NYCFC Season Discussion 2023: We Know What We Are, But Not What We May Be
- Thread starter mgarbowski
- Start date
Time to at least mention my dream scenario. We finish 8th and Miami finish 9th, and we host the Pinks in front of 49,000 in a baseball stadium.
Now that would require that we both catch Montreal. We are tied with the Clubbed Feet, who have a game in hand. Miami is 6 back of them with 2 games in hand.
Now that would require that we both catch Montreal. We are tied with the Clubbed Feet, who have a game in hand. Miami is 6 back of them with 2 games in hand.
I'd consider selling my two seats for a few grand apiece, no prob!Ah, Messi at Yankee Stadium.
Internet douchebags be like
After Match Day 34, NYCFC sets the playoff line, which sits at 41. Here is what teams need to do to reach that neighborhood:
Team | Task | Schedule | Opponent PPG and Notes | |
| Montreal | Win 2 of 4, get 43 points. | @ORL, HOU, POR, @CLB | 1.40 - Winless in 5 games. CLB is 11-1-3 at Home. HOU and POR terrible Away. | |
| NYCFC | Win 2 of 3 get 43 points. | @MIA, @DCU, CHI | 1.20 - Best recent form of any team in this group.
| |
| DC United | Win 2 of 3 get 42 points. | @VAN, @ATX, NYC | 1.31 - Winless in 7 games. | |
| Charlotte | Win 3 of 5 get 42 points. | @NER, TOR, @CHI, @MIA, MIA | 1.20 - 1 Win in last 14 games. | |
| RB | Win 3 of 4 get 43 points. | CHI, @CIN, TOR, @NSH | 1.46 - 2 Wins in last 9. Two tough Away games. | |
| CHI | Win 3 of 4 get 43 points. | @RB, MIA, CLT, @NYC | 1.22 - Winless in 7 games.
| |
| MIA | Win 3 of 5 plus 1 tie get 42 points. | NYC, @CHI, CIN, CLT, @ CLT | 1.17. Toughest opponents are NYC and Cincinnati in Miami. Messi. |
Two wins and 43 points seems very likely to do it. Most likely threats are at the top and bottom of the list.
Montreal has no excuse if it loses to Houston or Portland at home despite its recent poor form.
Miami is 4-1-2 in MLS play since Leagues Cup and has the easiest schedule but almost no wiggle room. They have to get results in at least 4 of their 5 remaining games. Cincinnati will be well motivated to beat them because if Miami advances they would play Cincy after the 8-9 Play In game. This weekends game is maybe everything.
Other than that, the danger is one of the other teams goes on a run. Seems unlikely but reversals of form always seem unlikely until they happen.
Great stuff, Mark.
When I analyze playoff races, one way I look at it is to consider who can pass us, and who can we pass. Right now, we are at the last playoff spot, so the accounting has to even out for us to advance.
Who can pass us?
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* - If MLS were remotely normal, our GD would give us the tiebreak over the other teams, with the probable exception of DCU.
When I analyze playoff races, one way I look at it is to consider who can pass us, and who can we pass. Right now, we are at the last playoff spot, so the accounting has to even out for us to advance.
Who can pass us?
- CHT - 4 points back, 2 games in hand, favorable schedule, BUT - their PPG remaining looks low because 2 are against Miami, and that's no longer easy, but if those are the games that knock out Charlotte, that's good for...
- MIA - 5 points back, 2 games in hand, on a roll, BUT schedule congestion is tough for them; they've got games every Wed & Sat up to (and partly during) the international break, a break that will not provide any rest for their best (and oldest) player.
- DCU - 1 point back, 0 games in hand, playing terrible ball lately and schedule is tough, but if they can pip a win at home against us, they have a chance.
- RBNJ & CHI - both 3 points back, 1 game in hand; play each other in Harrison next; team that wins has a chance; RB have a very tough schedule after that; CHI has an easier schedule and plays NYC but is on terrible form.
- MTL - Equal on points, 1 game in hand; bad form and really tough schedule; this is possible for NYCFC.
- All in all, this looks pretty good if we can execute; we can knock out the teams chasing us and many of them play each other; if Montreal falters, we are in the catbird's seat.
