home against Philadelphia and Away at Houston. That is a very likely 3 points won and 3 dropped for Chicago, and if that happens NYC could win with nothing more than a win at home against Columbus, but it goes down to the last game.
Second Place
The magic number for Atlanta is 10. NYC can only win 9. Atlanta's magic number against NYC is 13 and they can only win 12, but they have such an enormous tiebreaker advantage, that their "might-as-well-be" magic number is 12.
NYC Schedule At Chicago, At New England, Home Columbus
ATL Schedule At New England, Home Minnesota, At Red Bulls, Home Toronto
I'm going to treat the NYC home game against Columbus and ATL against Minnesota as gimmes. Of course both could drop points in their gimme game, but if they do they create a huge opening for the other that is so obvious it is not worth analyzing in any depth.
My other takeaway is that a 3-point lead this late, even against a team with a game in hand, is quite valuable. The simple summary is that Atlanta has to match whatever NYC does game for game, plus win the one extra game it plays. And that's probably harder than what NYC has to do.
NYCFC has clinched a playoff spot, but has not yet guaranteed finishing higher than Sixth Place.
Fifth Place
The magic number for the Red Bulls is 1. Any point won by NYC or dropped by RB guarantees at least 5th place.
Fourth Place
The magic number for the Columbus is 2. Any 2 points won/lost guarantees 4th place & a knockout round home game.
Third Place
The magic number for Chicago is 6. A NYC win tonight clinches. If Chicago wins they are 1 point back with 2 to play and the magic number remains 6. Chicago finishes Home against Philadelphia and Away at Houston. That is a very likely 3 points won and 3 dropped for Chicago, and if that happens NYC could win with nothing more than a win at home against Columbus, but it goes down to the last game.
Second Place
The magic number for Atlanta is 10. NYC can only win 9. Atlanta's magic number against NYC is 13 and they can only win 12, but they have such an enormous tiebreaker advantage, that their "might-as-well-be" magic number is 12.
NYC Schedule At Chicago, At New England, Home Columbus
ATL Schedule At New England, Home Minnesota, At Red Bulls, Home Toronto
I'm going to treat the NYC home game against Columbus and ATL against Minnesota as gimmes. Of course both could drop points in their gimme game, but if they do they create a huge opening for the other that is so obvious it is not worth analyzing in any depth.
- Let's start with a worst case scenario that NYC only gets 3 more points beating Columbus at home. After the ATL gimme against Minnesota, they need 1 more win either at NE, in Harrison NJ, or home against TFC. Or a draw in all 3. That's very doable but arguably all of those are tougher than Atlanta's last 6 at home where they got 16 of 18 points. Even the Revs in Gillette are tough. It's not super tough for Atlanta but NYC has a shot even if it loses the next 2 Away, at least as of now. If Atlanta wins tonight in New England that alters.
- NYC gets 4 points. One draw against CHI or NER plus the home win against Columbus. Atlanta needs 7 points. Beat Minnesota, plus a win and a draw in New England, in Harrison, or home against Toronto. A bit tougher.
- NYC gets 5 points. Draws away at both CHI and NER and beat Columbus on decision day. Now Atlanta needs 8 points, which means either 3 wins, or results in every one of its remaining games (2 wins and 2 draws).
- NYC gets 6 points: 1 Away win and 1 Home win. Atlanta needs to win 3 of its remaining 4 games to get the 9 points.
- NYC gets 7 points. 2 Wins (H/A) and 1 Away draw. Atlanta needs 10 points. 3 Wins and 1 Draw.
- If NYC gets 9 points, ATL also has to win out the last 4.
My other takeaway is that a 3-point lead this late, even against a team with a game in hand, is quite valuable. The simple summary is that Atlanta has to match whatever NYC does game for game, plus win the one extra game it plays. And that's probably harder than what NYC has to do.
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In the postgame press conference after the 1-1 draw in Chicago, Vieira even mentioned Columbus as a team that can achieve the 2nd place seed and the bye in the playoffs. He is technically correct, which the best kind of correct, as they are only 6 points off us in second place. That being said, I'm going to ignore them and Chicago in this analysis as we've done recently...
FiveThirtyEight puts a first round bye for NYCFC at 54% and Atlanta at 43% updated after the conclusion of our match.
Remaining Schedules
NYCFC
We will be without Maxi Moralez for New England. We were also without him versus LA and won 2-0. That being said LA only won 1 game at home at that time. New England has won 11 at home. This will be a true test and a must win. Aside from that, I like our chances at home to end the season again at home versus Columbus.
