Bundesliga 2021/2022
- Thread starter Shwafta
- Start date
Wynalda played in the Bundesliga but that was in the 90's.
Hoppe at Schalke, but he slid off pretty quickly... Though he started off well. Now he's in la liga though.
Sargent "broke out" at Bremen, with 7+2 in his first year, then 4+4 in his second year, then 4+3 in his third year.
Otherwise most players that have gone to BL have been non-striker. There are now a ton of midfielders. I hope Pepi does well!
I guess so yeah, but he only had one good breakout season in BL2 with Union Berlin, then as soon as he made it to the BL with Hamburg and then Hannover he was pretty bad...
But that's what I mean. Our strikers all seem to stall out when they go to Germany. It's a very small sample size so I'm not claiming cause and effect, but I also see no reason to celebrate until someone goes over there and tears it up.
I think he can help them get an extra few wins if he can hit the ground running. They actually have a decent-ish defense, Augsburg has just been unable to score goals. Pepi should presumably help there.** With Fürth all but guaranteed to be relegated, it's really just a fight to not get the other auto relegation spot or relegation playoff. If they can have a similar record to their first half, but change 2 of their ties into wins, that would give them around 40 points, or comfortably mid table. I think he can do that for them.
Their current starting strikers are (stats per Bundesliga only) sitting on seven goals split between three people, who put up 5.62 xG across about 15-16 games. You probably want your top 3 strikers averaging more than 6-7 goals COMBINED across half a season.
1. Andi Zeqiri (9 starts, 3 subs)- 2 goals (2.65 xG) in 764 minutes
2. Florian Niederlechner (5, 6)- 3 goals (2.39 xG) in 423 minutes
3. Michael Gregoritsch (2, 8)- 2 goals (.58 xG) in 318 minutes
By comparison, 2021 with Dallas in MLS;
4. Ricardo Pepi (24, 7)- 13 goals (9.7 xG) in 2092 minutes
**Did John (formerly dummyrun) or someone else have something written about Pepi outperforming his xG substantially? Only caveat, albeit big, is if he regresses towards the mean and underperforms/performs to his not great xG. Then he may look more like the rest of the strikers Augsburg has.
What makes this interesting is that our attacking wingers so far seem to do reasonably well, but also a very small sample size (Pulisic and Reyna).
Striking in Germany is generally not a tough thing because defense in the Bundesliga is absolute Scheiße. I don't think it has to do with those players stalling when they came to Germany, but rather they were just never good to begin with. And I can't think of any strikers in general that rinsed MLS and then went into the Bundesliga.
Pepi will be our first real metric for this, so I'm excited. I also think his style of play fits in really well to Bundesliga defense crushing. He is tall and strong. Take a look at the leading goalscorers (not just top scorer) of the bundesliga over the last 10 years. Aside from the fact like half are Lewandowski, you'll see they're 6'+. and sometimes fast. Pepi, imo, fits perfectly into that category. He won't be top scorer, but he'll do pretty well for himself if he can adjust quickly.
Last edited:
You also forgot Hahn. Funny enough, I checked it out and all those guys are 6'+ as well. Looks like Bundesliga teams figured this out. Surprising they haven't yet figured out the defensive retaliation to it...
Augsburg Formations and Results by Competition
Click here to see the formations most used by Augsburg, along with results for each formation, players in each position and more
www.footballcritic.com
Using ASA, in 2021, Pepi ranked as follows among MLS strikers with at least 1500 minutes (32 total):
5 in Goals - xG (you want to rank lower here, unless you can sustain it year to year, which most cannot)
21 in xG
23 in xG + xA
All per 96 minutes.
Fair, and I'm also partially reacting against the way many USMNT fans seem to designate each of our guys as the next great thing as soon as they sign abroad.
When I looked at their roster via Wikipedia, it listed him as a mid, that's why I didn't include him. Always interesting in the modern game where some sources indicate a player as a striker/winger, and some indicate them as a midfielder. Anywho, Mr. Hahn's stats;You also forgot Hahn. Funny enough, I checked it out and all those guys are 6'+ as well. Looks like Bundesliga teams figured this out. Surprising they haven't yet figured out the defensive retaliation to it...
Augsburg tends to play in a two-man striking pair, so it'll be interesting to see how they contend with 5 strikers in two spots. With Pepi costing so much, you have to think that Gregoritsch or Hahn will get benched.Augsburg Formations and Results by Competition
Click here to see the formations most used by Augsburg, along with results for each formation, players in each position and more
- Andre Hahn (14, 2) 2 goals (2.25 xG) in 1135 minutes
I don't think Pepi is going to change anything for Augsburg. I personally don't think it's a great move for him.
He's moving to a side fighting to stay up, which is not exactly a happy go lucky environment. And they are in that situation for a reason. To Shwafta's point, the defense in the bundesliga isn't top notch, so why haven't augsburg scored goals? their current xG is ~20 and they've scored 17 actual goals after 17 games. Doesn't seem like they are under performing their xG by that much, which means they probably don't create a whole lot of chances.
