2018 - Running With the Numbers and the Quest for Everything

[Gotham Gator]

It's the growing demise of MLS parity, as has been predicted and noted all over, including several people here.

I think that has a lot to do with it. I've been predicting that we end up with 4-5 teams that are a substantial cut above the rest in any given season, but that may be wrong. It may be that there is just a general spreading out of the league top to bottom. There is certainly less parity.

 

[canchon]

https://twitter.com/x/status/996110267644829705

 

[mgarbowski]

https://twitter.com/x/status/996110267644829705

I was just going to post this. That is a huge gap. The entire range from ATL to CLB is 0.33. The space between NYC and ATL is 0.38.

 

[Gotham Gator]

A bit about the schedules of the top teams right now. Here are the rankings of each team's opponents according to the recent rankings by Doyle.

ATL: 3, 4, 5, 8, @11, @13, @16, 17, @19, 22, 23
NJR: 4, @7, 12, @13, @15, @16, 19, @20, 22
LAF: @1, 4, @9, @14, 14, @15, @16, @17, 19, @22
NYC: @1, @2, @3, @5, 7, 8, @10, @12, 15, 16, @21
SKC: @1, 4, @10, @13, 14, @16, 17, @20, @20, 21, 23
TOR: 7, @10, @12, 13, 14, 15, 18, @20, @22
ORL: 1, 2*, @4, 15, 16 @18, 19, @20, 21, 23
DAL: @3, @4, @10, 12, 14, 15, 16, 18, 20
CLB: @6, @10, @13, 13, @14, 17, @18, 18, 21, 22, 23, 23
NER: 4, 5, 6, 8, @9, @11, @18, 20, @22, 22

 

[mgarbowski]

A bit about the schedules of the top teams right now. Here are the rankings of each team's opponents according to the recent rankings by Doyle.

ATL: 3, 4, 5, 8, @11, @13, @16, 17, @19, 22, 23
NJR: 4, @7, 12, @13, @15, @16, 19, @20, 22
LAF: @1, 4, @9, @14, 14, @15, @16, @17, 19, @22
NYC: @1, @2, @3, @5, 7, 8, @10, @12, 15, @16, @21
SKC: @1, 4, @10, @13, 14, @16, 17, @20, @20, 21, 23
TOR: 7, @10, @12, 13, 14, 15, 18, @20, @22
ORL: 1, 2*, @4, 15, 16 @18, 19, @20, 21, 23
DAL: @3, @4, @10, 12, 14, 15, 16, 18, 20
CLB: @6, @10, 12, @13, 13, @14, 17, @18, 18, 21, 22, 23, 23
NER: 4, 5, 6, 8, @9, @11, @18, 20, @22, 22

Some quick counts.

NYC has played 7 of the top 10, and 5 of those Away.
REVS have played 5, 1 Away.
ATL has played 4, none Away.
Everybody else has less.

We've shown 17 ways to Tuesday NYC has had the toughest schedule. Now NYC needs to start winning the easier games

 

[Gotham Gator]

Let's break that down a bit.

ATL: Avg. 12.8 | 7 home, 4 away
NJR: Avg. 14.2 | 4 home, 5 away
LAF: Avg. 13.1 | 4 home, 7 away
NYC: Avg. 9.1 | 4 home, 7 away
SKC: Avg. 14.4 | 6 home, 5 away
TOR: Avg. 14.8 | 5 home, 4 away
ORL: Avg. 13.9 | 7 home, 3 away
DAL: Avg. 12.4 | 6 home, 3 away
CLB: Avg. 16.5 | 7 home, 5 away
NER: Avg. 12.5 | 6 home, 4 away

 

[Gotham Gator]

Of note.

• Our schedule has been ridiculous; not only tough teams, but away from home.
• Columbus is the opposite; they've collected a lot of points but a much easier schedule than anyone else.
• New England on the other hand has played the 3rd toughest collection of teams; they're pretty good.
• Orlando's schedule is boosted a bit because it includes playing New Jersey, but that was the B team.
• Toronto not only has a big gap to make up, but they've gone through an easier part of their schedule.