Atlanta
Atlanta plays during the international break, as does their opponent Minnesota, so we'll see who will be available but I don't expect Minnesota to pull of a miracle in Atlanta. MLS returns from the international break and Atlanta goes to New Jersey to face the Red Bulls who are the only eastern conference team above the red line who has not qualified. Red Bulls will be playing to clinch. (EDIT: They play Vancouver during the international break as well, so they can clinch then. But they will be playing for a higher seed). They then return to Toronto who essentially have nothing to do. They could play their B team the rest of the season as they have clinched the Supporters' Shield and 1st seed in the East. It will be up to Greg Vanney to see how it plays this one with their first playoff match just a week afterwards.
Waiting for other websites to update their projections...
FiveThirtyEight puts a first round bye for NYCFC at 54% and Atlanta at 43% updated after the conclusion of our match.
Remaining Schedules
NYCFC
We will be without Maxi Moralez for New England. We were also without him versus LA and won 2-0. That being said LA only won 1 game at home at that time. New England has won 11 at home. This will be a true test and a must win. Aside from that, I like our chances at home to end the season again at home versus Columbus.
Atlanta
Atlanta plays during the international break, as does their opponent Minnesota, so we'll see who will be available but I don't expect Minnesota to pull of a miracle in Atlanta. MLS returns from the international break and Atlanta goes to New Jersey to face the Red Bulls who are the only eastern conference team above the red line who has not qualified. Red Bulls will be playing to clinch. (EDIT: They play Vancouver during the international break as well, so they can clinch then. But they will be playing for a higher seed). They then return to Toronto who essentially have nothing to do. They could play their B team the rest of the season as they have clinched the Supporters' Shield and 1st seed in the East. It will be up to Greg Vanney to see how it plays this one with their first playoff match just a week afterwards.
Waiting for other websites to update their projections...
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"Some things are so unexpected that no one is prepared for them. "
NYC scored 1.84 Goals per Game through 25 games on August 19, and has 0.86 Goals per Game in the 7 games since then.
NYCFC's PPG was 1.84 through 25 games, it is 1.43 in the last 7, and down to 1.75 overall.
NYC had 4 draws in its first 25 games and 4 in the last 7.
NYC scored at least 2 goals in 16 of its first 25 games and hasn't done so once in the last 7.
"I have seen the future and it is very much like the present, only longer."
Here are some more trends about other teams that might affect NYC:
Atlanta's last loss was August 23 and that streak covers 8 games.
New England is in 8th Place but until last night it won every home game it played going back to July 5. It was tied for the 4th best Home record in the entire league. Toronto has lost 5 games all season and 2 of those 5 were in Gillette Stadium. New England outplayed Atlanta in New England last night and Atlanta still got a point.
NYC's next game is in New England, who still is tied for 4th Best Home Record.
Minnesota won 0 of its first 10 Away games, but won 2 of the last 4. Minnesota also is still terrible. They have scored 18 goals in their 14 Away Games. Atlanta last conceded a goal at Home in July, in a different stadium. Atlanta has 6 Clean Sheets in its last 7 games.
Atlanta's next game after Minnesota is in in Harrison, NJ. It is Atlanta's last remaining Away game. The Red Bulls have not won Home or Away since August 12. Their tailspin is far worse than NYCFC's. If they beat Vancouver in the intervening game they have nothing meaningful to play for. If they do not beat Vancouver they will have failed to win for 10 straight games when they face Atlanta.
After Minnesota, Atlanta's streak of games on short rest ends. They will have 11 days off before playing in New Jersey.
"An unsophisticated forecaster uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts - for support rather than for illumination. "
If Minnesota gets any result in Atlanta next week that will be huge. If Minnesota gets a draw, NYC will go into the final 2 games with a major advantage, but would still have to win both of the last 2 games to be guaranteed second regardless of what Atlanta did from that point. If Minnesota manages a win, NYC has some more flexibility.
If Atlanta beats Minnesota as expected, they will be tied with NYC on points and a massive advantage on tiebreakers. Both will have 2 games left.
October 15: Atlanta Away at Red Bull Arena; NYC Away at New England. Playing in New England is the tougher game. Just ask Toronto. But NYC is a better Away team than Atlanta.
October 22: Atlanta hosts Toronto; NYC hosts Columbus. Toronto is making MLS history. They also have the best Away record in the league. Atlanta has the third best home record in the league. The entire league is looking forward to this game. I consider it a toss-up. Toronto will be playing for nothing that matters, except maybe pride and sending a message against a potential playoff opponent. They could rest their best and just try to avoid injury, or go all out.
Back in mid-August, nobody expected NYC's to go 7 games without scoring 2 goals, or that the Red Bulls would not only slump but completely stop winning, or that Minnesota would win 2 of 4 Away games, or that Atlanta would have 6 shutouts in 7 games.
NYC needs a turnaround. Predicting it would be foolish. Being surprised if it happens would be even dumber.
Let's hope.
NYC scored 1.84 Goals per Game through 25 games on August 19, and has 0.86 Goals per Game in the 7 games since then.
