By The Numbers: What We've Done, What Must We Do

[LionNYC]

To add to the depression we're 0-2-4 against Western Conference teams. And we haven't even played the best three (LA, Vancouver, Dallas) yet. It's unfortunate we played Seattle then they had Obi and Duece.

Looking back, you just have to think what Kreis said that summer transfers turn out bad. This may not be the case (Pirlo), but if everyone was here from the start we should have gotten...
- 6 points instead of 1 versus Chicago
- 7/9 points instead of 4 against Philly
- 3 points instead of 1 against Colorado

 

[Mikeylito]

Damn that's a lot of home games.

Yeah, thanks to their renovation.
I don't particularly care for their home opponents.
Orlando, Colorado, Chicago and Philadelphia can almost be counted in the win column already.

The only thing working in City's favor is whatever crisis of confidence Altidore is going through. It allows defenses to focus in on Giovinco and turn possible wins into losses.

It just getting too bloody exciting.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

Despite the great win, this was not a great week.

New England's win pushed them into 4th place on the PPG Table, and now idle Montreal is in sixth. The projected Sixth Place PPG is up to 45. For the last few weeks it has been moving in the wrong direction. I don't expect it to go higher than this and it might yet slip but that's where we are now.
View attachment 3234
Moving ahead of Orlando - slightly - is nice, but the harder task still lies ahead, and we still have to stay ahead of ORL, and actually catch them on the points table where we are one behind. We are also just one point behind Montreal in actual points, but they have 3 games in hand. Unless they lose them all, we have a ways to go.

There were discussions in this and other threads about Montreal’s schedule. They have some easy games but also have a lot of midweek games. On the easy side they have 1 Home game against Philly, TWO home against Chicago, and away at Colorado.
In terms of playing a lot of games with little rest the busiest part of their schedule starts Saturday Sept 12, when they play the Galaxy in LA. Then on Wednesday Sept 16 they are in San Jose; then Saturday Sept 19 home against New England, and Tuesday Sept 22 they are Home to Chicago.
Their second busy stretch starts Saturday Oct 3 at Orlando; Wednesday Oct 7 at NJRB; then Saturday Oct 10 in Colorado.
IMO they could have trouble there but I would not count on it by any means.

For us, all of the following are Win-Lose-Draw
5-2-3 45 points
5-3-2 44 points
4-2-4 43 points
5-4-1 43 points
4-3-3 42 points
4-4-2 41 points

The lower point totals will become irrelevant soon if other games don't start going our way.



The only sure way to make the teams ahead of us lose is to beat them ourselves. Those are exactly our most important games. Maybe add in Toronto, but they have a heavy home-weighted schedule remaining. We don't play Montreal any more. We play Columbus 2 of the next 3 games. We have played the same number of games and they have a 7-point lead. If we beat them twice we cut that to one. The bad news is that in-between we're playing at LA while Columbus is home to SKC. SKC is no party but they have a +13 HGD and -1 RGD so Columbus has a much better shot than they might have.
Columbus's other games are
HOME: Dallas, Portland, DC
AWAY: Philadelphia, DC, RB, Toronto.

Toronto's remaining games
HOME: ORL, Montreal, New England, Colorado, Chicago, Philadelphia, RB, Columbus
AWAY: Seattle, NYCFC, Montreal
Damn that's a lot of home games.

Toronto has a lot of pressure, so that helps. That said, I think they make it. I think NE makes it, too. JJJ is back for them, and he's the motor of that team (despite this evidence, we make FFF our first (fake) signing against the wishes of anyone who knew the league at all), so I don't see them falling. I really think we need an MTL collapse, and/or the same from Crew & or Toronto.

I won't give up as a fan, but as a rational person who considers himself an objectivist? Yeah. From that point of view I'd call betting on us dead money.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

To add to the depression we're 0-2-4 against Western Conference teams. And we haven't even played the best three (LA, Vancouver, Dallas) yet. It's unfortunate we played Seattle then they had Obi and Duece.

Looking back, you just have to think what Kreis said that summer transfers turn out bad. This may not be the case (Pirlo), but if everyone was here from the start we should have gotten...
- 6 points instead of 1 versus Chicago
- 7/9 points instead of 4 against Philly
- 3 points instead of 1 against Colorado

Colorado represents 2015 Kreis at his finest. He shit the bed, totally.

He apparently only reads Taylor Twellman tweets and commentary rather than performance. It's ridiculous.

 

[Mikeylito]

Actually, displacing New England is a far more likely scenario than a Montreal collapse. If we keep pace with New England, we need only win our game-in-hand to set up our season-ending tilt as a last resort to surpass the Revs. (It's also a home game; so it should be to our advantage.)

Montreal has too many remaining games to expect a total collapse.
They could draw five of their remaining 13 matches and be even assuming we didn't lose another match in the intervening time.

