2018 - Running With the Numbers and the Quest for Everything

[mgarbowski]

I think it's time to level some attention on the neglected stepchild of MLS, the Supporters Shield race. That means taking a look at the West.

• Dallas and Sporting KC are both ahead of NYC. All the attention has been on Atlanta because of the Eastern Conference competition, and the 2-year CCL spot race. SKC has no CCL relevance, as they already qualified with their USOC win last year; Dallas started this year 11 points back (their current point total puts them even with the Red Bulls on adam's CCL Race chart, albeit with one fewer game in hand). But both SKC and Dallas factor into the SS and even if you don't care about that, both SKC and FCD are potential MLS Cup Final opponents should NYC ever get that far, and playing them in Yankee Stadium would be nice. NYC has won against both teams, which is a real accomplishment: Dallas has not lost to anyone else and SKC's has only one other loss. They are ahead of NYC because almost nobody else can beat them. They also both have more away wins than NYC despite playing fewer Away games to date. They still have both games remaining against each other -- one of those in Week 33, so points will be dropped by somebody there, and maybe a draw means points dropped for both. Dallas hosts Atlanta in a midweek Independence Day matchup where I expect we will prefer Dallas. SKC has to go to Portland this Saturday, where the Timbers have not lost. I am going to disagree with Adam's CCL post from this morning and root for the Timbers.
• More from the above chart: the West has 3 teams worse than Montreal. But overall the West is much improved over last year. I will update the Interconference Play thread soon, and the East has a small lead, having played most of the games at home. Last year the Fifth Place East team had more points than the best of the West, and it was clear by this point of the season that the East winner would win the SS. That is not the case this year. The East can win the SS to be sure, but it is just not a certainty.

• For the first time this year I think Toronto will have to fight to make the playoffs. They still have a good shot, if only because Orlando and the Union seem destined to self-destruct, but it is going to take a significant run. They now need 1.77 PPG to get to 50 points. Though they managed 2.03 PPG over a full season last year, 1.77 is still a tough ask and such a turn-around for a team that seems to have a major hangover from 2 straight MLS cup final runs and their CCL play this year.
• The NYC year to year line charts:

• NYCFC's next MLS season win will be number 50 of their history. Their next loss will be number 49.
• Final season point goals:

 

[LionNYC]

Throwing all the numbers out the door. A loss or even a tie vs. Atlanta, Vieira leaving, and Herrera out for the season, and I'm writing off contending for MLS Cup this year (unless I see some major front office work to fill all the gaps).

 

[Brooklyn Blue]

Throwing all the numbers out the door. A loss or even a tie vs. Atlanta, Vieira leaving, and Herrera out for the season, and I'm writing off contending for MLS Cup this year (unless I see some major front office work to fill all the gaps).

Supporters Shield, yes. MLS Cup, no.

A playoff tournament lends itself to a team running hot for a few games. This team has enough talent to be the one that does that.

 

[mgarbowski]

I skipped a Week 15 update as Week 16 was both starting and finishing just 3 days later.

• Atlanta just keeps winning road games. Their Away game PPG is 2.13 which is better than any team's combined full record. But Atlanta is not the only team getting it done Away. Here is a list of teams with a better Away record than NYCFC right now: Atlanta, Dallas, SKC, LAFC, RB, Columbus, Vancouver, Chicago, Portland and the Galaxy. That is basically every team NYC is trying to best for top of the East, for CCL, and Supporters Shield, plus a few head scratchers. Some of these are barely ahead of NYC on Away PPG, but the Pigeons should be well ahead of them. To be fair, NYC's Away schedule has been extremely tough, but this is still a disappointment.
• Atlanta winning in Columbus was especially disappointing as it was one of 4 remaining Away games that stood apart from the rest of their schedule as being tough. The remaining 3 at this point are Dallas, in Harrison, and at Toronto on Decision Day, which is looking less and less tough every week. Their other Away games are going to be Philadelphia, Montreal, Orlando, DC, Colorado, San Jose. Anything can happen, especially at Away games, but except for Philadelphia and maybe DC, I don't see these teams posing much of a threat. If Atlanta is going to stumble, it will likely be injuries, or just an inexplicable downturn in their run of form.
• NYC is 3-3-2, 1.375 PPG, over its last 8 games, evenly split between Home and Away. That's not good at all.

• By virtue of PPG, NYC has a whisker thin edge over RB, but if RB wins it's extra remaining game, it has the upper hand.
• Comparing East and West, the West team is better at spots 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, and 9, with spot 5 being a draw.

• Right now, the first 6 lines on the "what if" table all require NYC to play better than it has to date, and its record over 8 games, basically a quarter season, is way below all of them. The schedule gets easier, but if results do not turn around soon, true excellence and other regular season goals will move out of reach.

