By The Numbers: What We've Done, What Must We Do
- Thread starter mgarbowski
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OOPS. Posted to wrong thread.
Screw it. Do your own damn math this week. I do math when the game is not preempted for rain.
K + (G + W) = 0
Death Watch Update
I knew as soon as I saw the Starting XI, there was gonna be trouble.
Not necessarily on the pitch, but right here in River City. Turns out, both were true.
There's still a four game gap between the Top 6 and the Bottom 4 with precious few games remaining. On top of it all, City chose to make it more difficult by dropping three points. Now, the boys will have to hold on for dear life over the next two games at Yankee Stadium. The closest targets are Montreal and Columbus with MaxP of 59. They would have to drop every single game and City win every single match for us to overtake them. Plus, Orlando City is in the way, but that can be taken care of tonight. Here's the table.
Eastern Conference
1) 69 - NY Red Bulls
2) 61 - New England
3) 60 - DC United
4) 59 - Montreal
5) 59 - Columbus
6) 58 - Toronto
7) 47 - Orlando City
8) 46 - New York City
9) 45 - Chicago
10) 45 - Philadelphia
Western Conference
1) 68 - FC Dallas
2) 66 - Vancouver
3) 62 - LA Galaxy
4) 62 - Kansas City
5) 59 - Portland
6) 57 - Seattle
7) 57 - San Jose
8) 53 - Houston
9) 53 - Real Salt Lake
10) 52 - Colorado
As usual, these rankings are based on Maximum Possible Points (MaxP) for the season.
These point totals can't be exceeded; they can only be reduced by a draw or a loss.
UPDATE: 11:23pm Sunday
There is just nothing you can rely on these days.
So, Kansas City drops their match with Orlando and there's yet another team we have to pass (that I didn't anticipate). Toronto drops from #2 to #6; Orlando remains at #7.
In the West, Galaxy and Kansas City swap places.
I knew as soon as I saw the Starting XI, there was gonna be trouble.
Not necessarily on the pitch, but right here in River City. Turns out, both were true.
There's still a four game gap between the Top 6 and the Bottom 4 with precious few games remaining. On top of it all, City chose to make it more difficult by dropping three points. Now, the boys will have to hold on for dear life over the next two games at Yankee Stadium. The closest targets are Montreal and Columbus with MaxP of 59. They would have to drop every single game and City win every single match for us to overtake them. Plus, Orlando City is in the way, but that can be taken care of tonight. Here's the table.
Eastern Conference
1) 69 - NY Red Bulls
2) 61 - New England
3) 60 - DC United
4) 59 - Montreal
5) 59 - Columbus
6) 58 - Toronto
7) 47 - Orlando City
8) 46 - New York City
9) 45 - Chicago
10) 45 - Philadelphia
Western Conference
1) 68 - FC Dallas
2) 66 - Vancouver
3) 62 - LA Galaxy
4) 62 - Kansas City
5) 59 - Portland
6) 57 - Seattle
7) 57 - San Jose
8) 53 - Houston
9) 53 - Real Salt Lake
10) 52 - Colorado
As usual, these rankings are based on Maximum Possible Points (MaxP) for the season.
These point totals can't be exceeded; they can only be reduced by a draw or a loss.
UPDATE: 11:23pm Sunday
There is just nothing you can rely on these days.
So, Kansas City drops their match with Orlando and there's yet another team we have to pass (that I didn't anticipate). Toronto drops from #2 to #6; Orlando remains at #7.
In the West, Galaxy and Kansas City swap places.
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So one more loss or tie and we are out?
You keep saying that, week after week. That's just mean.
The math is mean. I'm a pretty nice guy, actually.
Well I never said *you* were mean. It's more the numbers that are mean, of course.
An aside: When I first started, I was looking for something equivalent to a "magic" a/k/a "tragic" number for a soccer table and I couldn't find anything that was comparable. After doing a bit of research, I flipped the standard table upside down and came up with these MaxP calculations.
The point I've been trying to make from the beginning is we're SO dependent on what those ahead of us do that it almost, emphasize almost, doesn't matter what we do. The almost being, of course, we must win.
When City went to Columbus and essentially played for the draw, that was the beginning of the end.
That was the irritant for me, especially when you could predict with reasonable certainty which teams City would lose to. When City loses to teams they should beat, it just makes it incredibly harder to hold out any hope.
So, to answer your question... mathematically, no. It could be as many as three weeks.
It could also be next week if we lose both upcoming matches.
(Four teams already have 40 points and if we lost both, we could never have more than 40.)
The point I've been trying to make from the beginning is we're SO dependent on what those ahead of us do that it almost, emphasize almost, doesn't matter what we do. The almost being, of course, we must win.
When City went to Columbus and essentially played for the draw, that was the beginning of the end.
That was the irritant for me, especially when you could predict with reasonable certainty which teams City would lose to. When City loses to teams they should beat, it just makes it incredibly harder to hold out any hope.
