MLS Cup Playoffs 2016

[Ulrich]

There are four matches on Sunday with (Goals scored in first leg match up)...

2 PM, ESPN: LA Galaxy (1) at Colorado (0)

4 PM, ESPN: Montreal (1) at Red Bulls (0)

6:30 PM, FS1: Toronto (2) at NYCFC (0)

9 PM, FS1: Seattle (3) at Dallas (o)

It's pretty ridiculous that the higher seeds lost every game, without scoring a goal, and all face a mountain to get to the next round. If this is any indication, there's no real advantage for the higher seed, save for no midweek knock-out game & getting overtime at home (if warranted). That just doesn't seem like enough advantage. I'd be all for the games to be a one-off at the higher-seeds' stadiums, so if you barely squeak into the playoffs, tough luck, but you don't get any home games (baring a crazy set of circumstances). The playoffs would move faster/end earlier which could allow more regular season matches. And really, it's crazy to think that the Cup champ will be from two #3 seeds and two #4 seeds - it's as if the regular season didn't even matter.

If nothing else, the order of Home/Away should be flipped so that if needed, the Higher seed will be in a position to throw caution to the wind if an away goal is needed in the second game. That tangible advantage is worth more than being in a friendly environment the second leg.

 

[SportingNYC]

I think waaay too many teams make the playoffs. It's an American thing. More games = more $$$.

Just look at the NHL - play 82 games to eliminate 14 of 30 teams, less than half!

 

[Falastur]

I think waaay too many teams make the playoffs. It's an American thing. More games = more $$$.

Just look at the NHL - play 82 games to eliminate 14 of 30 teams, less than half!

On the plus side, the more teams that join the league, the smaller the percentage of teams that qualify for the playoffs even without the format changing.

 

[FootyLovin]

It's pretty ridiculous that the higher seeds lost every game, without scoring a goal, and all face a mountain to get to the next round. If this is any indication, there's no real advantage for the higher seed, save for no midweek knock-out game & getting overtime at home (if warranted). That just doesn't seem like enough advantage. I'd be all for the games to be a one-off at the higher-seeds' stadiums, so if you barely squeak into the playoffs, tough luck, but you don't get any home games (baring a crazy set of circumstances).

The home and home works well enough in other tournaments. Don't judge based just on this year, and especially not without waiting to see what happens tomorrow. Even if tomorrow all 4 lower seeds go through, that wouldn't disprove the model without looking at the history. Here's how many higher seeds advanced through the conference semifinals over the last 7 years:

• 2015 - 75%
• 2014 - 75%
• 2013 - 75%
• 2012 - 25%
• 2011 - 75%
• 2010 - 25%
• 2009 - 75%
• 2008 - 50%
• Overall - 68%

68% higher seed win percentage is advantage without overwhelming advantage. Seems like a good system.

 

[Ulrich]

The home and home works well enough in other tournaments. Don't judge based just on this year, and especially not without waiting to see what happens tomorrow. Even if tomorrow all 4 lower seeds go through, that wouldn't disprove the model without looking at the history. Here's how many higher seeds advanced through the conference semifinals over the last 7 years:

• 2015 - 75%
• 2014 - 75%
• 2013 - 75%
• 2012 - 25%
• 2011 - 75%
• 2010 - 25%
• 2009 - 75%
• 2008 - 50%
• Overall - 68%

68% higher seed win percentage is advantage without overwhelming advantage. Seems like a good system.

But even so, 3/5th of the time advancing isn't exactly a huge advantage at all. Those stats are in a vacuum. How many of the higher seed teams that didn't advance because they lost out due to away goals? That's my biggest beef with it. The higher seed should be in the position to throw the kitchen sink at getting a single away goal to break the deficit rather than potentially 2(min) goals to overtake the opponent's AG.

 

[FootyLovin]

But even so, 3/5th of the time advancing isn't exactly a huge advantage at all. Those stats are in a vacuum. How many of the higher seed teams that didn't advance because they lost out due to away goals? That's my biggest beef with it. The higher seed should be in the position to throw the kitchen sink at getting a single away goal to break the deficit rather than potentially 2(min) goals to overtake the opponent's AG.

I don't see where you get 3/5 from. Almost 70% of the time the higher seed advances. How much better odds do you want for the higher seed?

