2019 Roster Discussion

[Midas Mulligan]

Went through and tried to collect the data manually. There were a couple of games where Villa subbed on late after most or all of the goals had been scored so I counted those games as without Villa. All others that Villa played I counted as with Villa. Including playoffs we played 24 games with Villa and 14 games without him. Maxi and ITS did score at a higher rate when Villa was out but not nearly high enough to cover for the absence of Villa:

Total team goals per game with Villa: 1.42
Total team goals per game without Villa: 1.04

Goals per player Without Villa (14 games)

Maxi 6
Medina 3
ITS 7
Tinnerholm 2
Berget 2
Ofori 1
Mata 1
Lewis 1
Taty 1
Wallace 1

Goals per player With Villa (24 Games)

Maxi 3
Medina 2
Villa 15
Tinnerholm 1
Ring 2
ITS 5
Mata 1
Callens 1
Berget 2
Chanot 2

Not because I think it matters, but could you break that down by dates, with a particular focus on the date in time at which Patrick departed as our manager.

Just out of curiosity, of course. Not because I expect the numbers to be far worse post PV.

(Slicer function on excel pivot. But really, not curious at all. Totally don’t care and expect it will be more or less the same)

 

[ALBNYfan]

Does Villa's return correspond with when Dome really started tinkering?

 

[mgarbowski]

I split the games differently than gbservis did and got very different results:

Villa games are games in which he started and went 50 minutes or more. There were 19 of those. That leaves 15 where he didn't start and go at least 50. I got the following lines:

With Villa (19 games)
Goals For 28
Goal Diff -1
Goals Against 29
Points 26
GPG 1.47
GAA 1.53
PPG 1.37

Without Villa (15 games)
Goals For 31
Goal Diff +15
Goals Against 16
Points 30
GPG 2.07
GAA 1.07
PPG 2.00

The Scorers in non Villa Games were
Shradi 7 of his 11
Maxi 6 of 8
Berget 4 of 4
Medina 4 of 6
Tinny and Ring 2 (each), that is 4 of their 6 combined
1 each for Mata, Ofori, Castellanos, Wallace, and Lewis
Also Villa scored a PK in a game he did not start that ended in a draw

The team won more, scored more and gave up fewer goals without Villa. By a lot.

Together, Shradi, Maxi, Berget and Medina scored 21 of their 29 goals in the 15 games without Villa. Holy fucking crap.

This is the untold story of 2018.

 

[mgarbowski]

Does Villa's return correspond with when Dome really started tinkering?

When he started to tinker is subjective. Villa was injured in Dome's first game against Toronto June 24 (Game 16) and left after 28 minutes. He returned Game 24 also against Toronto on August 12.

 

[Ulrich]

I split the games differently than gbservis did and got very different results:

Villa games are games in which he started and went 50 minutes or more. There were 19 of those. That leaves 15 where he either didn't start or go at least 50. I got the following lines:

With Villa (19 games)
Goals For 28
Goal Diff -1
Goals Against 29
Points 26
GPG 1.47
GAA 1.53
PPG 1.37

Without Villa (15 games)
Goals For 31
Goal Diff +15
Goals Against 16
Points 30
GPG 2.07
GAA 1.07
PPG 2.00

The Scorers in non Villa Games were
Shradi 7 of his 11
Maxi 6 of 8
Berget 4 of 4
Medina 4 of 6
Tinny and Ring 2 of 6 combined
1 each for Mata, Ofori, Castellanos, Wallace, and Lewis
Also Villa scored a PK in a game he did not start that ended in a draw

The team won more, scored more and gave up fewer goals without Villa. By a lot.

Together, Shradi, Maxi, Berget and Medina scored 21 of their 29 goals in the 15 games without Villa. Holy fucking crap.

This is the untold story of 2018.

And yet, without Berget, the player dragging defenders off the ball, that group will be listless.... sigh....

 

[roxfontaine]

The team won more, scored more and gave up fewer goals without Villa. By a lot.

Together, Shradi, Maxi, Berget and Medina scored 21 of their 29 goals in the 15 games without Villa. Holy fucking crap.

This is the untold story of 2018.

I told everyone around me this. It was GLARING.

 

[mgarbowski]

By the way, the H/A splits for with Villa/without Villa games is

With Villa 9H 10A
Without Villa 8H 7A

So that is a slight advantage for the non-Villa games but also is as close as it can be given the odd number split.

 

[dummyrun]

I split the games differently than gbservis did and got very different results:

Villa games are games in which he started and went 50 minutes or more. There were 19 of those. That leaves 15 where he either didn't start and go at least 50. I got the following lines:

With Villa (19 games)
Goals For 28
Goal Diff -1
Goals Against 29
Points 26
GPG 1.47
GAA 1.53
PPG 1.37

Without Villa (15 games)
Goals For 31
Goal Diff +15
Goals Against 16
Points 30
GPG 2.07
GAA 1.07
PPG 2.00

The Scorers in non Villa Games were
Shradi 7 of his 11
Maxi 6 of 8
Berget 4 of 4
Medina 4 of 6
Tinny and Ring 2 of 6 combined
1 each for Mata, Ofori, Castellanos, Wallace, and Lewis
Also Villa scored a PK in a game he did not start that ended in a draw

The team won more, scored more and gave up fewer goals without Villa. By a lot.

