It’s common to think your team is snakebit, but it cannot really be common. Bell curves suggest a few teams will have great good fortune, a few very bad, and most kind of normal. I recently read a comment in another platform where a NYCFC fan suggested a typical game is to dominate every statistic and lose. I thought, that’s not true overall because the team has won a lot more than it has lost. And it’s not true this year because with few exceptions including last weekend, NYCFC does not dominate any stats except maybe possession. Other teams shoot more, create more and better chances, and it’s no surprise we score fewer goals.
View attachment 12965
This is a table of every NYCFC team sorted by Points minus xPoints per game, and well, 2023 NYCFC is both bad because it generates the fewest xG per game in its history, and the team is particularly unlucky. XPoints is a number that reflects how many points a team should earn in any given game given the shots it takes and allows. It should be a bit more meaningful than GD minus xGD, because it accounts for games where, eg, you get 4.4 xG, give up 0.3, and win 2-1. You had bad luck of a sort because you did worse in both scoring and conceding, but in the end you still got 3 points so who cares?
In 2023, NYCFC. Is underperforming to the extent of 9-10 points total so far. The team should be in 7th or 8th place. And yes, I do think it is mostly luck, unless you want to say that Keris in 2015 was better at eking out results relative to performance than Delia in 2021. If you want to blame Nick, focus on the fact that this team generates the lowest xG per game of any NYCFC team ever. Blame that on him, the roster, both, however you want. It drives me nuts this year as Nick keeps saying the team had its chances but failed to be clinical because in fact, the team generally didn’t generate a lot of chances and that has been the problem. But xPt divergence is pretty random. This team is not quite as bad as its record reflects and that should be considered when judging performance.
That said, it is kind of weird (yet probably means nothing) that the 4 worst xPT seasons are 2020-2023. From 2015-2019 NYCFC was mildly to very lucky. From 2020 to now, it flipped. Here is the same table showing cumulative figures not adjusted per game.
View attachment 12966
That 2019 Torrent/Heber team was good, but not as good as it seemed. Among other things it benefitted from an insane finishing rate by Heber (and others). Vieira’s 2017 team was probably a lot better than his 2016 team, even though they were just 3 points apart. Honestly, all of this tracks to me, including that the 2021 team was much better than its second half slump made it seem. It was probably NYCFC’s best team. It had the highest xPts in 2021, more than New England even. That team deserved to win and it was no surprise when it did. And these numbers are a good part of the reason my position on Delia Out was a firm “NO” but for Cushing Out I’m a firm ”Maybe.” 2021 NYCFC was a good, well run team with bad luck. 2023 is a bad roster with a weak offense I think could be better, which also has had bad luck.
But the team also showed a much improved offense against Minnesota even though the goals did not come. If that continues, regardless of results, don’t be shocked if certain people keep their jobs.
And overall, NYCFC has a slightly positive Pts over xPts balance. The actual Goal Differential is about 22 goals better than xG differential, and that is mostly due to offense. NYC has over time significantly scored more than one would expect. Plus, from 2015 to now, NYCFC has scored more goals than any team in MLS, with an 18 goal gap to second (Philly). To emphasize, yes this include both 2015 and 2023: the most goals in MLS by a lot. If you wonder why I repeatedly jump on complaints about bad finishing, or when someone in chat says the team should have scored 3 goals in the first half if it was remotely clinical, this is why. NYCFC almost always scored more than you can reasonably expect And if you think otherwise your expectations are unreasonable. How much more than the rest of the league should NYCFC have Compared to what it already has?
But luck? NYCFC is close to even overall, and maybe due for a swing back to positive based off recent play.