 

[Ulrich]

I don't see where you get 3/5 from. Almost 70% of the time the higher seed advances. How much better odds do you want for the higher seed?

Because it's closer to 3/5 than 4/5 and if we're going to round to 7/10 then we should stick with 19/28. But digging deeper, it should be more than the 68% because at worst the 1/2 seeds are playing the 3/4 seeds but many times they're also playing up to the 5/6 seeds, so the success rate should be higher than it is.

 

[Gotham Gator]

There are four matches on Sunday with (Goals scored in first leg match up)...

2 PM, ESPN: LA Galaxy (1) at Colorado (0)

4 PM, ESPN: Montreal (1) at Red Bulls (0)

6:30 PM, FS1: Toronto (2) at NYCFC (0)

9 PM, FS1: Seattle (3) at Dallas (o)

Okay, all the higher seeds are down with zero away goals. Which of them, if any, will advance?

 

[Gotham Gator]

Okay, all the higher seeds are down with zero away goals. Which of them, if any, will advance?

I am going to say the Red Fools advance. I think Colorado has a decent shot, but only if they shut out LA, because I don't see them getting 3 goals on LA's defense. We are only about 15-20% to get through. Dallas is toast.

 

[adam]

Okay, all the higher seeds are down with zero away goals. Which of them, if any, will advance?

I can see NJ doing it. Because that's our luck. And hope by some miracle we can push in into penalties, because I don't see us scoring 4 today. I think both West home teams are going out. Which is also bad luck for us, since that hampers our CCL chances.

 

[Ulrich]

I can see NJ doing it. Because that's our luck. And hope by some miracle we can push in into penalties, because I don't see us scoring 4 today. I think both West home teams are going out. Which is also bad luck for us, since that hampers our CCL chances.

I've had a funny premonition this week that everything clicks for us.... 4 is not out of the question... for either us scoring or giving up

 

[FootyLovin]

I don't see us scoring 4 today.

I think we win 4-1, but not how you think.

We go 2-0 in regulation. Then craziness ensues with a see-saw 2-1 additional scoreline in extra time to end it at 4-1. No PKs.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

I think we win 4-1, but not how you think.

We go 2-0 in regulation. Then craziness ensues with a see-saw 2-1 additional scoreline in extra time to end it at 4-1. No PKs.

What time did you start drinking? I'm starting now with Apple Cider Sangria, so I hope I'm in the place you are soon.

 

[21Architect]

Tim Howard BEAST

 

[Gotham Gator]

Montreal up a man for over 10 minutes as Sasha Klejstan has blood coming out of his nose, out of his mouth, out of his... whatever. But the Impact totally unable to capitalize - didn't even sense they put NJ under much pressure.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

No one mentioned Bush saved a pen? What the hell are you guys doing? I was on the train. That's my excuse.

 

[QuigrNYCFC]

Montreal up a man for over 10 minutes as Sasha Klejstan has blood coming out of his nose, out of his mouth, out of his... whatever. But the Impact totally unable to capitalize - didn't even sense they put NJ under much pressure.

Montreal is interested in defending. Bunker bunker bunker.

 

[Keith Putnam]

Now that they've eliminated us, I'm calling TOR to win it all.

 

[Ulrich]

So 3of4 lower seeds won. And it would have been 4of4 if not for amazing goalkeeping of Howard. There just isn't enough of an advantage given to the higher seeds. This isn't so much about NYCFC getting tossed, but for Dallas to not advance as clearly the best & most complete team in the league, and also even RB, whom I hate with a passion, there's something fundamentally wrong with the setup. The best teams really aren't vying for the championship - entertaining ones, yes, on a hot streak, yes, but not the best in the league.

 

[adam]

So 3of4 lower seeds won. And it would have been 4of4 if not for amazing goalkeeping of Howard. There just isn't enough of an advantage given to the higher seeds. This isn't so much about NYCFC getting tossed, but for Dallas to not advance as clearly the best & most complete team in the league, and also even RB, whom I hate with a passion, there's something fundamentally wrong with the setup. The best teams really aren't vying for the championship - entertaining ones, yes, on a hot streak, yes, but not the best in the league.

Dallas is an outlier with their injury to Diaz. That really messed them up and you could see it from the moment it happened. Add that to the loss of Castillo earlier in the season and they were not the same team that looked unbeatable towards the middle of the season.