Together, Shradi, Maxi, Berget and Medina scored 21 of their 29 goals in the 15 games without Villa. Holy fucking crap.

This is the untold story of 2018.

Been working on an article on this that'll come out next month—it's really interesting stuff. Villa dramatically altered the shape and style of NYCFC's attack.

 

[gbservis]

Based on Dome's quotes and current roster construction it seems like we will play some sort of 4-3-3 with a bunch of interchangeable wingers up top. There's been speculation about Maxi playing on the wing or Medina in the middle. Mitriță is listed in most reports as a CAM/wing. For simplicity let's just say we have 4 attackers, the 3 at the top and a CAM. Since Dome seems to see them all as interchangeable if we ignore who is lining up where who are our day 1 attacking starters. Options are:

1. Maxi
2. Mitriță
3. Medina
4. Lewis
5. Taty
6. ITS
7. Mata

 

[FootyLovin]

Without Villa (15 games)
Goals For 31
Goal Diff +15
Goals Against 16
Points 30
GPG 2.07
GAA 1.07
PPG 2.00

So does this mean we can sign up for 2.00 PPG this year?

 

[Schwallacus]

One Taty flop in the playoffs in a moment that got away from him has been absurdly extrapolated. He rarely flopped during any other occasion, in fact I'd say he proved to be one of our most hard nosed players often taking a hit from a defender and bouncing right back up or fighting for position and giving it right back. I don't know if its some kind of weird Guzan love because of USMNT connections but one moment of a very young player doing something dumb in a super high pressure situation has been wildly blown out of proportion by a large segment of our fan base. Other than the Atlanta game name one other time you saw Taty flop?

Maybe my mind is on something else, but I believe he flopped a few times when he had possession inside the box. I'm not just basing this off one moment against Atlanta. I'm not a lover of Guzan by any means and don't care who the goalie was in the situation, that doesn't have any affect on me calling out a flop.

I'm also going to say I classify a flop as going down softly trying to get a foul called, not just a Neymar-ian mini seizure after someone blew their nose within 6 feet of him. I don't have any exact footage, but I will try to keep an eye out this season for a moment where Taty flops, if he does.

 

[snugglefarts]

we're not looking too bad actually

 

[Fantazma]

we're not looking too bad actually

View attachment 9499

id replace taty with isi. and who the hell knows how good/bad medina will be in that striker position.

 

[Kjbert]

And yet, without Berget, the player dragging defenders off the ball, that group will be listless.... sigh....

Yeap. No one else on our squad in 4 years even remotely understood how to drag a defender away from someone else’s run. Is that worth $800k a year? No. But that shows the value of having a true Striker.

 

[mgarbowski]

So does this mean we can sign up for 2.00 PPG this year?

Guaranteed.

 

[Christopher Jee]

Been working on an article on this that'll come out next month—it's really interesting stuff. Villa dramatically altered the shape and style of NYCFC's attack.

And / or Dome dramatically altered the shape and style of NYCFC's attack around Villa...

 

[Gotham Gator]

I split the games differently than gbservis did and got very different results:

Villa games are games in which he started and went 50 minutes or more. There were 19 of those. That leaves 15 where he didn't start and go at least 50. I got the following lines:

With Villa (19 games)
Goals For 28
Goal Diff -1
Goals Against 29
Points 26
GPG 1.47
GAA 1.53
PPG 1.37

Without Villa (15 games)
Goals For 31
Goal Diff +15
Goals Against 16
Points 30
GPG 2.07
GAA 1.07
PPG 2.00

The Scorers in non Villa Games were
Shradi 7 of his 11
Maxi 6 of 8
Berget 4 of 4
Medina 4 of 6
Tinny and Ring 2 (each), that is 4 of their 6 combined
1 each for Mata, Ofori, Castellanos, Wallace, and Lewis
Also Villa scored a PK in a game he did not start that ended in a draw

The team won more, scored more and gave up fewer goals without Villa. By a lot.

Together, Shradi, Maxi, Berget and Medina scored 21 of their 29 goals in the 15 games without Villa. Holy fucking crap.

This is the untold story of 2018.

Given the difference between the two sets of data, I would really like to know more about the subset of games that the two analyses characterized differently.

 

[gbservis]

Given the difference between the two sets of data, I would really like to know more about the subset of games that the two analyses characterized differently.

If someone knows where the data is structured in a way that can be dropped into a spreadsheet I will dive deeper. It's also possible I counted things wrong as I did it quickly and the only way I came up with was to open each match, look if Villa played or not and then tabulate manually who scored. once I was halfway through I wished I had counted who played each game so I could get a scoring rate per player per game with and without Villa but I was too lazy to go back.

 

[kun]

we're not looking too bad actually

View attachment 9499

Taty over Tajouri-Shradi?

 

[sbrylski]

Medina seems like the worst option for striker, in my opinion. I think Mitrita and Castellanos are the best options at #9.

Everyone else is best at wing probably, sans Maxi, and a handful of players could be tried at 10 if Maxi needs time off.

By the way, some commentator on Reddit was calling Mitrita selfish, which is probably why he scores so much and also why he'd be best at striker probably.