MLS - May 18 - Red Bulls (Home - CF)

It's hard to accept Jovan's so young and needs time when he was our biggest signing of the offseason and our second-largest transfer fee of all time. Many other teams found u22 players who have come in and contributed from day one even with short training camps. I don't hold it against Jovan, he's young and talented and will be great once he finds his footing (and then he will be immediately sold). I still think it was a terrible signing by Lee and CFG. Jones and Wolf are providing a lot of cover for Lee right now for how little his big-money signings have contributed to date. All the young guys look talented and I think they will eventually be good for us but given our recent form putting a chunk of that big $ instead towards a proven star level #9 would have us looking like title contenders right now.
I understand the young guys with sell on potential strategy but wish we could once in awhile still go after someone like Benteke or Giroud for them to learn from .
 
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It's hard to accept Jovan's so young and needs time when he was our biggest signing of the offseason and our second-largest transfer fee of all time. Many other teams found u22 players who have come in and contributed from day one even with short training camps. I don't hold it against Jovan, he's young and talented and will be great once he finds his footing (and then he will be immediately sold). I still think it was a terrible signing by Lee and CFG. Jones and Wolf are providing a lot of cover for Lee right now for how little his big-money signings have contributed to date. All the young guys look talented and I think they will eventually be good for us but given our recent form putting a chunk of that big $ instead towards a proven star level #9 would have us looking like title contenders right now.

If Jovan, Julian, Hannes, and Agustin are part of a team that wins MLS Cup (or seriously challenges) in the next 2-3 years, it will have been the right decision. Rushing the rebuild could have set us back even more -- I'm OK with being patient, building it properly, and creating a core of players who will be here for the next 4 years and lead us to our next star.
 
I understand the young guys with sell on potential strategy but wish we could once in awhile still go after someone like Benteke or Giroud for them to learn from .

We have those guys though -- Maxi and Hannes are both experienced players in the attack.

I completely understand why we want the excitement of a big-name player, but we've also seen those signings don't work as often as you'd expect. Look at DC with Benteke, or Galaxy with Zlatan ...
 
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We have those guys though -- Maxi and Hannes are both experienced players in the attack.

I completely understand why we want the excitement of a big-name player, but we've also seen those signings don't work as often as you'd expect. Look at DC with Benteke, or Galaxy with Zlatan ...
You need to have the right guys around them . You can’t just have the big name and bunch of bums . If we had one of those guys at 9 to reliably finish off the chances created we’d be unbelievably good right now instead of just good .
 
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If Jovan, Julian, Hannes, and Agustin are part of a team that wins MLS Cup (or seriously challenges) in the next 2-3 years, it will have been the right decision. Rushing the rebuild could have set us back even more -- I'm OK with being patient, building it properly, and creating a core of players who will be here for the next 4 years and lead us to our next star.

There is no such thing as rushing a rebuild in the MLS. Teams miss the playoffs and win the cup the next season. Atlanta won a cup the 2nd season after the team was created. LAFC won the supporter's shield and set the record for most points in a season in their second season of existence. No team in MLS history has won based on a multi-year rebuild that started with a bunch of super-expensive 18-year-olds. Slow rebuilds happen in other US sports because there is value in daft picks and rookie contracts. None of that matters in the MLS. The only rebuild justification you could have is that players need time to get used to playing with each other but even then the spine of our team Martins, Sands, Gray, Otoole, Parks, and Santi already have years of playing time together.

What are the benefits of a slow rebuild in MLS given the current salary cap rules and roster mechanisms? What teams have undergone 3-4 year development processes as a road map to MLS success? This whole rebuild thing is just unsupported narrative concepts being applied from other sports to justify CFGs actions with a nice-sounding story.
 