So, to answer your question... mathematically, no. It could be as many as three weeks.
It could also be next week if we lose both upcoming matches.
(Four teams already have 40 points and if we lost both, we could never have more than 40.)
If we beat Toronto, beat SJ, and the Revs beat the Impact we move to a 9% playoff chance. We really have to win 5 of the next 6 to have any considerable shot at the playoffs. And even then we would need help.
The good thing is there is no outcome this week in MLS that would 100% eliminate us from the playoffs.
The good thing is there is no outcome this week in MLS that would 100% eliminate us from the playoffs.
12th. six teams per conference make it.
I can't believe anyone still thinks we can make the playoffs.
I think you can make a case for 16th, as all 10 teams in the West are ahead of 6th place in the East.
Interesting bit from mlssoccer.com on Montreal = http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/artic...r-drogba-ignacio-piatti-others-head-home-rest
They're playing in San Jose tonight, but Bush, Piatti, Drogba and a couple more players have been sent home to rest up for their next match. They're also playing tonight without Ciman who still has one more match to serve of his 2 game suspension.
They're playing in San Jose tonight, but Bush, Piatti, Drogba and a couple more players have been sent home to rest up for their next match. They're also playing tonight without Ciman who still has one more match to serve of his 2 game suspension.
This is probably net negative for us because I suspect we need them to lose both matches and this probably increases the odds that they win on the weekend.
Lots of East Conference action last night so a midweek update is in order. Plus I skipped last weeekend.
In point terms, Orlando is one ahead of us and even on games played. Montreal is 2 ahead of us with 3 in hand. Toronto is 6 ahead with one game in hand.
Our possibilities:
5-0-0 = 46 points our max
4-0-1 = 44
4-1-0 = 43
3-0-2= 42
3-1-1= 41
2-0-3 = 40
Note that none of the above scenarios allows for more than one loss.
2-2-1 = 38 points
3-2-0= 40
3 wins 2 losses is 1.8 PPG and only gets us 40 points. We cannot lose 2 games.
TFC has been in a slump lately. This was their third straight loss, but that is still a decent cushion this late in the season.
1-3-2 gets them 42 points
2-3-1 gets them 44
3-3-0 gets 46
Their schedule
Home Colorado, Chicago, Philadelphia, Red Bulls, Columbus
Away Montreal
I see a likely 7 points there at least which would give them 44. I still say we cannot catch them.
Montreal just got a point in LA, which I had pre-marked as a loss. Then another point last night in SJ, down a man for much of the game, and without Drogba, Ciman, Piatti, and Donadel, with 9 first-time starters to help them rest during this tough stretch of multiple game weeks. Their schedule:
Home New England, Chicago, DC, Toronto
Away Orlando, Red Bulls, Colorado, New England
Not an extreme mix of tough or easy.
4-2-2= 47 points
3-2-3 = 45
3-3-2 = 44
3-5-0 = 42
2-3-3= 42
1-3-4= 40
I won't go through the Orlando scenarios. We're even on games played and one point behind so it's easy to figure what we need to do to leapfrog them. The bottom line is last night's win roughly doubled our playoff odds from 3% to 6%. Woo-hoo!
In point terms, Orlando is one ahead of us and even on games played. Montreal is 2 ahead of us with 3 in hand. Toronto is 6 ahead with one game in hand.
Our possibilities:
5-0-0 = 46 points our max
4-0-1 = 44
4-1-0 = 43
3-0-2= 42
3-1-1= 41
2-0-3 = 40
Note that none of the above scenarios allows for more than one loss.
2-2-1 = 38 points
3-2-0= 40
3 wins 2 losses is 1.8 PPG and only gets us 40 points. We cannot lose 2 games.
TFC has been in a slump lately. This was their third straight loss, but that is still a decent cushion this late in the season.
1-3-2 gets them 42 points
2-3-1 gets them 44
3-3-0 gets 46
Their schedule
Home Colorado, Chicago, Philadelphia, Red Bulls, Columbus
Away Montreal
I see a likely 7 points there at least which would give them 44. I still say we cannot catch them.
Montreal just got a point in LA, which I had pre-marked as a loss. Then another point last night in SJ, down a man for much of the game, and without Drogba, Ciman, Piatti, and Donadel, with 9 first-time starters to help them rest during this tough stretch of multiple game weeks. Their schedule:
Home New England, Chicago, DC, Toronto
Away Orlando, Red Bulls, Colorado, New England
Not an extreme mix of tough or easy.
4-2-2= 47 points
3-2-3 = 45
3-3-2 = 44
3-5-0 = 42
2-3-3= 42
1-3-4= 40
I won't go through the Orlando scenarios. We're even on games played and one point behind so it's easy to figure what we need to do to leapfrog them. The bottom line is last night's win roughly doubled our playoff odds from 3% to 6%. Woo-hoo!
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