This team needs 12 points in the last 8 games (1.5 PPG) to be better than 2015.
NYCFC Season Discussion 2023: We Know What We Are, But Not What We May Be
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That would require four wins in eight games when they have only won five out of their 26 games so far. Uhhhhh yeah, not happening.
NYCFC’s last home win was April (yes APRIL) 22nd. Let that sink in.
Four months without a win at home.
Four months without a win at home.
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If he outsourced the NYCFC discussion to me it would have been nearly identical.
I did a little searching through GameFlow, which I believe uses the ASA statistics.
Out of our last 10 games - all competitions - in how many have we had more xG than our opponent?
The answer is eight out of ten. And in one of the other two, we had an exact xG tie at 1.12 for each team. Only in the League's Cup game at New Jersey did we lose the xG battle. Over that period, we have 3 wins, 3 ties and 4 losses.
Out of our last 10 games - all competitions - in how many have we had more xG than our opponent?
The answer is eight out of ten. And in one of the other two, we had an exact xG tie at 1.12 for each team. Only in the League's Cup game at New Jersey did we lose the xG battle. Over that period, we have 3 wins, 3 ties and 4 losses.
Link to the data.
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Further, when we had the higher xG, our advantage has been over 0.5 xG except for our 1-0 win over Montreal (0.41) and the 3-0 loss to Cincinnati (0.14).
Which is why Nick Cushing will, unfortunately, be keeping his job in 2024, regardless how the rest of the season plays out.
A 1 in 5 chance of no playoffs at 47 points seems way off. A 75% chance of no playoffs at 44 points is perhaps even crazier.
Since many people criticize Gray (and the decision to play him) due to his perceived weakness passing forward, I decided to see what the stats say. It's an interesting mixed story. It both supports and undermines (or at least adds a gloss to) the consensus. This table shows per 90 data for Gray, Ilenic and Cufre taken from FBref as of now, regarding passing, carries, touches and various turnovers. For each line, the player with the most or best number is Blue, the second best is Orange, and the Third is Green. For things like losing the ball to a tackle, the colors are based on lower numbers.
There is no figure for number of forward passes, but measured by distance, Gray passes forward more than either other player. But his forward passing yards represent a lower percentage of his total than either Cufre or Ilenic, because Gray also passes more than they do. Gray carries the ball forward more and for longer distances also. He has the most passes into the final third, but the fewest passes or crosses into the penalty area and the fewest carries into both of those attacking areas as well. The numbers are similar for touches: Gray has the most overall, the most in the defensive penalty area, defensive third, and middle third, but the least in the attacking third or penalty area.
Finally Gray has the fewest miscontrols, fewest times being tackled successfully, and the highest completion percentage on passes.
Gray plays further back and sometimes as a CB. Generally keepers and CBs have the most forward or progressive passing yards of any players (forwards can only pass or carry so many yards forward). Gray successfully passes or carries the ball from deep positions up to and into the final third, but there he stops (or maybe passes backwards which generates the negative reactions). I suspect Nick likes having one forward fullback and one who is more defensive and possession minded.
There is no figure for number of forward passes, but measured by distance, Gray passes forward more than either other player. But his forward passing yards represent a lower percentage of his total than either Cufre or Ilenic, because Gray also passes more than they do. Gray carries the ball forward more and for longer distances also. He has the most passes into the final third, but the fewest passes or crosses into the penalty area and the fewest carries into both of those attacking areas as well. The numbers are similar for touches: Gray has the most overall, the most in the defensive penalty area, defensive third, and middle third, but the least in the attacking third or penalty area.
Finally Gray has the fewest miscontrols, fewest times being tackled successfully, and the highest completion percentage on passes.
Gray plays further back and sometimes as a CB. Generally keepers and CBs have the most forward or progressive passing yards of any players (forwards can only pass or carry so many yards forward). Gray successfully passes or carries the ball from deep positions up to and into the final third, but there he stops (or maybe passes backwards which generates the negative reactions). I suspect Nick likes having one forward fullback and one who is more defensive and possession minded.
And he kinds of looks herky-jerky doing it. But he's a very effective defender.
Just got out of an extended hospital stay with a tough diagnosis in my back pocket, but it's good to be back. Can't believe all the changes! I have a lot to catch up on. In the meantime, Come On You Boys in Blue. We can at least haul ourselves over the line.
Was wondering what was up. Hope the medical problems stay behind you.
This is interesting. I have been of the view for a while that Gray vs Ilenic isn't the real comparison. The better question
I've often groaned when Gray would make yet another pass backwards, just shaking my head. But then five minutes later he'd make some amazing goal-saving defensive play and I'd once again vow to remember those. But let's revisit this in two years when he's a seasoned pro and perhaps one of the best defenders in the league. Hopefully.
As always, appreciate the numbers to bolster the subjective. This chart summarizes my feeling about Gray - a plus defender that controls the ball but is limited in the final third and in challenging defenders. Still seems as if he is a solid centerback playing right back. I believe he has a role with the team, but I am not sure he has found his ideal situation yet.
I'm not gonna be the one to break the email's asks; I'm just gonna say that Third Rail members should check your emails. Lots of good stuff from the Pres today.
I will add a request that non-TR members please don't ask for a summary, highlights, bullet points or anything. I've never seen such a strong assertion of confidentiality that did not involve an NDA.
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