Wait, were you "responsible" for RBW?
I think my quick response due to flawless memory and perfect GIF selection cancels out
adam's perfidy.2018 - Running With the Numbers and the Quest for Everything
- Thread starter mgarbowski
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adam's perfidy.
I told Midas before the match at the empanada stand that I wasn’t worried because we were gonna be balling. Little did I realize the term was lost in translation to the team who thought balling meant making the fans cry.Wait, were you "responsible" for RBW?
I think my quick response due to flawless memory and perfect GIF selection cancels out
Bawling vs ballin'. Surely.
Bloody hell dude, the last time you wrote this the team finished the season with 10 points in the last 8 games!
http://nycfcforums.com/index.php?th...-chasing-a-narrative.5509/page-11#post-214457
I didn't want to write this and nobody wants to read it but here we are:
- NYCFC has lost 6 regular season games all time by 3 or more goals. The Red Bulls claim 3 of them.
- 2015 LAG 5-1
- 2016 RB 7-0
- 2016 RB 4-1
- 2017 TFC 4-0
- 2018 POR 3-0
- 2018 RB 4-0
- That NYC has 2 such losses in just 4 playoff games is beyond abysmal.
- All time, NYC also has 6 Wins of 3 or more goals:
- 2016 Colorado 5-1
- 2016 Chicago 4-1
- 2016 Columbus 4-1
- 2017 DC 4-0
- 2017 Orlando 3-0
- 2018 RSL 4-0
- NYC has slipped to 3rd place on the PPG standings in the East, and a 3-way tie for third league wide. NYC's next opponent is part of that 3-way.
- Consecutive scorelines of 0-3, 3-1, and 0-4 drop the Goal Differential down below where it was last year.
- In its six wins, NYC's cumulative GD is +12, so when it wins it does so by an average of 2 goals.
- In its 2 losses, the GD is an average of -3.5.
- NYC's 1.33 PPG in 6 Away games is right between its 2016 record (1.41) and 2017 record (1.29).
- NYC is only at 1-1-2 for 1.25 PPG against the East so far this year. It's only 4 games, but NYC's 2.0 PPG is almost entire due to crushing the West at 5-1-0 and 2.50 PPG. On the up side, NYC has had only 1 Home game against the East with 3 Away. On the down side, neither of NYC's 2 Away wins are against the East.
- Two big losses in 3 games feels awful, but many big goals are well within reach, even if a season more or less like the last 2 suddenly seems more likely:
- Finally, here's a Twitter thread dated about a week ago. Minkus put together a graph showing a bell curve for each team's likely Total Points based on their xGoals in each match. It takes a minute to figure out how it works but is quite simple once you grasp it. The bottom line is that NYC has been rather lucky in its results according to xGoals. Go down the thread and he has similar graphs using PPG instead of Total Points. You don't have to think xGoals is perfect to find this unsettling.
Had been wondering about our worst losses, so thanks for falling on the sword. LAG, Red Wedding, and last week were the three I remembered specifically.
Minor surprise for me was that there was only 1 in 2015, and it came pretty late in the season. Until then, though the team lost a lot, it was never blown out. Some games they were outclassed, to be sure, but they didn't lead to big scores.
You see, Chris Wingert is a guy that you build your team around. No blowouts.
- The bad news is that Atlanta has as many Away wins as they had all last year after just 5 Away Games. The worse news is that they are actually playing better Away than at Home. They won't finish with 2.4 PPG Away, but if they continue to excel Away they will likely win both SS and the CCL spot.
- The good news is that their Away record has not been tough. Ranking teams by PPG in a combined table, they have played 6, 11, 15, 16, and 17. Their loss was to the 11 (Houston) and the 6 is the probably over-ranked Orlando, who have beaten up their own soft schedule (Away to just 5 (the loss to NYC), 14 and 19).
- Here is the Away schedule difficulty for some other top rivals for position this year
- Red Bulls have played only 4 Away (to be fair they have 2 games in hand) against 6 (ORL again), 12, 17, 19.
- Columbus has 1 Away win against 14, 15, 18, 22, 23
- SKC has 3 Away wins against 1, 9, 15, 17, 19
- LAFC has an impressive 4 Away wins against not-so-impressive 1, 12, 13, 17, 18, 21
- The best news is that the NYCFC 2-2-3 Away record was compiled against 1, 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 20. The 10 is Portland, who has not dropped any points at home yet (only 3 games).
- Still, Atlanta has its 4 Away wins in hand, while NYC just has a schedule that gets easier. Winning 4 of 5 Away is impressive no matter the competition. NYC has work to do on the softer part of its Away schedule.