I think we should focus on our remaining games with Columbus (2), Dallas, Toronto, San Jose, Orlando and New England. The matches with Galaxy, Vancouver and DC United I foresee as losses although I could easily be wrong. If not, however, that puts our MaxP at 48 which is around the level where Mgarbowski thinks we need to land to make the playoffs.

 

[canchon]

Looking at where they are now and who's ahead of them, it is a long, long uphill battle to climb. NYCFC has to be in the position to outperform / catch up to the six teams above them - and they have to basically do it on the road since there are only 4 home games left at YS.

Who would you bet NYCFC to displace from the playoff picture?

Start with those that NYCFC isn't catching:
1. DCU - Too far ahead in points. Would need to basically lose every one of their last eight games to not make the playoffs.
2. RBNY - Too far ahead in points - form-wise, are probably the favorite to win the East

4 slots left: Columbus, Toronto FC, NER, Montreal.

I would cross off Toronto (too many home games left, too much talent to completely go into the toilet - the MLS MVP is on their roster) and Montreal (too many games in hand...they just need to not lose them all). That leaves Columbus and NER. Keep in mind NER is last year's MLS cup finalist - lots of talent there - and Jermaine Jones just came back - so I wouldn't bet them to collapse either.

That leaves Columbus. Pick up 3 points on Wednesday against Columbus or it's going to be really tough. NYCFC has to start winning (not picking up a point) on the road to have any shot. And considering that LA looms after Columbus - google LA Galaxy's goal differential at home, will give you nightmares - you need 3 at Columbus.

 

[mgarbowski]

Looking at where they are now and who's ahead of them, it is a long, long uphill battle to climb. NYCFC has to be in the position to outperform / catch up to the six teams above them - and they have to basically do it on the road since there are only 4 home games left at YS.

Who would you bet NYCFC to displace from the playoff picture?

Start with those that NYCFC isn't catching:
1. DCU - Too far ahead in points. Would need to basically lose every one of their last eight games to not make the playoffs.
2. RBNJ - Too far ahead in points - form-wise, are probably the favorite to win the East

4 slots left: Columbus, Toronto FC, NER, Montreal.

I would cross off Toronto (too many home games left, too much talent to completely go into the toilet - the MLS MVP is on their roster) and Montreal (too many games in hand...they just need to not lose them all). That leaves Columbus and NER. Keep in mind NER is last year's MLS cup finalist - lots of talent there - and Jermaine Jones just came back - so I wouldn't bet them to collapse either.

That leaves Columbus. Pick up 3 points on Wednesday against Columbus or it's going to be really tough. NYCFC has to start winning (not picking up a point) on the road to have any shot. And considering that LA looms after Columbus - google LA Galaxy's goal differential at home, will give you nightmares - you need 3 at Columbus.

Sound logic. I'll just add that collapses are often inexplicable, so we could get lucky with one of the other 3 (You're right that DC and RB are out of the question barring a meteor hitting the team bus). No matter what, NYC has to take care of its own business.

 

[SayWhat44]

Orlando has been playing awful as of late and it's good timing for us. These next couple of weeks are obviously huge for us. #3points PS. Check out this fantastic Disney gif. It makes me smile so so much.

 

[SayWhat44]

https://twitter.com/x/status/633714292974559232

Orlando will also lose a lot of their key players including Kaka in September due to National team call ups.

 

[LionNYC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/633714292974559232

Orlando will also lose a lot of their key players including Kaka in September due to National team call ups.

So it's USL Orlando City?

 

[SayWhat44]

So it's USL Orlando City?

Yup looks like it.

 

[Paul]

According to sportsclubstats.com we have a 24.7% chance right now of making the playoffs. Not very good. If we lose both our games this week (not taking any other MLS matches into account) we will be down to 11.5% and basically out of the playoff race. If we win both our games this week (not taking any other MLS matches into account) we will be up to 60.9% and will be more likely than not at that point to make the playoffs.

So, this is a huge week for us and Sunday's game against LA Galaxy is more important than some people are saying. 3 pts is 3 pts no matter who it comes against and right now beggars can't be choosers. After shitting the bed against Philly & Chicago we have to take points from the good teams and there's no other choice right now -- all we have left on the schedule are good teams!

Just for the hell of it, I also tallied up our chances to make the playoffs if everything goes against us this week (down to 5.7%) and if everything goes for us this week (up to 67.2%). So after this week we are looking at anywhere from 5.7% to 67.2% chance of making the playoffs. Of course, everything could split right down the middle and we find ourselves right back at approximately 25% this time next week.