Pepi isn't a take control of the game kind of striker. He's a poacher and fairly decent in the air. He'll need service and a playmaker to connect with. At his age, he'd be better off going to a better club and maybe not play as many actual minutes, but get the mentoring and guidance from top quality players and coaches. Clearly, big clubs in the bundesliga don't have a problem playing young talent. if you're good enough you're good enough.
I hope I am wrong and he tears things up and makes a name for himself. But I don't think it will be easy.
He's moving to a side fighting to stay up, which is not exactly a happy go lucky environment. And they are in that situation for a reason. To Shwafta's point, the defense in the bundesliga isn't top notch, so why haven't augsburg scored goals? their current xG is ~20 and they've scored 17 actual goals after 17 games. Doesn't seem like they are under performing their xG by that much, which means they probably don't create a whole lot of chances.
Pepi isn't a take control of the game kind of striker. He's a poacher and fairly decent in the air. He'll need service and a playmaker to connect with. At his age, he'd be better off going to a better club and maybe not play as many actual minutes, but get the mentoring and guidance from top quality players and coaches. Clearly, big clubs in the bundesliga don't have a problem playing young talent. if you're good enough you're good enough.
I hope I am wrong and he tears things up and makes a name for himself. But I don't think it will be easy.
Hence why I asked in the original post if we think he's going to struggle.
M moogoo makes a good point, and I think that it could easily affect his scoring output. It could also just be that their strikers are bad so their xG is ~20 because their strikers just don't know what they're doing. There's no telling if Pepi will follow that route or not.
I do, however, think that Pepi is built for a Bundesliga striker, and so it will be very interesting to track Augsburg over the next six months as they battle for relegation... or turn it around randomly.
Heh. Dallas is?
Dallas is in MLS, with no relegation. While it may be struggling, there's every opportunity for the club to rebuild and do better next season without losing all the money from being relegated. Dallas could turn things around in 2022 (unlikely but possible) and win MLS cup. Very different scenarios.
I am surprised that he went to a better league and at a higher price than Dike.
Pepi is a promising young player, but still a project - not someone who turns a Bundlesliga team around.
While Dike is also still a project, he at least has his performance in the Championship last season as proof of concept. He scored 9 goals in 19 games and led Barnsley from 13th place to 5th while twice being named Player of the Month. If they had gotten through the promotional playoff, Barnsley almost certainly would have triggered the $20 million buyout.
Pepi is a promising young player, but still a project - not someone who turns a Bundlesliga team around.
While Dike is also still a project, he at least has his performance in the Championship last season as proof of concept. He scored 9 goals in 19 games and led Barnsley from 13th place to 5th while twice being named Player of the Month. If they had gotten through the promotional playoff, Barnsley almost certainly would have triggered the $20 million buyout.
I know Bundesliga is much higher competition than Championship, but remember that the Championship and West Brom are possibly half a year away from premier league.
It's gotta be the age difference, 21.5 vs 19 (Pepi turns 19 in 5 days). Personally, I don't think 2.5 years younger is worth the difference in the transfer fees. Especially when the "old guy" is still only 21.
Schwallacus
Shwafta (or others with knowledge about German soccer), what's the reputation and level of 2. Bundesliga? How would relegation affect Pepi's trajectory? Would it be an opportunity for him to prove himself in a more manageable division (like Dike or Harrison in the Championship)? Or is the division not comparable reputation-wise to the Championship and therefore defeating some of the purpose of his wanting to play on a bigger stage, etc.?
I'd say it is similar to the Championship but would be a step down for Pepi's trajectory. Especially since he will have half a season of taking on BuLi defenders, BuLi 2 will be less of challenge. However, if he struggles vs. BuLi defenders, being in the BuLi 2 could potentially give him more time to acclimatize himself in a new country and give him confidence as well heading into the WC, which can be underrated.
The striker position is interesting in that it has a lot to do with confidence, especially compared to other positions. As we've seen with other US strikers in Germany (as mentioned by
mgarbowski), they haven't performed well in BuLi and then trailed off, never reaching that level of play/confidence again. The next year or two will show if Pepi was either a) riding the confidence train hard or b) is an actual goal poaching striker that can be relied upon for another few WC cycles.Matt Doyle had a take on Twitter that being relegated to BL2 wouldn't be the worst thing for Pepi and maybe shouldn't be viewed as terrible for his development. I wanna say that was caveated with a "as long as they get promoted that season" but can't quite remember and don't feel like finding it at the moment.I'd say it is similar to the Championship but would be a step down for Pepi's trajectory. Especially since he will have half a season of taking on BuLi defenders, BuLi 2 will be less of challenge. However, if he struggles vs. BuLi defenders, being in the BuLi 2 could potentially give him more time to acclimatize himself in a new country and give him confidence as well heading into the WC, which can be underrated.
The striker position is interesting in that it has a lot to do with confidence, especially compared to other positions. As we've seen with other US strikers in Germany (as mentioned by