There is no such thing as rushing a rebuild in the MLS. Teams miss the playoffs and win the cup the next season. Atlanta won a cup the 2nd season after the team was created. LAFC won the supporter's shield and set the record for most points in a season in their second season of existence. No team in MLS history has won based on a multi-year rebuild that started with a bunch of super-expensive 18-year-olds. Slow rebuilds happen in other US sports because there is value in daft picks and rookie contracts. None of that matters in the MLS. The only rebuild justification you could have is that players need time to get used to playing with each other but even then the spine of our team Martins, Sands, Gray, Otoole, Parks, and Santi already have years of playing time together.

What are the benefits of a slow rebuild in MLS given the current salary cap rules and roster mechanisms? What teams have undergone 3-4 year development processes as a road map to MLS success? This whole rebuild thing is just unsupported narrative concepts being applied from other sports to justify CFGs actions with a nice-sounding story.

That's a very fair point. I do wonder if we are at the forefront of what this league is becoming. Maybe we're an extreme case, but this is becoming a selling league. It's becoming a developmental league for young players - that's the next progression of how MLS takes a step towards where it wants to go. Maybe we're on the extreme side and should have gone with guys in the 21-22 range instead of 18-19, or maybe Jovan and Agu will be the bedrocks of the next team to win a championship.

My goal for this season is to be top-4 in the East, get 2 of 3 at home in that three-game series first-round, then see what we can do in the conference semifinals. If we do that, we'll be building towards another star.
 
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That's a very fair point. I do wonder if we are at the forefront of what this league is becoming. Maybe we're an extreme case, but this is becoming a selling league. It's becoming a developmental league for young players - that's the next progression of how MLS takes a step towards where it wants to go. Maybe we're on the extreme side and should have gone with guys in the 21-22 range instead of 18-19, or maybe Jovan and Agu will be the bedrocks of the next team to win a championship.

My goal for this season is to be top-4 in the East, get 2 of 3 at home in that three-game series first-round, then see what we can do in the conference semifinals. If we do that, we'll be building towards another star.

Yeah, it's possible, if Lee turns out to be a visionary and this is the foundation of a long run of success I will be happy to eat my words. I'm not opposed to stocking a solid portion of the roster with prospects but spending the entire off-season transfer budget on 18-year-olds was a bit extreme IMO.
 
Twellman's discussion of xG at halftime was one of the dumbest sports announcing sequences I've ever heard.

i was surprised to hear twellman's voice. I wasn't expecting him to announce our game. I thought he almost always had dibs on miami games.

He sounded a bit disinterested in our game to be honest. Didn't seem like the usual Twellman hot takes commentary. Maybe he was struggling to find something to talk about haha.
 
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Couldn't watch this live but I watched the replay in spite of knowing the results because derby.

I was thinking I would have been pretty anxious throughout the second half if I didn't already know the outcome, but reactions here and the stats on the MLS site aren't really backing me up (xG and shots/SOG in particular). Felt like we were under a lot of pressure.

Anyway, not trying to complain about a derby win or 9 points from 3 rivalry games or 6 wins in 7 matches. Maybe my brain hasn't caught up to material conditions.
 
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Couldn't watch this live but I watched the replay in spite of knowing the results because derby.

I was thinking I would have been pretty anxious throughout the second half if I didn't already know the outcome, but reactions here and the stats on the MLS site aren't really backing me up (xG and shots/SOG in particular). Felt like we were under a lot of pressure.

Anyway, not trying to complain about a derby win or 9 points from 3 rivalry games or 6 wins in 7 matches. Maybe my brain hasn't caught up to material conditions.

I was anxious. Red bulls seemed to have the better opportunities despite having lower xG. After about 80 mins though.. I felt pretty good cause it seemed like they were hyped to see out the end of the game.
 
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in addition to what happened during game play, in the last week we saw:

-a Toronto FC player get involved in a brawl in a game he didn’t even suit up for
-multiple headbutts and kicks to the groin between opposing players in said brawl
-a coach accusing the NYCFC coach of punching a teenager two months ago
-a raccoon having one of the best animal on the field runs in MLS history
-NYCFC subsequently adopting the raccoon as its new mascot
-a major crowd control miss enabling tons of fans to be late to the game
-the home tailgate being moved because of a dead body

Yeah. We are nothing if not interesting. What a week.
 