 

[adam]

Some quick counts.

NYC has played 7 of the top 10, and 5 of those Away.
REVS have played 5, 1 Away.
ATL has played 4, none Away.
Everybody else has less.

We've shown 17 ways to Tuesday NYC has had the toughest schedule. Now NYC needs to start winning the easier games

But our next 9 games are still rediculously hard, just at mostly home.

 

[mgarbowski]

But our next 9 games are still rediculously hard, just at mostly home.

The opponents' PPG to date is 1.72 with H/A adjustment per the tweet a few posts above. In the next 9 it is 1.17.

 

[Sabo]

Doyle rates 5 teams in the top tier of MLS. https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2018/05/14/armchair-analyst-all-23-mls-teams-ranked-tier-revisited

He pointed out that we have already played each of the other 4 teams away and went 1-1-2. That is the kind of away record against top teams you expect from a team fighting for the Supporters Shield.

 

[mgarbowski]

• NYC has more points at home than Atlanta does in 2 fewer games. Atlanta is outpacing NYC on the road, albeit against somewhat lesser competition. I don't think that many folks saw both of those coming. The Away game in Houston this coming week is the sort of game NYC will need to win to keep pace with Atlanta's Away record and RB overall.
• While it is a positive that NYC is done with what was probably the toughest part of its schedule, and Atlanta and RB probably have yet to face theirs, it is not the case that ATL and RB will have to go through something similar to NYC this year. NYC has already faced away games against the top 3 teams in the West (SKC, LAFC, and POR). Atlanta and Red Bulls both play all 3 of those teams at home this year. Columbus -- like NYCFC -- plays all of them on the road.
• Speaking of which, here are the next 5 games for Columbus: @SKC, TFC, RBNY, ATL, @LAFC. By the end of that we should have a good idea if the Crew is an illusion held afloat by an easy early schedule or the real deal.
• With Houston next week, NYC will have played 9 of its first 13 against the West. All that is left is @SEA 7/29, VAN 8/4, and @MIN 9/29. The club sits at 6-1-1 through 8 games, evenly split Home and Away. NYC will play 5 at Home and 7 Away against the West this year. It makes up for deficit that with extra home games against both Orlando and the Red Bulls.
• The club PPG is 2.375 against the West and only 1.25 in the East, though to be fair, the latter represents only 4 games, 3 of them Away, and 2 of those Away against the top 2 teams in the league to date. NYC has no more games in Harrison or Atlanta and 3 at home against those teams.
• I added an orange line for bye position in the East. If it ever looks like NYC will be in danger of dropping to 5th I will add one for 4th Place.
• Astonishing that right now the projection for 4th Place and a first round home playoff game in the East is higher than what would win Supporters Shield most years before last. I believe it is shaping up to be a 3-team dogfight for the top 2 spots and a bye. As long as you have a Home game and probably win, I'm not sure it is a great disadvantage to finish 3rd. Maybe a play-in game is what NYC needs to shake off its First Leg blues, but I still hope for Supporters Shield and that 2-year cumulative record CCL spot.
• Here are the line graphs and squad goals. The latter shows how hard it is to expect NYC will finish with lower than roughly 60 points this year.

• NYC's worst 2 and best 2 games roughly cancel out: 4-0 and 4-0 against 0-4 and 0-3.

 

[Kenny]

I sure don't like that PPG trend line

 

[mgarbowski]

I sure don't like that PPG trend line

Well the key thing is at what level does it start to modulate. In both 2016 and 2017 it happened around Game 18, and once it did, things didn't move very much. The team is still above the level for those years. Also, after you win 16 of your first potential 18 points, it's almost certain that the trend will be down.

 

[Ulrich]

Well the key thing is at what level does it start to modulate. In both 2016 and 2017 it happened around Game 18, and once it did, things didn't move very much. The team is still above the level for those years. Also, after you win 16 of your first potential 18 points, it's almost certain that the trend will be down.