- Also Atlanta lucked out by playing the top 2 West teams -- SKC and LAFC -- at home. They will also play Portland in Atlanta. On the other hand, NYC won 4 points Away to SKC and LAFC while Atlanta won only 3 against them at home.
- Of course, the big wildcard in remaining schedules is Toronto, who are ranked 22 right now but are (almost) certainly much better than that and could be a very tough game both Away and Home. Notably, except for losing to Columbus in Week 1, they have not yet played any of the major contenders noted above, which means (1) nobody but CLB has an advantage if TFC gets good, (2) TFC can gain ground on everyone by winning H2H, and (3) their remaining schedule is hard.
- The line graphs made me notice that NYC is at 1.0 PPG in the last 5 games. But what a gauntlet: ATL (A), POR (A), FCD (H), RB (A), LAFC (A).
- What is need to achieve squad goals:
- Looking at this last table, remember that NYC has a chance for an outstanding finish if they can keep it together: NER (H), DCU (H), MTL (A), CHI (H), MIN (A), DCU (A), PHI (H).
- PPG standings:
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We are now down to 5th in PPG league wide, which is cause for concern. On the other hand, we have played only 4 of 11 at home, and we've played a very difficult schedule.
That's just it, we've probably had the toughest opening schedule of any team, and look where we are. Then again, it doesn't get much easier in the immediate future:
COL (H) - we should win
HOU (A) - very hard place to play, should be happy with a point
ORL (H) - we should win
ATL (H) - this is a hard one
TOR (H) - this is also a hard one.
CHI (A) - another tough one, tough they've had their struggles this season and it's away
NJ (H) - we know how this goes
MTL (H) - with torres, but we should win
CLB (H) - again a hard one
I really only see 3 of the next 9 matches as ones we really should win (COL, ORL, MTL). Otherwise we have 2 tough road matchups @ HOU & CHI. And a murderers row coming to YS; ATL, TOR, NJ, CLB. The good new is that if we can win those home matches, we gain some good ground points wise versus teams we are in direct competition with for playoff seeding and the CCL race. And we get to play them all at home.
It’ll get a lot easier and goals will flow in bucketloads because we’ve been saving Lewis’ legs for the stretch run.
I agree there are few gimmes. Those are really back-loaded this year at the end of the season. But if NYC is who we think and hope they are, they should get 20-21 of these 27 points.
One interesting thing is that so many teams are projecting to huge point totals.
For example, Toronto’s performance last year, the greatest regular season in history, was 69 points or 2.03 ppg. This year FOUR teams (ATL, SKC, LAFC, RBNJ) are basically projecting to equal the greatest regular season in history at 2 PPG or higher.
Throw out Toronto’s record season and the two years before that 60 points were needed to win the Shield. Right now, 60 points is basically the playoff line in the East (Columbus is fifth projecting at 60 points). The top 3 teams in the West are projecting to 60 points as well - meaning eight teams would get to what historically is a shield season.
Atlanta is projecting to blow away Torontos record by eight points (77). SKC is also projecting to beat it by two and LAFC/RBNJ get to 68 points.
No way this is sustainable over a whole season, right?
For example, Toronto’s performance last year, the greatest regular season in history, was 69 points or 2.03 ppg. This year FOUR teams (ATL, SKC, LAFC, RBNJ) are basically projecting to equal the greatest regular season in history at 2 PPG or higher.
Throw out Toronto’s record season and the two years before that 60 points were needed to win the Shield. Right now, 60 points is basically the playoff line in the East (Columbus is fifth projecting at 60 points). The top 3 teams in the West are projecting to 60 points as well - meaning eight teams would get to what historically is a shield season.
Atlanta is projecting to blow away Torontos record by eight points (77). SKC is also projecting to beat it by two and LAFC/RBNJ get to 68 points.
No way this is sustainable over a whole season, right?
It is with teams as bad as Seattle, Colorado, San Jose, and DC hemorrhaging points. Hell, throw in Toronto since they’re playing like they stuck their hand in a wood chipper in the CCL with the way theyre allowing points to wash down the gutter.
I have noticed this as well. I don't think this pace holds, but I do think something new is emerging. In bunches I predict:
- Orlando, Revs and Crew have all had soft schedules. They slip, but the playoff line will remain on the high end. The current projected gap of 20 points between 6th and 7th will narrow, not just because of regression to mean but because TFC will climb up. The gap between 6th and 8th will remain substantial.
- The top 4 cross-conference teams you note"ATL, SKC, LAFC, RBNJ" have had modestly easy schedules and slip somewhat-- both because of that and because it's a long season and all are due for at least a mini-slump -- but still all finish at 58-65. There's is a not unreasonable shot they all finish above 60.
- I think NYC will also get to 60 at least.
- Those extra points up top mean the bottom 8-11 in each conference will be very bad by historic measures.
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