2016 Playoff Projections, or Hope By The Numbers

[mgarbowski]

We have 11 games left in the regular season. Optimistically, I think we can win 9 of them.

SJ (A), Col (A), Orl (A), DC (H), NE (A), Chi (H), Hou (A), DC (A), Col (H). These are teams we are better than, well I think we are better than.

The other two games are LA (H) and DAL (H).

Do we have the easiest regular season schedule left in MLS? Most of our matches are against non-playoff or borderline playoff Eastern Conference teams.

Hard to measure exactly. I would nominate Toronto as one to at least consider as being easier. Fourteen games remaining, of which 9 are at home. Of the 9 opponents they will face at home, 7 have 1 or 0 road wins all year. Of their 5 Away games, 3 are against Orlando, Houston, and Chicago. The others are against PHI and MTL.

 

[snugglefarts]

 

[LionNYC]

View attachment 5429

Hmm. We beat Colorado. If we beat LA and Dallas (the only other 99% teams), we'll be the 1% which is fitting for NYCFC.

 

[Ulrich]

Hmm. We beat Colorado. If we beat LA and Dallas (the only other 99% teams), we'll be the 1% which is fitting for NYCFC.

If we beat both of those teams, baring a colossal collapse capped by our others, then we'll have clawed enough head-2-head points back to be in the thick of the Supporters Shield race.

I want to win just to gloat that it's no so tough to achieve if a second year club can do it.

 

[Shawn S]

If we beat both of those teams, baring a colossal collapse capped by our others, then we'll have clawed enough head-2-head points back to be in the thick of the Supporters Shield race.

I want to win just to gloat that it's no so tough to achieve if a second year club can do it.

If we beat Dallas, I believe we only have to make up 2 points to close in on them in the SS race. Shouldn't be difficult given our remaining schedule and Dallas about to lose their best player. Bigger uphill battle will be COL given their games in hand. Hopefully the league can figure out how to carve that defense up like we did and they will have a tough time continuing to win games at the clip that they were in the 1H of the season

 

[mgarbowski]

If we beat Dallas, I believe we only have to make up 2 points to close in on them in the SS race. Shouldn't be difficult given our remaining schedule and Dallas about to lose their best player. Bigger uphill battle will be COL given their games in hand. Hopefully the league can figure out how to carve that defense up like we did and they will have a tough time continuing to win games at the clip that they were in the 1H of the season

Don't forget LA. They are 1 point behind us with 3 extra games to play pending their Seattle match this afternoon. Even if they lose today, and even if we beat them, that leaves them 4 points back with 2 extra games to play in the remaining games, which means they would not need any help to overcome us. If they get a result today and/or against us, they are in even better shape. They might be the toughest competition for the Shield.

 

[adam]

Don't forget LA. They are 1 point behind us with 3 extra games to play pending their Seattle match this afternoon. Even if they lose today, and even if we beat them, that leaves them 4 points back with 2 extra games to play in the remaining games, which means they would not need any help to overcome us. If they get a result today and/or against us, they are in even better shape. They might be the toughest competition for the Shield.

I agree with LA being the team to look out for. Dallas might not be the same without Fabain Castillo. Don't think they'll suck, but they won't be as strong. Colorado has not been the same since Howard showed up. We could probably have a whole thread on why, but let's leave that to their forum, if they have one. LA is on of the most talented teams in MLS, getting healthy, and poised for a late run. I'm glad we have them at home this season, should be a big matchup.

 

[FootyLovin]

Hard to measure exactly. I would nominate Toronto as one to at least consider as being easier. Fourteen games remaining, of which 9 are at home. Of the 9 opponents they will face at home, 7 have 1 or 0 road wins all year. Of their 5 Away games, 3 are against Orlando, Houston, and Chicago. The others are against PHI and MTL.

Good points but I'd argue our schedule is as or more favorable than TOR's simply because we are up 7 points on them with 3 fewer games to play. Those extra games will be midweek games for them whereas we have a nice cushy 1 game/week schedule the rest of the way. So on paper, I'd say we have the easier of the two.

 

[adam]

Good points but I'd argue our schedule is as or more favorable than TOR's simply because we are up 7 points on them with 3 fewer games to play. Those extra games will be midweek games for them whereas we have a nice cushy 1 game/week schedule the rest of the way. So on paper, I'd say we have the easier of the two.