• Toronto has to finish above 2 of these teams to make the playoffs. Orlando and Philly are making that seem possible right now despite TFC's continued disappointing results.

 

[mgarbowski]

• Yesterday was NYCFC's 50th win in regular season MLS. They have played 118 games for a PPG of 1.517. The complete record is 50-39-29. Home PPG is 1.847. Away PPG is 1.186.
• The 2018 Away PPG is 1.125 and needs to be better.
• The top 3 in the East have opened a substantial gap between them and the rest of the conference. The projected difference between the Red Bulls and Crew is almost 15 points at year end. That is twice as large as the next biggest gap between RSL and Portland at just under 7 points.
• NYCFC has a schedule that should allow it to improve its road record.
  
• NYC has only 7 games remaining against the current projected playoff teams in both conferences. There are no more games against those teams in the West. Against the East Conference playoff teams, NYC has 5 Home games remaining (RB, RB, CLB, NER and PHI) and only 2 Away (CLB and PHI).
• Against the current non-playoff teams, there are 4 Home (CHI, MTL, DCU, VAN) and 7 Away (ORL, CHI, MTL, TOR, DCU, MNU, SEA).
• In contrast, 7 of the 8 Away games to date have been against teams above the playoff line, while only 3 of the 8 Home games have been. I expect that NYCFC will not remain undefeated at Home, but should more than double its Away wins.

• As a for example, NYC can get to the 11 wins neighborhood by winning 7 of 9 remaining at Home plus 4 of 9 Away.
• Finally, I added Chicago to the below. They're not exactly tearing up the chart, but they deserve to be there at least as much as Orlando or Toronto at this point.

 

[adam]

• Yesterday was NYCFC's 50th win in regular season MLS. They have played 118 games for a PPG of 1.517. The complete record is 50-39-29. Home PPG is 1.847. Away PPG is 1.186.
• The 2018 Away PPG is 1.125 and needs to be better.View attachment 8803
• The top 3 in the East have opened a substantial gap between them and the rest of the conference. The projected difference between the Red Bulls and Crew is almost 15 points at year end. That is twice as large as the next biggest gap between RSL and Portland at just under 7 points.
• NYCFC has a schedule that should allow it to improve its road record.
  
• NYC has only 7 games remaining against the current projected playoff teams in both conferences. There are no more games against those teams in the West. Against the East Conference playoff teams, NYC has 5 Home games remaining (RB, RB, CLB, NER and PHI) and only 2 Away (CLB and PHI).
• Against the current non-playoff teams, there are 4 Home (CHI, MTL, DCU, VAN) and 7 Away (ORL, CHI, MTL, TOR, DCU, MNU, SEA).
• In contrast, 7 of the 8 Away games to date have been against teams above the playoff line, while only 3 of the 8 Home games have been. I expect that NYCFC will not remain undefeated at Home, but should more than double its Away wins.

View attachment 8804
View attachment 8805

• As a for example, NYC can get to the 11 wins neighborhood by winning 7 of 9 remaining at Home plus 4 of 9 Away.
• Finally, I added Chicago to the below. They're not exactly tearing up the chart, but they deserve to be there at least as much as Orlando or Toronto at this point.

View attachment 8806

11 wins sounds pretty doable when you phrase it that way. I also am gaining faith in Dome, irrational or not after 1 match. Feels like he’s tactically superior to other MLS managers. I didn’t believe PV was.

 

[mgarbowski]

NYCFC has finally played the same amount of Home and Away games, and we're as closes as can be to the season halfway point while that first point is true. So I played a bit with league-wide Home/Away splits. In the end, I'm not sure this tells us too much of substance so I probably won't keep it up regularly, but here are some highlights.

NYC not only has the best Home record and PPG in the league at 2.75, it has the largest GD (+17), most Home goals (21), tied for lowest Home GA (4), and adjusted per game the highest Goals/g at 2.63 and tied for lowest GA/g at 0.50, and therefore also highest GD/g at +2.13.

Away, NYC is tied for 7th best Away PPG at 1.13, tied for 13th best GD at -6, tied for 7th best Away Goals at 11, 17th in the league with 17 GA, and adjusted per game tied for 8th best Goals For/g at 1.38 and 14th best GA/g at 2.13. NYC's Away GD/g of -0.75 is 14th in the league.

NYC's Home GD exceeds its Away GD by 23 which tops the league. The same is true for the H/A GD/g split of 2.88. NYC's H/A PPG differential of 1.62 is second to RSL at 1.88. RSL achieved this mostly due to its 0.50 Away PPG.

Atlanta is the only team with a better Away PPG, with 2.13 Away and 1.89 at Home. Oddly, Atlanta's Away GD is only +3 due to losing their first game Away 0-4 in Houston.