It may not have been if certain people didn't get distracted flirting with other certain organizations.

 

[Kenny]

Also, after you win 16 of your first potential 18 points, it's almost certain that the trend will be down.

This is a good point. Still, let's hope it has bottomed out at about 2.

 

[mgarbowski]

• NYC is now winless in its last 5 Away games. In 2017 the longest Away winless streak was 2 games. In 2016 the team had one streak of 5 games winless Away, while achieving the best overall Away record in its short history. In 2015 the club had both a 5 and 6 game winless Away streak (and 0.882 PPG). The 2017 away record was 1.294 PPG, 6 Wins and 22 points. 2016 was 1.412 PPG, 7 Wins and 24 points (against just 8 wins /30 points at home).
• With 9 Away games left, 3-2-4 gets 22 points to match last year, and that is well within reach, though we hoped for better. 4-2-3 yields 24 points and matching 2016. The optimistic reach goal would be 5-2-2 and 26 Away points.
• With all that, it's starting to appear that if NYC is going to win either SS or the 2-year CCL spot, they will have to do so with one of the best Home records in the league and a solid Away record. Going into the season I very much expected the opposite.
• 
  
• NYC has the Fourth Best PPG and third in the East after a brutal schedule. The upcoming opponents are legitimately tough but 6 of 7 are at home and NYC needs to dominate or probably resign itself to a one-game playoff round (or hope other teams stumble even more). Fortunately there remains a somewhat substantial gap between NYC and 5th place, so at worst that 1-game playoff should be at home (Stadium TBD).
• Full season goals and how to get there:
• Well, exceeding 70 points was always a stretch, but it seemed a reasonable stretch to consider after the first 7 games. We are starting to reach a point, though, where it would take a run of truly uncommon form to get there. To reach that, the team cannot lose more than 2 games over the last 21, or it can lose 3 (and even 4) but win nearly every game it does not lose. I'm not ready to drop those possibilities from the chart, but disappointments in the next 7 games could do it.
• Finally, the line graphs, and again, with the worst of the schedule probably behind us, there is hope the lines start moving up.
• 
• The last Goal Differential downturn in 2018 caused by the Houston loss is obscured by the 2017 line. The team GD for both years was 9 after Game 12 and 7 after Game 13.

 

[mgarbowski]

Had some down time and made a new chart this week. Made the subjective but reasonable decision that Montreal, DC and Chicago wold just add clutter. Of those Chicago has the best claim to relevance. This includes the midweek results from 2 days ago.

 

[Gotham Gator]

I like that chart.

I also like the table beneath it. Good presentation.

The last few games have not always been pretty, but we are hanging around with a favorable schedule over the balance of the season.

 

[adam]

Guys. We’ve only lost games 7, 9 & 13. All away, where it’s very hard to win in this league. We’ve also not dropped a SINGLE FREAKING POINT at home. 5-0-0. Best in the league. And we play a short handed Orlando at home today. There was no slowdown, we just can’t be perfect. On pace for one of the best all time points totals in league history. I don’t think Atlanta & Columbus keep the current pace.

For the record, it doesn’t feel as good because PV’s shit tactics cost us a bunch of points, and we all know we could be doing better, on our talent and play alone. But it’s still damn good.

 

[LionNYC]

Guys. We’ve only lost games 7, 9 & 13. All away, where it’s very hard to win in this league. We’ve also not dropped a SINGLE FREAKING POINT at home. 5-0-0. Best in the league. And we play a short handed Orlando at home today. There was no slowdown, we just can’t be perfect. On pace for one of the best all time points totals in league history. I don’t think Atlanta & Columbus keep the current pace.

For the record, it doesn’t feel as good because PV’s shit tactics cost us a bunch of points, and we all know we could be doing better, on our talent and play alone. But it’s still damn good.

I think I said earlier in the year how Pep’s City team year will effect fans ideas of how Vieira’s City team should do this year. We’re as loaded as we ever were on talent.