2017 Roster Discussion
- Thread starter NYCFCfan
- Start date
I think Johnson is going to beat out Lurch handily. I bet he'll be worth 2-3 goals over the course of the season, conservatively.
Are there any good soccermetrics sites that analyze stuff like this?
If he is going to start for someone, then they should be able to take the salary.
That would be worth it.
Seems it'll be announced today at 12:30
I wish him all the best next season. If he can somehow get consistent PT, I can see us benefitting even more financially either from his increased transfer value or Barcelona buying him outright at the end of his loan.
Good, meaningful GK stats are difficult to find. http://www.americansocceranalysis.com/ has someting called xG, where they calculate expected goals somehow, and then they look at how may the Keeper let in comapred to that. Still never seems to take in the whole package. For instance, keeper rankings are not consistent year over year and are not predictive.
Just count the number of PKs he scores and compare to how many Josh scored.
I was really into baseball sabermetrics a decade ago, and I actually worked for two years as a stats analyst for a fantasy sports publication. Statistical analytics seems 10x more difficult in soccer.
is it true that one of the reasons is because there are no "stops" in soccer like in baseball and that makes it harder to figure things out. byt that i mean in baseball there are at bats, each pitch is one at a time etc. where in soccer there really are no stops only for set pieces/ corners the rest is free flow
Announced by NYCFC? Because Barca SC already announced it, lol.
Personally, I think it is because chance has such an outsized impact on soccer, that unpredictability is going to foul up any attempt to quantify it. ie good things don't necessarily follow a highly skilled move.
In american football, a QB and WR who can consistently connect on a 50 yard pass are going to greatly increase the chance of scoring since it is quantifiable that teams score more when they are at the 20 yard line than their own 30 yard line.
However in soccer, Pirlo connecting on 50 meter passes doesn't increase the likelihood of scoring as linearly, since field position does not correlate with a dramatic increase in scoring likelihood. ie, players get the ball to the endline or into the penalty box all the time, and that # of chances is commonly beaten by the team who gets a goal off of one shot.
I think that is what makes it a great game. Unpredictability.
Variability is predictable though. Accuracy v precision kind of thing. So I wouldn't say that precludes analysis.
The hurdle for me (an amateur analyst) seems to mainly be data availability. In a real time environment like a soccer game, a lot of data is difficult to track.
I think stats are uniquely helpful in baseball because of isolation. A batter stands in the batter's box alone with extremely limited and indirect input or assistance from teammates. Sure you get more RBIs with runners on base, and will see more good pitches with the bases loaded or with a great hitter behind you, but in the end you swing at pitches coming straight from one opposing player with no assists, team chemistry or team timing involved. No other sport matches this.
I think the theories
Fantazma and
T
Tom in Fairfield CT stated about particular issues in soccer are also both valid.
I think the theories
Fantazma and
T
Tom in Fairfield CT stated about particular issues in soccer are also both valid.Im sure you've already seen it but the american soccer analysis site is the best ive found. They attempt to quantify things based on the opta data. I just don't see it leading to predictive value (ie this player will give you this amount of contribution) The conclusions are not strong.
They don't want to compete with the buzz from their "Best of Preseason 2016" post
I'm thinking the front office is on a roster news freeze until the SuperDraft. Reyna and Vieira are in Los Angeles for the combine and draft.
Just started reading this a few days ago and haven't been able to put it down. As someone new to MLS who never really followed it, it's great to learn about the history of the league. Thanks for the recommendation
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