That's true. When we think of games in hand, we don't ever consider that means the team with more matches to play has more mid-week games squeezed into their schedule. There might actually be an advantage in the MLS to having fewer matches remaining (if you're up on points).

Also, don't forget that Toronto might have an easy schedule. But they have it without Bradley anymore.

 

[Syed Ashrafulla]

That's true. When we think of games in hand, we don't ever consider that means the team with more matches to play has more mid-week games squeezed into their schedule. There might actually be an advantage in the MLS to having fewer matches remaining (if you're up on points).

Also, don't forget that Toronto might have an easy schedule. But they have it without Bradley anymore.

One in the hand's worth two in the bush, as they say. I think in the East you can't expect anyone to get more than 1.5ppg the rest of the way. In the West, the top 3 will probably put up a higher average (5 in 3 at least).

 

[Ulrich]

Don't forget LA. They are 1 point behind us with 3 extra games to play pending their Seattle match this afternoon. Even if they lose today, and even if we beat them, that leaves them 4 points back with 2 extra games to play in the remaining games, which means they would not need any help to overcome us. If they get a result today and/or against us, they are in even better shape. They might be the toughest competition for the Shield.

Agree on LA, but but they're due for a perfect storm of injuries and suspensions. Van Damme is at 6 yellows, Steres at 5, de la Garza at 3, and de Jong has the itch for another Red. Their defense could be patchwork for the rest of the year with a few more cards each game - and the quickest path to a yellow card is defending against speed - we may not benefit from the suspensions in our match with them, but their players could realistically take a bunch of yellows defending us and then suffer in later games, thus helping our chances.

I know, I know, it's a big IF, but I'm playing all the angles.

 

[Gene]

Good points but I'd argue our schedule is as or more favorable than TOR's simply because we are up 7 points on them with 3 fewer games to play. Those extra games will be midweek games for them whereas we have a nice cushy 1 game/week schedule the rest of the way. So on paper, I'd say we have the easier of the two.

That's true. When we think of games in hand, we don't ever consider that means the team with more matches to play has more mid-week games squeezed into their schedule. There might actually be an advantage in the MLS to having fewer matches remaining (if you're up on points).

I tried to make the same argument last year when Montreal had all those games in hand. How'd that work out for me?

 

[Ulrich]

I tried to make the same argument last year when Montreal had all those games in hand. How'd that work out for me?

Drogba was an outlier and carried them. That wasn't normal

 

[adam]

I tried to make the same argument last year when Montreal had all those games in hand. How'd that work out for me?

But we also didn't have points in hand. We were almost tied and they had games in hand. Here, the teams that have games on us have to win every one to catch up if we keep pace. And Ulrich is correct, Drogba was an outlier.

 

[mgarbowski]

Yeah, last year Montreal only had to get 5 or 6 points out of those extra 5 games to put real distance between them and us. We were usually just a few points behind them all year and they spent a lot of time in sixth place. They were deceptively close and gave people false hope, because it seemed like one win by us and one loss by them and we would be in great shape.

Right now, in contrast, Toronto is 9 points back of us with 3 games in hand. They have to win all 3 just to get even with us. That's worth knowing, because it is a possibility. We are not as far ahead of them as a 9-point lead seems. But we are, in fact, ahead of them.

 

[Ulrich]

Yeah, last year Montreal only had to get 5 or 6 points out of those extra 5 games to put real distance between them and us. We were usually just a few points behind them all year and they spent a lot of time in sixth place. They were deceptively close and gave people false hope, because it seemed like one win by us and one loss by them and we would be in great shape.

Right now, in contrast, Toronto is 9 points back of us with 3 games in hand. They have to win all 3 just to get even with us. That's worth knowing, because it is a possibility. We are not as far ahead of them as a 9-point lead seems. But we are, in fact, ahead of them.

Seven point back. 2 wins and 1 tie. That's tough to ask for

 

[mgarbowski]

Seven point back. 2 wins and 1 tie. That's tough to ask for

Correct. It's 7 points and not the 9 I somehow wrote. Still a big ask as you note.

 

[JayH]

I just found myself naturally rooting against LA notwithstanding big fantasy investments due to SS implications. Last season I was naturally rooting against teams so that I could read mgarbowski upgrade our playoff chances from 8 to 9%. What a difference a season makes.

