Mostly Dead Is Slightly Alive
The Line for Nine keeps going down. At the season quarter mark it was near 46-7 points. Last time I posted it was about 42 and currently it's 41. If NYCFC were in the West things would be much bleaker, though the East is handily beating the West this year 33 to 26 with 20 draws. The difference is the PPG gap between 1st and 9th is 0.83 in the East and 0.37 in the West.
The paradox of this table is that this close to the end of the season with more data to rely on, it is less reliable because a couple of teams going on 5-game streaks can shift it completely. Chicago had 17 points after 17 games, then collected 15 of the next 18 points, followed by 1 of the next 18. Streaks start and end with no warning.
Two wins and two draws gets 42 points. I'd say that's the minimum to have a shot, and might need more especially if Miami keeps making a run. Miami already has 2 more wins than NYC despite being 3 points back and 2 games in hand, so they will only need to tie on points to finish ahead. NYCFC leads the league in draws so it's unlikely to win any tie-breakers against anyone. Maybe against Charlotte who has just 1 fewer draws and currently a worse Goal Differential.
Narrratives
After Leagues Cup, Cushing either subbed Talles for Bakrar or played Talles not at all until 6 games in. He did this because he is stubborn and perhaps too dumb to realize Talles played best when paired with a Center Forward and also because Cushing is too defensive minded. When he finally played them together Talles headed a ball with more authority than he has done all year and this proves Cushing was wrong to keep Talles on the bench for most of the post-Leagues Cup stretch. | After Leagues Cup, Cushing either subbed Talles for Bakrar or played Talles not at all until 6 games in. He did because Bakrar had to gain fitness and he wanted a striker available to sub in for him when gassed and also because Talles underperformed all year and needed tough love to wake him up. When he finally played them together Talles headed a ball with more authority than he has done all year and this proves Cushing was right to keep Talles on the bench for most of the post-Leagues Cup stretch. |
Chances
Before Leagues Cup, NYCFC created 1.04 xG on 10.5 shots per game, and scored 1.00.
After Leagues Cup, NYCFC has created 1.55 xG on 14 shots per game and scored 0.83.
Clinical
In the six games since Leagues Cup, NYCFC has underscored its xG by an average of 0.72 goals per games. Bad finishing, bad luck, failure to be clinical, call it what you want. The xG creation went up by 50% and shots increased by 22% yet goals scored went down by 17%.
NYCFC has played 291 regular season games all time, which generates 287 5-game rolling averages. Of the 10 worst such 5-game rolling averages for goals compared to xG, 4 of those 10 worst have happened since Leagues Cup this year. This is undisputedly the worst stretch of finishing shots in NYCFC history.
Confirmation Bias
The last time someone on the forum said NYCFC failed to be "clinical" in a forum post was more than a month ago, because the consensus settled on a different narrative.