NYCFC's PPG was 1.84 through 25 games, it is 1.43 in the last 7, and down to 1.75 overall.
NYC had 4 draws in its first 25 games and 4 in the last 7.
NYC scored at least 2 goals in 16 of its first 25 games and hasn't done so once in the last 7.
"I have seen the future and it is very much like the present, only longer."
Here are some more trends about other teams that might affect NYC:
Atlanta's last loss was August 23 and that streak covers 8 games.
New England is in 8th Place but until last night it won every home game it played going back to July 5. It was tied for the 4th best Home record in the entire league. Toronto has lost 5 games all season and 2 of those 5 were in Gillette Stadium. New England outplayed Atlanta in New England last night and Atlanta still got a point.
NYC's next game is in New England, who still is tied for 4th Best Home Record.
Minnesota won 0 of its first 10 Away games, but won 2 of the last 4. Minnesota also is still terrible. They have scored 18 goals in their 14 Away Games. Atlanta last conceded a goal at Home in July, in a different stadium. Atlanta has 6 Clean Sheets in its last 7 games.
Atlanta's next game after Minnesota is in in Harrison, NJ. It is Atlanta's last remaining Away game. The Red Bulls have not won Home or Away since August 12. Their tailspin is far worse than NYCFC's. If they beat Vancouver in the intervening game they have nothing meaningful to play for. If they do not beat Vancouver they will have failed to win for 10 straight games when they face Atlanta.
After Minnesota, Atlanta's streak of games on short rest ends. They will have 11 days off before playing in New Jersey.
"An unsophisticated forecaster uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts - for support rather than for illumination. "
If Minnesota gets any result in Atlanta next week that will be huge. If Minnesota gets a draw, NYC will go into the final 2 games with a major advantage, but would still have to win both of the last 2 games to be guaranteed second regardless of what Atlanta did from that point. If Minnesota manages a win, NYC has some more flexibility.
If Atlanta beats Minnesota as expected, they will be tied with NYC on points and a massive advantage on tiebreakers. Both will have 2 games left.
October 15: Atlanta Away at Red Bull Arena; NYC Away at New England. Playing in New England is the tougher game. Just ask Toronto. But NYC is a better Away team than Atlanta.
October 22: Atlanta hosts Toronto; NYC hosts Columbus. Toronto is making MLS history. They also have the best Away record in the league. Atlanta has the third best home record in the league. The entire league is looking forward to this game. I consider it a toss-up. Toronto will be playing for nothing that matters, except maybe pride and sending a message against a potential playoff opponent. They could rest their best and just try to avoid injury, or go all out.
- If NYC comes out of October 15 3 points behind Atlanta then NYC cannot catch up given the tiebreakers.
- If NYC comes out of Oct 15 2 points behind Atlanta NYC gets second by beating Columbus and an ATL loss.
- If NYC comes out of Oct 15 1 point behind Atlanta NYC gets second by beating Columbus and an ATL draw or loss.
- If NYC comes out of Oct 15 even with Atlanta NYC gets second with any better result than Atlanta. A win against Columbus means nothing without some result for Toronto.
- If NYC comes out of Oct 15 1 point ahead, NYC gets second with a win, or a draw and Atlanta draw or loss, or a loss and Atlanta loss.
- If NYC comes out of Oct 15 2 or 3 points ahead, NYC gets second with a win, or a draw and Atlanta draw or loss, or a loss and Atlanta loss or draw.
Back in mid-August, nobody expected NYC's to go 7 games without scoring 2 goals, or that the Red Bulls would not only slump but completely stop winning, or that Minnesota would win 2 of 4 Away games, or that Atlanta would have 6 shutouts in 7 games.
NYC needs a turnaround. Predicting it would be foolish. Being surprised if it happens would be even dumber.
Let's hope.
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FWIW, I know have us finishing second and ATL third.
The West on the other hand, is so wacky and will be interesting to watch unfold. Heading into this weekend's games I had Vancouver finishing 4th. With their win at SKC (only home loss of the year) along with Portland drawing and Seattle losing, I know have the Whitecaps finishing atop the West. And that's with only getting 3 points out of their remaining 3 matches.
The West on the other hand, is so wacky and will be interesting to watch unfold. Heading into this weekend's games I had Vancouver finishing 4th. With their win at SKC (only home loss of the year) along with Portland drawing and Seattle losing, I know have the Whitecaps finishing atop the West. And that's with only getting 3 points out of their remaining 3 matches.
Source?
Guzan (USA) and Martinez (VEN) were both called up. Their games are later in the week, but still, are they playing with Atlanta?
I was asking, not saying.
Venezuela plays on Thursday, so hard to imagine he wouldn't need to be with the team on Tuesday night.
Guzan, I'm not sure.
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