2016 Playoff Projections, or Hope By The Numbers
- Thread starter mgarbowski
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Seeing NYCFC in first is great.
A RBNY - DCU knockout game would also be must see tv considering what has happened between those teams this year.
Obviously, the odds are now slightly in our favor for the two seed (at least until about 9pm tonight.) If the current scenario above holds true, I would be thrilled to see DCU knock out the Red Bull (even though I would love to bestow that honor ourselves) and Montreal advance. That would see us playing Montreal, which of all the teams in contention I would most like to play.
Actually, if we are first in the east and NJ loses to DC, then we would get DC. The top seed plays whichever of the two first round winners is lower seeded. I had to get corrected on this a few weeks ago.
Correct. My assumption was based on Toronto still winning the east and us having the 2 seed and the rest of the order holding. Even though we lead right now, I don't think we are winning the East.
Toronto's loss tonight really, really helps our hopes for a bye. I figure four points might just seal the deal. Toronto has MTL away and Chicago home, so they might get six points, but odds are they won't have more than four, and we're now two points in front of them.
Red Bulls don't have an easy schedule, either -- vs CLB and at PHI.
Red Bulls don't have an easy schedule, either -- vs CLB and at PHI.
No matter what happens now, last game of the season will matter for seeding.
One other thing to remember is that if the race for first is between RBNY and NYCFC to win the East, the winner gets CCL.
With RBNY holding the tiebreaker (note: they are +10 on GD, the exact margin by which they beat down NYCFC in their two wins), it is a tough road.
DCU is on an absolute tear - I think they have lost one of their last 12 games (and they only lost that one in the 93rd minute to NYCFC). Gonna be real hard to get 3 there.
With RBNY holding the tiebreaker (note: they are +10 on GD, the exact margin by which they beat down NYCFC in their two wins), it is a tough road.
DCU is on an absolute tear - I think they have lost one of their last 12 games (and they only lost that one in the 93rd minute to NYCFC). Gonna be real hard to get 3 there.
He's been amazing for them. Glad to see he's found a system that works to his strengths. Even if he had seen more time I'm not sure he produces results like this in the 4-3-3 that we play this year. The perplexing thing is trying to understand why we couldn't find a way to get this out of him last year when we played in a 2 striker formation similar to what he's playing in now in DC.
Well Kreis was set on playing a 4-2-3-1 instead of a 2 striker system. He couldn't figure out how to get Pirlo on the field without providing appropriate defensive cover.
Translated: Jason Kreis wasn't smart enough to use all of the players at his disposal to their maximum ability. Substitute "isn't" for "wasn't" if describing his tenure at Orlando.
I know people are crapping on Houston in hindsight, but before Friday night we were all talking about how Houston has been a very solid team the last couple months and almost unbeatable at home all year.
DC and NY both have something to play for. It'll be a lot of fun to watch.
Speaking of Kreis, his Orlando City was eliminated from the playoffs today with 2 games left to go.
Latest strength-of-schedule update. Toronto's games at a sinking Montréal and hosting woeful Chicago give them the easiest path, while our game at DCU is judged slightly easier than New Jersey's at Philly, and I am not sure that's true given recent form (both teams also host Columbus).
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Here are the remaining games for each team in contention. Chicago and Orlando are out.
51 - NJ Red Fools: vs. Columbus, at Philly
51 - NYCFC: at DCU, vs. Columbus
49 - Toronto: at Montreal, vs. Chicago
44 - Montreal: vs. Toronto, at New England
43 - DC United: vs. NYC, at Orlando
42 - Philadelphia: vs. Orlando, vs. NJRB
-------------------
39 - New England: at Chicago, vs. Montreal
35 - Columbus: at Chicago, at NJRB, at NYC
51 - NJ Red Fools: vs. Columbus, at Philly
51 - NYCFC: at DCU, vs. Columbus
49 - Toronto: at Montreal, vs. Chicago
44 - Montreal: vs. Toronto, at New England
43 - DC United: vs. NYC, at Orlando
42 - Philadelphia: vs. Orlando, vs. NJRB
-------------------
39 - New England: at Chicago, vs. Montreal
35 - Columbus: at Chicago, at NJRB, at NYC
If we muck up the last two weeks and end up having to play the play-in game, I think I'd most want to play Montreal. The narrative around them is that they have a real problem playing Drogba because he doesn't play any defense. He was pretty much a complete passenger when they played the Red Bulls a few weeks ago and has been on the bench since. They were pretty lucky to come out of Orlando with a win given the flow of the match.
It will be fascinating to see what Biello does with him going forward, but I'm not sure there is any team in the league that would most benefit from not being pressed aggressively more than us and, without him, I think they lack offensive punch generally. Indeed, we have played very well against them this year, even when they were playing better early in the season.
As a side note, I also think the Drogba story is a real cautionary tale for how we approach think about what to do with our existing DPs when we reach decision points. Sure, all three have really contributed this year and the number of minutes that both Villa and Pirlo have played is astounding. But, as one gets into his late-30s, it can go really quickly and a long-term commitment could be disastrous.
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