2018 - Running With the Numbers and the Quest for Everything
- Thread starter mgarbowski
- Start date
On the other hand, we demolished Dallas and then they picked themselves up and have reversed what SKC has been doing so if Dallas keep performing, it should rise to counteract SKC's slump, no?
NYCFC's SPI per 538 has gone up by 3.4 points since pre-season. I was just addressing the drop this week, which seems an anomaly since NYC beat one of the two teams ranked higher than it. Dallas did have a nice win over top ranked Atlanta, but also lost to RSL this week, so I guess that didn't help much, and not enough to offset SKC losing twice.
Personally the whole SPI thing confuses me a lot, so I choose to ignore it (also, because it never seems very accurate at all...)
Even with this win over RB, I still see us as finishing #3 this year- unless we can keep a streak going.
This will be a low text level update for the week. The graphs will have to do except for a couple of quick points.
- Dallas gave us a big boost beating Atlanta midweek, but I was disappointed by Atlanta's result in Philadelphia. The Union played quite well, I thought, but did not finish some good chances. Atlanta has a very easy schedule remaining and Away at Philadelphia was actually one of their tougher remaining challenges as the Union has a big H/A disparity in performance.
- If David Villa plays every minute from now to the end of the season it will be still less than last year and average 69 minutes per game overall.
RSL is the second best home side in the league, only trailing us on avg pts/game. They’re legit tough because of their altitude variable - is that where Dallas lost to them?
With a win on Wednesday, we will have reached our point total from the 2015 season (37).
Somewhere Kreis is having coffee and praying we go on a 16 game losing streak.....
Orlando’s line on that graph is pure comedy. Somebody call a doctor after looking at that flatline.
Yes. Definitely not a shameful loss for Dallas, who also played at Minnesota, Home to Atlanta, and then at RSL in the space of 8 days.
Interesting stuff via the MLS's ranking of remaining schedules - which takes into account whether the games are home or away.
We have an easier finish, but Atlanta and LAFC have it even easier. In fact, none of the shield contenders have a particularly tough second half.
https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2018...le-rankings-update-who-has-toughest-road-left
We have an easier finish, but Atlanta and LAFC have it even easier. In fact, none of the shield contenders have a particularly tough second half.
https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2018...le-rankings-update-who-has-toughest-road-left
Worth noting that we are now reaching the point in the season where our PPG stabilizes and we begin to know where we can expect to finish point wise. It happens around the mid-point of the season each year, as seen in the second chart above. In 2016, we hit our final PPG after Game 16; last year it was after Game 18; 2015 is not on the chart, but the trend was the same, hitting final PPG after Games 16 and 18 and not fluctuating too much.
I think this is probably true of the large majority of MLS teams each season, save for a few notable exceptions such as Seattle two years ago. Absent something compelling (big summer signing, injuries, etc.), you are what you are after half the season is played.
I think this means we are likely (but not certainly) going to end up behind Atlanta and battling NJ for 2nd in the East and Dallas and LAFC for 2nd overall.
Except you forgot to put in a major variable: Dome coming in. We still don't have a definitive answer as to what kind of stability he brings, and the fact that he came in at the exact half-way point just means that we should have more instability ppg-wise, no? unless I'm doing that wrong.
It's certainly possible that makes a difference one way or another, yes. I actually think it will be neutral, but I don't think we know that yet.
My happy-thought optimism rationale would be that we reverse the team's away failures and even win 4-5 games. That would leave us with a not unreasonable 6-7 away wins for the year. Win 6 of 8 at home, and 4 or 5 on the road, and the PPG climbs up to the 2.00+ range and has us challenging Atlanta.
I mean, it could happen.
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I follow you on the data for sure but we aren't really behind. We have 2 games in hand and another head to head with RBNJ.
H2H @ home too and hopefully with at least one striker if not 2.
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