Save yourself the time and just wait until next season. No playoffs this year. We're just playing for chemistry at this point.
By The Numbers: What We've Done, What Must We Do
- Thread starter mgarbowski
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Save yourself the time and just wait until next season. No playoffs this year. We're just playing for chemistry at this point.
I know. The post only take 5-10 minutes to put together so I'll keep it up until eliminated I guess.
Why do i feel like this is appropriate right now .......
Playoffs are basically out of the question at this point. Just hoping the team finishes strong and can start on solid footing next year. It's only the first season, we're here for the long haul.
Why do people keep saying the playoffs are out of the question? We're only 4 points out from a playoff spot. Sure, Impact have 2 games in hand, but they suck just as much as we do. That last spot is up for grabs.
I don't see what it hurts to target the playoffs. Who the hell starts a season aiming for bottom of the table?
It's not looking good, but we have 11 games. Right now, we need 21 points. Honestly, I just want us to stay mathematically alive as long as possible. If we sneak out 9 points in the next 5, it will make for a fun end to the season. Anyway, here's my best case for how we can get there. Yes, it is highly unlikely (numbers say it's about a 10-15% chance). Like I said, I want us to stay in contention. I'd rather not witness a bunch of friendly type efforts and lineups come our final clashes of the year with DCU, ORL and NER.
W 24 D.C. United (13-7-5) Home Thu Aug 13, 7:00 pm
W 25 Crew (9-8-7) Away Wed Aug 19, 7:30 pm
L 25 Galaxy (11-7-7) Away Sun Aug 23, 3:00 pm
W 26 Crew (9-8-7) Home Sat Aug 29, 4:00 pm
L 28 FC Dallas (11-6-5) Away Sat Sep 12, 8:30 pm
W 29 Toronto FC (9-9-4) Home Wed Sep 16, 7:00 pm
W29 Earthquakes (7-10-5) Home Sat Sep 19, 7:00 pm
L 30 Whitecaps (13-8-3) Away Sat Sep 26, 10:00 pm
L 31 D.C. United (13-7-5) Away Fri Oct 2, 7:00 pm
W 33 Orlando City SC (7-10-7) Away Fri Oct 16, 7:00 pm
W 34 Revolution (8-9-7) Home Sun Oct 25, 5:00 pm
It's not looking good, but we have 11 games. Right now, we need 21 points. Honestly, I just want us to stay mathematically alive as long as possible. If we sneak out 9 points in the next 5, it will make for a fun end to the season. Anyway, here's my best case for how we can get there. Yes, it is highly unlikely (numbers say it's about a 10-15% chance). Like I said, I want us to stay in contention. I'd rather not witness a bunch of friendly type efforts and lineups come our final clashes of the year with DCU, ORL and NER.
W 24 D.C. United (13-7-5) Home Thu Aug 13, 7:00 pm
W 25 Crew (9-8-7) Away Wed Aug 19, 7:30 pm
L 25 Galaxy (11-7-7) Away Sun Aug 23, 3:00 pm
W 26 Crew (9-8-7) Home Sat Aug 29, 4:00 pm
L 28 FC Dallas (11-6-5) Away Sat Sep 12, 8:30 pm
W 29 Toronto FC (9-9-4) Home Wed Sep 16, 7:00 pm
W29 Earthquakes (7-10-5) Home Sat Sep 19, 7:00 pm
L 30 Whitecaps (13-8-3) Away Sat Sep 26, 10:00 pm
L 31 D.C. United (13-7-5) Away Fri Oct 2, 7:00 pm
W 33 Orlando City SC (7-10-7) Away Fri Oct 16, 7:00 pm
W 34 Revolution (8-9-7) Home Sun Oct 25, 5:00 pm
The PPG says Montreal does not suck nearly as much as we do. But let's assume they drop from their 1.33 PPG to date and get 1 PPG here to the end of the season. They have 28 points and 13 games to go which nets them 41 points at year end. We need 5-3-3 or something like it to get 42 points. We have road games against the best 4 teams in the league (DC, Dallas, LA and Vancouver). If we win two and lose 2, which would be a major accomplishment, we can probably lose only one other game of our remaining 7. And that better not be in Orlando. Because we have to climb over them too. And again, this requires that Montreal play significantly worse than they have to date.
And they still have 1 Home game against Philly, TWO home against Chicago, and away at Colorado. They have some tough ones too, but if they get 8 points in those 4 games, which is a very fair bet, they need to go 1-6-2 in the other games to sink low enough. That's a major collapse.
Sure, why not? As dismal as I get when running the numbers I see no reason not to hope for the best. I wouldn't even be shocked if we stole a win among one of our 4 killer road games. But 5-0-0 at home and sweeping the Crew is a tough order.
Naw. Here's how it happens.
Home Aug 13 v DC - T
Away Aug 19 v COL - L
Away Aug 23 v LA - L
Home Aug 29 v COL - T
That's how many games it takes for the new players to really start to click. Then ...
Away Sep 12 v DAL - W
Home Sep 16 v TFC - W
Home Sep 19 v SJ - W
Away Sep 26 v VAN - W
Away Oct 2 v DC - W
Away Oct 16 v ORL - W
Home Oct 25 v NE - W
And we celebrate!
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Seriously, though, I get that the Impact are in a better position, and mathematically it's going to be tough, but they're still have a shot at making the playoffs. Impact do have a better PPG, but they still suck chunks and can easily go into meltdown mode, and NYCFC can wake the fuck up and win some games. It ain't ova.
Well, the issue is we need both Montreal and another team to melt down to "sneak" in. Because of that, I think we have to target the Crew or NER.
Seriously, though, I get that the Impact are in a better position, and mathematically it's going to be tough, but they're still have a shot at making the playoffs. Impact do have a better PPG, but they still suck chunks and can easily go into meltdown mode, and NYCFC can wake the fuck up and win some games. It ain't ova.
I actually think Montreal makes it in. They may suck, but they play with some guts.
Seriously, though, I get that the Impact are in a better position, and mathematically it's going to be tough, but they're still have a shot at making the playoffs. Impact do have a better PPG, but they still suck chunks and can easily go into meltdown mode, and NYCFC can wake the fuck up and win some games. It ain't ova.
Even if we're mathematically eliminated on the last day of the season, if there is a massive attack on the US/Canada and there are only 6 teams left in the eastern conference we can make the playoffs. Unfortunately in this scenario, we would be attacked. Columbus and New Jersey would probably be safe.
We need to pass ORL and NE. That's our most likely path with the clincher in our last game of the season at home against NE. Couldn't write a better script.
Win against DC = a springboard to a run that will at least keep things interesting. Not sure why but I have a feeling Lampard will have a monster game, and Pirlo plays like Pirlo bringing back some good feelings and keeping this thread relevant. Win one for the thread boys!
Seriously, though, I get that the Impact are in a better position, and mathematically it's going to be tough, but they're still have a shot at making the playoffs. Impact do have a better PPG, but they still suck chunks and can easily go into meltdown mode, and NYCFC can wake the fuck up and win some games. It ain't ova.
There's always a chance until there isn't. But I agree with
Midas Mulligan and
FootyLovin - our best chances are to overcome Orlando and New England, and maybe Columbus but only if we pull the double.
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Columbus has Kamara and Finlay playing out of their minds. NE and orlando are the ones to focus on imo.View attachment 3217
There's always a chance until there isn't. But I agree with
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