 

[mgarbowski]

• We started the season with 7 points in 8 games. That's 0.88 PPG and a cume of 1.05 PPG in 42 games with last season. Since then we are at 1.93 PPG over 15 games.
• We also started the season with 18 points in the first 15 games for 1.20 PPG and 1.12 over 49 games cume with last year. Since then we won 18 points in 8 games for 2.25 PPG.
• In 2014, New England had a 1.15 PPG over its first 20 games which featured both a 5-game winning streak and an 8-game losing streak. They finished with 2.29 PPG over the last 14 and 55 points overall.
• Last year when we were in a truly hopeless situation people sometimes pointed to the 2014 Revs as a reason to hope, but at our best we were barely as good as them at their worst. This year we kind of look like them if you take your glasses off and squint a little.
• We have a 3-game Home winning streak.
• We had 6 Draws in the first 14 games, and none in the last 9.
• We are 4-2-0 against the West 2.0 PPG.
• We are 6-5-6 against the East 1.41 PPG.
• So if we were in the West we'd be in 1st Place of that tough conference, just like we're in the middle of the East table.... Oh wait, it doesn't work that way.
• We are 4-3-5 at Home 1.41 PPG.
• We are 6-4-1 on the Road 1.73 PPG.
• Our Goal Differential against the entire league excluding NYRB is +8.
• Our GD against the West is +5. The rest of the East against the West is -18.
• Last week there were 4 teams capable of catching us with the help of just one NYCFC loss or less. Toronto kept pace, but Philly lost, and Montreal and NYRB drew. So we now have a minimally bigger cushion, but spots 1 through 5 in the table are really quite tight and the team cannot afford to start dropping points. Plus the Impact and Red Bull draws were on the road and both were earned with goals after the 85-minute mark. This was not a bad week of East Conference results but it was not as good as it nearly was, or should have been.
• Right now we sit top of the East with projected 53 points. The last time the East winner had that few points was SKC in 2011 with 51 (the first year they played 34 games). The next lowest East winners since then had 59 points.
• 
  
• My what-we-need-to-do chart doesn't even go up to 59, but figure we need to win 7 or 8 of the remaining 11.
• 

Think on this: we could get to 50 points with a losing record here on out.

 

[LionNYC]

• We started the season with 7 points in 8 games. That's 0.88 PPG and a cume of 1.05 PPG in 42 games with last season. Since then we are at 1.93 PPG over 15 games.
• We also started the season with 18 points in the first 15 games for 1.20 PPG and 1.12 over 49 games cume with last year. Since then we won 18 points in 8 games for 2.25 PPG.
• In 2014, New England had a 1.15 PPG over its first 20 games which featured both a 5-game winning streak and an 8-game losing streak. They finished with 2.29 PPG over the last 14 and 55 points overall.
• Last year when we were in a truly hopeless situation people sometimes pointed to the 2014 Revs as a reason to hope, but at our best we were barely as good as them at their worst. This year we kind of look like them if you take your glasses off and squint a little.
• We have a 3-game Home winning streak.
• We had 6 Draws in the first 14 games, and none in the last 9.
• We are 4-2-0 against the West 2.0 PPG.
• We are 6-5-6 against the East 1.41 PPG.
• So if we were in the West we'd be in 1st Place of that tough conference, just like we're in the middle of the East table.... Oh wait, it doesn't work that way.
• We are 4-3-5 at Home 1.41 PPG.
• We are 6-4-1 on the Road 1.73 PPG.
• Our Goal Differential against the entire league excluding NJRB is +8.
• Our GD against the West is +5. The rest of the East against the West is -18.
• Last week there were 4 teams capable of catching us with the help of just one NYCFC loss or less. Toronto kept pace, but Philly lost, and Montreal and NJRB drew. So we now have a minimally bigger cushion, but spots 1 through 5 in the table are really quite tight and the team cannot afford to start dropping points. Plus the Impact and Red Bull draws were on the road and both were earned with goals after the 85-minute mark. This was not a bad week of East Conference results but it was not as good as it nearly was, or should have been.
• Right now we sit top of the East with projected 53 points. The last time the East winner had that few points was SKC in 2011 with 51 (the first year they played 34 games). The next lowest East winners since then had 59 points.
• View attachment 5471
  
• My what-we-need-to-do chart doesn't even go up to 59, but figure we need to win 7 or 8 of the remaining 11.
• View attachment 5472

Think on this: we could get to 50 points with a losing record here on out.

2014 Revs you say? So we'll get to the MLS Cup versus the LA Galaxy with a retiring legend and lose...but Steven Gerrard is plagued to never win the league. MLS CHAMPIONS NYCFC!