He has been forward previously, but not point of the arrow that I recall. Perhaps I missed it, but last night when he came in it surprised me how far upfield he was, harrassing Coronel and Nealis as opposed to picking up players closer to midfield. I'll have to rewatch a bit of the Philly game.
He's been that far forward the last few games. The previous two he didn't start there, but moved there following subs (Parks in at Toronto and Haak in at Philly).

It's been very interesting and something I'm hoping to ask Cushing about this week (wanted to ask him Saturday night but wasn't given a question).
 
Best derby ever? Or is that recency bias? And a massive shift in psychology, for me. We were better than Red Bull. They don’t scare me anymore.
Probably recency bias, but it's definitely up there.

If we're talking best derby ever based on NYCFC performance alone, probably the 5-2 win in 2020. But lopsided games, while great, aren't as thrilling and exciting and that one was also with a muted crowd due to COVID.

In terms of thrilling, the Villa hat trick, Heber meg, and 1-1 draw down 2 men definitely come to mind.
 
Probably recency bias, but it's definitely up there.

If we're talking best derby ever based on NYCFC performance alone, probably the 5-2 win in 2020. But lopsided games, while great, aren't as thrilling and exciting and that one was also with a muted crowd due to COVID.

In terms of thrilling, the Villa hat trick, Heber meg, and 1-1 draw down 2 men definitely come to mind.

Yeah I'm not sure this is even in the Top 5.

Villa, Heber, 9-man game are clearly ahead. The first win with Villa and Harrison scoring is ahead, too. Sweeping them in 2022 with the Santi opener is ahead.
 
Well, it is Twellman. Why wasn’t he announcing his home team Messiami?

Also is there video of this anywhere? lol
It's at halftime of the full game replay, but in short he opened with the "xG says [___] but I know what I saw" gambit, which fine, but xG is based on detailed tracking of millions of shots over many years based on at least
  • location
  • kick, volley, header, etc.
  • state of play (free kick, breakaway, standard run of play etc)
  • location of defenders
and then simply dividing Goals/Shots to determine how often each similar-type shot goes in goal. You have to be a fool to think one's ability to judge how dangerous shots are is superior to that. Moreover, his primary specific example that xG underestimated how dangerous RB was in the first half was a Lewis Morgan shot from 20-25 yards because it hit the post. That's like me claiming people overstate how hard it is to pull an inside straight because one time I needed a 5 and I got a 6. I mean, even if I got the 5 that one time doesn't change the odds, and I would literally be using an example where the likely odds won out. Twellman also pointed to a shot by Haper from outside the side of the 6 yard box. It was close, but it's a tough angle and if the keeper is in position it just is not high probability.

xG has limitations. It doesn't capture everything (eg if a team gets the ball to players in dangerous positions and they fail to shoot) but what it captures it does very well. Most of the complaints about it are based on it not sufficiently corresponding to actual goals over small samples, which is like complaining that a .300 hitter went 0 for 6 in yesterday's game, so what's the point of Batting Average anyway, or that same player hit .310, .270 and .320 in consecutive seasons.

To give Twellman some slack, he was reacting to the MLS xG figures which continue to be crazy outliers. For the full game, ASA had NYC with 0.02 more xG than RB. Opta had NYC up by 0.11. MLS had NYC up by 1.20. I don't trust the MLS xG figures at all.

For a somewhat fuller sense of each teams chances: according to Opta, NYC had 3 of the 4 most dangerous shots in the game, the 2 goals plus Jovan's from just inside the spot. Both teams had 7 shots worth at least 0.05 xG. RB had more <5% shots by 8 to 5, and one of them went in.
 
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