A win's a win a win. But we also beat Vancouver this year too.
2016 Playoff Projections, or Hope By The Numbers
- Thread starter mgarbowski
- Start date
A win's a win a win. But we also beat Vancouver this year too.
Season is now half over...17 played, 17 to go. Means NYCFC is projected to finish with 48 points. Smells like playoffs to me at that rate.
Cup Half Full
Well,
canchon stole my opening, and he's right.
Cup Half Empty
I could add more here and there, but on balance I'm currently in a Glass Half Full mood as the bullets suggest. The next 5 games will be huge as we play Red Bulls twice and 4 of the 5 are on the road. We either prove our Road Warrior record is real or not. Here are the PPG standings:
How Tough Is Our Road?
The previously mentioned the next 4 are not so bad considering. The Red Bulls have 6 home wins and 4 wins over losses but New England, SKC and Montreal are a combined 4 wins over losses total at home. Those 3 are road points looking to be grabbed. We are also lucky to get the Rapids in NY this year as they are 7 wins over losses at home to date. But, one item of worry is that our last 6 road games are among our hardest. As those teams have a combined 14 more wins than losses at home. I would really like to keep building our road record in the next 4 because the rest of the schedule is notably more difficult.
What Do We Need to Do?
Probably another 6 or 7 wins:
I prefer to hope we can manage 4 wins in our remaining 7 homes games, then squeeze out another 3 out of 10 on the road. Last year Vancouver and Portland tied for the league lead with 7 road wins. To match that would be a significant accomplishment. To exceed it would be outstanding., and likely guarantee a playoff spot.
Well,
canchon stole my opening, and he's right.- We're halfway through with 24 points and so the easy math says we project to 48. We're also in second place and the playoff line sits at roughly 43 making our cushion nearly 5 points.
- This was a very good week for us. We also jumped from Fifth to Second in the PPG standings (I believe that is the highest all year), and no longer does every team in the conference have games in hand on us (although most do).
- Philadelphia might be slipping.
- The Red Bulls cannot win on the road (except Yankee Stadium).
- Our road record continues to impress (1.86 PPG) as does our record against the seemingly superior West (2.25 PPG).
- Our overall PPG of 1.41 is a shade short of 0.3 better than anything we reached last year excluding thru the first 3 games.
- We played most of the first half without a certain pair of English midfielders who make us demonstrably better. Barring more injuries, we should expect to be a better team in the second half than we were in the first.
- As bad as our home record was, it just seems unlikely we can continue to drop as many late points at home as we did in the first half of the season.
Cup Half Empty
- We have 10 road games left and no matter how good a road team we are it is tough to maintain road excellence. We might do it, but don't discount the difficulty.
- We also have 2 games left against the Red Bulls. I don't believe we're doomed to lose to them always but I also hate betting against a trend.
- I expect 3 of the teams below the playoff line: Toronto, New England and Columbus, to make solid runs in the second half and improve. Toronto especially because they have 12 home games remaining and they're not weird about H/A ratios like we are.
I could add more here and there, but on balance I'm currently in a Glass Half Full mood as the bullets suggest. The next 5 games will be huge as we play Red Bulls twice and 4 of the 5 are on the road. We either prove our Road Warrior record is real or not. Here are the PPG standings:
How Tough Is Our Road?
The previously mentioned the next 4 are not so bad considering. The Red Bulls have 6 home wins and 4 wins over losses but New England, SKC and Montreal are a combined 4 wins over losses total at home. Those 3 are road points looking to be grabbed. We are also lucky to get the Rapids in NY this year as they are 7 wins over losses at home to date. But, one item of worry is that our last 6 road games are among our hardest. As those teams have a combined 14 more wins than losses at home. I would really like to keep building our road record in the next 4 because the rest of the schedule is notably more difficult.
What Do We Need to Do?
Probably another 6 or 7 wins:
I prefer to hope we can manage 4 wins in our remaining 7 homes games, then squeeze out another 3 out of 10 on the road. Last year Vancouver and Portland tied for the league lead with 7 road wins. To match that would be a significant accomplishment. To exceed it would be outstanding., and likely guarantee a playoff spot.
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We are not getting points like any other team in MLS. Right now we are the only team with a losing record at home. We are also the only team with a winning record on the road.
We have been playing well nearly all year. Our attack is outstanding. Defense, not so much. Harrison and Lampard have strengthened our lineup and we should expect 6 or 7 more wins. American summer heat is going to be tough on our old midfield, but smart rotations and substitutions from PV can counter that. The East is definitely weaker than the West and we should be watching a playoff game at Yankee Stadium this Fall.
We have been playing well nearly all year. Our attack is outstanding. Defense, not so much. Harrison and Lampard have strengthened our lineup and we should expect 6 or 7 more wins. American summer heat is going to be tough on our old midfield, but smart rotations and substitutions from PV can counter that. The East is definitely weaker than the West and we should be watching a playoff game at Yankee Stadium this Fall.
One of the weird quirks about our schedule is that, based on current standings, our road games against the west are against the five bottom teams while our home games are against the five top teams. I don't really know what that means, if anything, other than it is another unhelpful factor in terms of getting to see some wins at home.
People have been asking for charts comparing last year to this year.
These potshots are as foolish/ignorant as the Kreis enthusiasts who continually claimed that there were no reasons for his dismissal.
- NYCFC's improved record this year can hardly be attributed to PV vs Kreis: Lampard, Iraola/Bravo at CDM, Mata, Jack.
- Kreis's problem wasn't his record. It was his management style - all misery all the time. Kill your relationships (with mgmt, players, etc.) and you're going to be out of a job.
Not exactly true. Kries had Lampard and still couldn't figure out a good way to use him with Pirlo. The big difference is Kries wanted Pirlo as a duel DMid and we're seeing he's great in an advanced position. Kries also had Iraola and only played him at right back, but it was Vieira that recognized he's a better DMid performer with his passing and movement. And while Harrison is a special special talent, the FO recognized this and moved mountains for him - whereas Kries felt Shelton was the best pick out of absolutely every player available save Larin, and we've seen he's not first-team ready.
Then there was man-management - it's yin/yang with Vieira.
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And every single one of those points could be rebutted (fairly or not) with some other point about Kreis doing something right or not having the pieces or first year blah blah blah. The point is that if the team (front office and players) were still behind him, he would have kept his job. I don't disagree with your points. I'm just saying they lend themselves to the same circular arguing we've been doing for a year now.
But indisputably, at this point anyway, PV has established a different tone and relationship style than Kreis. And with improved players, we are in first place. Attribute the standings to what you will. But the arguments aren't changing and I find kicking Kreis at this point to be tiresome.
I truly believe the tone of positivity and togatherness set by PV is the reason the team has been able to recover from the rough stretches rather than end up in a downward spiral.
Stop kicking Kreis. Can't we all just get along?
Back to playoff push, next four games will be telling. Continue the road form and playoffs are likely (and a top seed in the east even). "Regress to the mean" (as in lose a bunch of games) and it's a fight to get above the line.
I'd take 5 points (1 win and two ties). 6+ is gravy. Anything less than 3 is really concerning.
Back to playoff push, next four games will be telling. Continue the road form and playoffs are likely (and a top seed in the east even). "Regress to the mean" (as in lose a bunch of games) and it's a fight to get above the line.
I'd take 5 points (1 win and two ties). 6+ is gravy. Anything less than 3 is really concerning.
Don't get the angst over me saying Kreis set the bar low. He did. All we have to do is get 11 more points in 16 games to exceed that.
It's not a cheap shot if it's fact.
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