I like New York City's chances:
1) Great record v. Canadian teams
2) Best away record in MLS
3) Toronto played the midweek game. NYCFC got to rest.
4) NYC's DP's are players that are very experienced in big, big matches... and they're considered great because they performed in them. That composure can be massive for NYCFC.
5) It's usually considered an advantage to play the 2nd leg at home. And NYCFC have been almost invincible at home for the last 7 matches. A draw or win in Toronto, and TFC are in very big trouble.
Anything I'm forgetting?
EDIT: Oh, thanks for looking this up @HudsonRiverBlue