 

[LionNYC]

According to sportsclubstats.com we have a 24.7% chance right now of making the playoffs. Not very good. If we lose both our games this week (not taking any other MLS matches into account) we will be down to 11.5% and basically out of the playoff race. If we win both our games this week (not taking any other MLS matches into account) we will be up to 60.9% and will be more likely than not at that point to make the playoffs.

So, this is a huge week for us and Sunday's game against LA Galaxy is more important than some people are saying. 3 pts is 3 pts no matter who it comes against and right now beggars can't be choosers. After shitting the bed against Philly & Chicago we have to take points from the good teams and there's no other choice right now -- all we have left on the schedule are good teams!

Just for the hell of it, I also tallied up our chances to make the playoffs if everything goes against us this week (down to 5.7%) and if everything goes for us this week (up to 67.2%). So after this week we are looking at anywhere from 5.7% to 67.2% chance of making the playoffs. Of course, everything could split right down the middle and we find ourselves right back at approximately 25% this time next week.

I found on playoffstatus.com that we do control our own destiny to the 6th seed, however we must win all our remaining 10 games. We're going to need to win a lot of get help to get into the playoffs. It's going to be a nerve-wrecking fall.

 

[FootyLovin]

I found on playoffstatus.com that we do control our own destiny to the 6th seed, however we must win all our remaining 10 games. We're going to need to win a lot of get help to get into the playoffs. It's going to be a nerve-wrecking fall.

That just means that wins against Columbus (x2) and NER put us within a point of each if we win the rest of our games both of them cannot win all of their remaining games since they play each other. So at least one of them will drop at least 2 points.

Of course they and we will all drop other points. Who knows when?

 

[FootyLovin]

Sound logic. I'll just add that collapses are often inexplicable, so we could get lucky with one of the other 3 (You're right that DC and RB are out of the question barring a meteor hitting the team bus). No matter what, NYC has to take care of its own business.

Soccer defies logic.

Who would have predicted that

• After week 2 we would be top of the table
• We'd go winless our next 11
• We'd win 4 of our Poku next six
• We'd then stop winning against easier opponents
• Lose to Montreal at home
• Beat DC

Someone please explain. Using logic.

 

[Seth]

Soccer defies logic.

Someone please explain. Using logic.

Now you're just trolling us, man.

 

[FootyLovin]

Now you're just trolling us, man.

LOL. First I've been accused of that.

 

[LionNYC]

Soccer defies logic.

Who would have predicted that

• After week 2 we would be top of the table
• We'd go winless our next 11
• We'd win 4 of our Poku next six
• We'd then stop winning against easier opponents
• Lose to Montreal at home
• Beat DC

Someone please explain. Using logic.

Typical (New York) City. Here's a try at logical explanation...
- We came into the league with huge expectations. Villa. Lampard(?). Mix. City Football Group. New York Yankees. NEW YORK CITY.
- We get 4 points in three games including a win in our first home match, we start thinking we are actually this good. We're the best fucking team in MLS. Ride the magic dragon.
- The ballon bursts. Our defense is trash (we were starting Josh Williams, Lord Kwame, and god who else knows back then). Kreis hasn't figured out a fix yet, teams keep exploiting us. Expansion problems set in.
- Kreis finally gives this guy Poku, who already is a crowd favorite (at least in my opinion, I've meet leading the Poku party since he first got minutes) a real shot and we win. He's the Yaya Toure of MLS and even better consider who he is playing against.
- Jason Kreis doesn't want to go so good in year one setting too high expectations so he benches Poku. He still wants a job after three years.
- Frank Lampard arrives, CFG needs to him to finally play in New York, he's not fit, he's not ready, we lose to Montreal. Poku cannot play with Lampard. Have the two ever been on the field together and done well?
- No Lampard, Yes Poku. Even the giants can fall on any given day. We wanted this more, DC's offense has also been absent recently with only 6 shots for and their defense has allowed 42 against in the past two matches.
- Who knows what happens the rest of the season? Will Lampard play even though it may not be the best decision for the team? Will Poku be a consistent starter? Will there be an additional injuries?
- What the fuck will our team look like next year? Grabavoy, Wingert, Nemec? Calle, Iraola, Angelino, Facey? We might not even have an 11 and bench after December...

 

[canchon]

Soccer defies logic.

Who would have predicted that

• After week 2 we would be top of the table
• We'd go winless our next 11
• We'd win 4 of our Poku next six
• We'd then stop winning against easier opponents
• Lose to Montreal at home
• Beat DC

Someone please explain. Using logic.

Welcome to MLS. Parity-driven league where there are no super-teams that consistently win like a Real Madrid or a Chelsea. Teams are streaky and many times the "worst" beats the "best" on an off-night. The league is just that close.

The Revs last year went something like 8 or 9 in the middle of the season without winning a game and then ran all the way to the cup finals. It's a wacky league.

 

[Gene]

Wouldn't have it any other way.......