I don't see NYCFC challenging for the shield, they will most likely start off slow as the pieces come together. (It sucks because 3 out of first four games are at home). Focus on peaking into playoff (maybe with new summer DP) and get at least a 3 seed.
Dallas won't win the shield either because they will be focused on CCL until May - yup they are going to the final - but I'd bet on them to win the cup once Diaz comes back. They will get a solid seed and look to win the cup.
Toronto is basically bringing everyone back so they have to be considered a favorite for the shield. I think RBNY will fall back unless Klejstan and BWP have another record year. Also think they are underestimating the loss of Dax.