San Jose is alone with a better Away GD/g than Home, but both are negative, and San Jose still has a better Home record than it does Away.

 

[SoupInNYC]

11 wins sounds pretty doable when you phrase it that way. I also am gaining faith in Dome, irrational or not after 1 match. Feels like he’s tactically superior to other MLS managers. I didn’t believe PV was.

I will say though, that PV received a ton of tactical applause when he first came on the scene here. Remember when he busted out the W-M in our home opener against TFC two years ago? People were loving that.

 

[Gotham Gator]

I will say though, that PV received a ton of tactical applause when he first came on the scene here. Remember when he busted out the W-M in our home opener against TFC two years ago? People were loving that.

Fond memories. I remember wasting a lot of brain cells trying to figure out how you generate width in the WM.

Spoiler

You don't.

Bar was a lot lower after 2015.

 

[roxfontaine]

also am gaining faith in Dome, irrational or not after 1 match. Feels like he’s tactically superior to other MLS managers. I didn’t believe PV was.

PV definitely was. The biggest issue, I think, was that he was always system --> players. Dome seems to be players --> system. When PV ran into the few other managers that understand our system as well as he did, we struggled.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

PV definitely was. The biggest issue, I think, was that he was always system --> players. Dome seems to be players --> system. When PV ran into the few other managers that understand our system as well as he did, we struggled.

Nailed it. And that’s why we would never have won a trophy under him in the state he was in.

He always failed to consider that others would get what he was trying to do as well as he did.

It’s the sort of hubris that bugs me in any endeavor. He was 100% full of that.

That’s not to take anything away from what he did. But it’s just realistically acknowledging where he is as a person and manager.

Vanney always kicked his ass like he was managing simply due to winning a fan vote.

 

[mgarbowski]

NYCFC started its existence with a 6-game Away winless streak. It then never again failed to win for 6 straight Away games until just now. Both six game streaks consist of 4 losses and 2 draws. In between, NYCFC went 19-20-9 Away for 1.375 PPG.

NYC's Away PPG for 2018 is 1.00.

ETA: I fixed an error in NYCFC's Away record between the two winless streaks. Don't math in the heat of frustration.

 

[LionNYC]

NYCFC started its existence with a 6-game Away winless streak. It then never again failed to win for 6 straight Away games until just now. Both six game streaks consist of 4 losses and 2 draws. In between, NYCFC went 19-22-13 Away for 1.30 PPG.

NYC's Away PPG for 2018 is 1.00.

EDIT: We have 8 remaining away matches. Only 1 is against a team that is currently above the playoff line (Columbus). The others are Orlando, Seattle, Toronto, Philadelphia, (Columbus), Montreal, Minnesota, D.C. (in that order).

 

[canchon]

Shield is over unless NYCFC figures out how to play defense (or frankly do simple things like play a high line, defend one on one on the edge, stop giving up headed goals, etc) on the road.

Cup is probably over too because even if they win at YS, they will still have to go on the road - would you have any confidence in NYCFC getting a road result right now? No way.

 

[Seven]

Shield is over unless NYCFC figures out how to play defense (or frankly do simple things like play a high line, defend one on one on the edge, stop giving up headed goals, etc) on the road.

Cup is probably over too because even if they win at YS, they will still have to go on the road - would you have any confidence in NYCFC getting a road result right now? No way.

Playoffs are so much about who is hot at that time, and is so far away, it’s really crazy to already think it’s over. Especially since we have no idea who we get in the transfer window

 

[mgarbowski]

Hello and welcome to your schedule-driven nickname-heavy midpoint update.


Third in the conference. Sixth in the league by PPG. The Wizards and the Golden Wings are within easy reach. The Burn and the MetroStars have effectively the same record and are a bit more of a stretch, with the difference being the Bluebirds have 2 games coming up with Taurine Pushers that can decide that 1-on-1 race, while the Celestes are done with the southwestern Toros. The Five Stripes have opened a gap and hopes of catching United-C probably depend upon them having an Away slump.

Halfway through 2017 the Gotham Blues had 30 points and fans were excited. Halfway through 2018 the Robber Barons have 31 points and fans are distressed. Progress!
This is the best first half performance for Las Palomas in their historic history to date.
Dividing the season into rough quarters of 9-8-8-9 games, 2018 tied for the worst second quarter of the season for the Blue Notes at 1.375 PPG. That's the same as 2015, except that in 2015 1.375 PPG was good for this team.
As noted in the prior post, City is currently on a 6-game Away winless streak that matches its worst. Right now the Tenants have an Away record of 1.00 PPG, which is basically league average (0.99) and their worst since 2015. With 8 Away games left, a realistic hope would be to get 11 points 8 games (1.375 PPG) to bring this season's road performance up to the neighborhood of its historic average. For reference, and we can hope but certainly not expect to match this, the Squatters' best 8-game Away stretch was 5-2-1 (2.00) in 2016, including a 4-0-1 (2.60) stretch. That was done against tough competition, too. The Home PPG of the teams in the 8-game run was 1.79, and the opponents' home PPG in the 4-of-5 game core was 1.91. Which probably is a hint that a road streak has more to do with your performance than the quality of the opponent. The home PPG of NYC's remaining Away opponents is 1.62.


So, getting to 70 is tough to imagine, and even 65 is very hard at this point.
Remaining schedule strength, based on opponent H/A PPG:
ATL 1.27
FCD 1.45
LAFC 1.28
NYC 1.31
RB 1.50
SKC 1.43
The league PPG to date is 1.39.
I know, every one of you is thinking, but Mark, the Swamp creatures' opposing PPG is inflated because they play the Blue Hawks twice at Yankee Stadium, where City Actual has a league best 2.75 Home PPG, and yet the Ruby Bovines always beat the Ceruleans. Thanks for reminding me. Their adjusted opponent PPG excluding the Cyans is 1.34, which is not that tough, so the 718s better take care of business themselves.

The race for bottom playoff spots in the East is a mad scramble among the desperate, and I have been forced to add Montreal, who started the season losing 10 of their first 13 games yet have passed the Purple Lions and the Chester Conjunction, and are now just below the playoff line behind the Burning Fervor of Chicago. Les Impingements also have no draws through 18 games, which is just weird. The only team not on this chart now is ManU-B

 

[mgarbowski]

Mini-midweek update because last night messed with the top of the PPG standings:

Dallas now tops the league after beating Atlanta, and RB tops the East.

A commenter in the recap of the Dallas-Atlanta game on the MLS site asked if Atlanta has beaten any teams above the red line. They have, but it led me to ask how the really top teams have fared against each other. I drew the line at the top 7 PPG teams -- all with a PPG of 1.70 or higher.

RB 4-0-0 3.00 Remaining 3H2A
POR 2-1-3 1.50 Remaining 1H2A
FCD 2-2-2 1.33 Remaining 1H2A
SKC 1-1-1 1.33 Remaining 3H3A
NYC 2-2-3 1.29 Remaining 2H0A
ATL 1-3-3 0.86 Remaining 0H1A
LAFC 0-3-2 0.40 Remaining 2H2A

The Red Bulls record is impressive, even given that 3 of the 4 have been at home. They are quite fortunate in that they play all the top West teams at home this year: Dallas, LAFC, Portland, and SKC. Atlanta has not done well but has just one such game left in Harrison. LAFC has no wins against top teams. SKC still has 6 to go.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Mini-midweek update because last night messed with the top of the PPG standings:
View attachment 8833
Dallas now tops the league after beating Atlanta, and RB tops the East.

A commenter in the recap of the Dallas-Atlanta game on the MLS site asked if Atlanta has beaten any teams above the red line. They have, but it led me to ask how the really top teams have fared against each other. I drew the line at the top 7 PPG teams -- all with a PPG of 1.70 or higher.

RB 4-0-0 3.00 Remaining 3H2A
POR 2-1-3 1.50 Remaining 1H2A
FCD 2-2-2 1.33 Remaining 1H2A
SKC 1-1-1 1.33 Remaining 3H3A
NYC 2-2-3 1.29 Remaining 2H0A
ATL 1-3-3 0.86 Remaining 0H1A
LAFC 0-3-2 0.40 Remaining 2H2A

The Red Bulls record is impressive, even given that 3 of the 4 have been at home. They are quite fortunate in that they play all the top West teams at home this year: Dallas, LAFC, Portland, and SKC. Atlanta has not done well but has just one such game left in Harrison. LAFC has no wins against top teams. SKC still has 6 to go.

This is good stuff. Normally, I would like where we stand - having nothing but two games left against top teams and both at home. However, both are against our personal kryptonite. If we can reverse our recent fortunes against the Red Bulls, we will climb the ladder both here and in the standings. We will know more in 3 days.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

Someone can probably take something from this.

Looks like we now get Sagarin ratings for MLS.

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/mls/sagarin/

 

[mgarbowski]

Someone can probably take something from this.

Looks like we now get Sagarin ratings for MLS.

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/mls/sagarin/

That's gonna take some studying.

One oddity about the latest 538 update. As expected, NYCFC's numbers all improve after beating the Red Bulls, except the SPI score went down, slightly, from 41.5 to 41.4 All I can figure is our most impressive win this year (by numbers/ranking type measures) was away at SKC and they lost twice this week so our strength of wins went down. Probably a couple of other similar results thrown in.