- This weekend's games will be huge. One of NJRB and CHI may gain a big boost for the stretch run while basically knocking out the other team. NYC-MIA might give the Pigeons some wiggle room or the Herons a boost. Other teams have tough road games that might knock them down. The board will be clearer after Saturday, but in what way?
- YOUR PERIODIC REMINDER - our tiebreak situation stinks; all the teams chasing us should hold the tiebreak* with the possible exception of Charlotte.
- Lots of games between the teams chasing us. Root for TIES.
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* - If MLS were remotely normal, our GD would give us the tiebreak over the other teams, with the probable exception of DCU.
Not gonna lie, we’ve been below the line for so long that I truly did not believe it when
mgarbowski said that we were above the line.
mgarbowski said that we were above the line.
For me it boils down to this... we are playing fringe playoff teams. If we cant get results vs the bottom half of the conference then we don't deserve to get in. Simple as that. No excuses. Just get it done.
Exactly.
In a convoluted sort of way one can make the point we're in the playoffs and playing Miami in the 1st round. Win the match and we move on to the next round vs DCU.
In a way, yes. But it is more like a group stage. We are going to play all games no matter what.
7-9 points advances
6 very likely advances
4 might advance
3 probably not
0-2 we're out
Best Possible Results for NYCFC on Matchday 35:
- NYCFC wins at Miami
- Montreal loses at Orlando
- Charlotte loses at New England
- Red Bulls tie vs. Chicago
- D.C. loses at Vancouver
- NYCFC wins at Miami
- Montreal loses at Orlando
- Charlotte loses at New England
- Red Bulls tie vs. Chicago
- D.C. loses at Vancouver
NYCFC tied at Miami
Montreal lost at Orlando
Charlotte lost at New England
Chicago won at Red Bulls (bad result for us)
D.C. tied at Vancouver
Really again echoes how a win at Miami tonight could have gone a long way.
A win would have all-but clinched it.
We now need a tie at DC and a win vs Chicago. Those results would almost certainly see us get in.
A win would have been ideal, of course, but those results went about as well as we could have hoped - and they make the draw easier to accept.
Both Montreal and Chicago have slightly higher PPG than NYC which is why they're ahead on the PPG table, which matters little. Two teams need a very short win streak and the PPG will follow. I think the playoff line can easily end up at 42-44.
Team | Games | Points | Math | Schedule | Opponent PPG and Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal | 3 | 37 | 3 Wins 46 points. 2 Wins 1 tie 44 pts. 2 Wins 43 points. 1 Win 1 tie 41. | HOU, POR, @CLB | 1.26 - Last win August 26. Have to win home games before DD at Columbus |
| CHI | 3 | 37 | 3 Wins 46 pts. 2 Wins 1 tie 44 pts. 2 Wins 43 points. | MIA, CLT, @NYC | 1.10 - Just ended 6 game winless streak. Streaky and suddenly concerning. |
| NYCFC | 2 | 38 | 2 Wins 44 points. 1 Win 1 tie 42. 1 Win 41. | @DCU, CHI | 1.13 |
| DC United | 2 | 37 | TBD. | @ATX, NYC | 1.08 - 1 win in last 10 games, but same is true for Austin. |
| Miami | 4 | 33 | 3 Wins 1 tie 43 points. 3 Wins 42 points. 2 Wins 1 tie 40 points. | @CHI, CIN, CLT, @ CLT | 1.31. Messi? |
| Charlotte | 4 | 33 | 3 Wins 1 tie 43 points. 3 Wins 42 points. 2 Wins 1 tie 40 points. | TOR, @CHI, @MIA, MIA | 0.99 - 1 Win in last 15 games dating back to May. |
| RB | 3 | 34 | 3 Wins 43 points. 2 Wins 1 tie 41. | @CIN, TOR, @NSH | 1.65 - 2 Wins in last 9. Two tough Away games. |
Charlotte and Red Bull are miracle projects at best. But for the stars and the red carpet treatment, same would be true of Miami.
Everyone in this table plays Wednesday but NYCFC, which will remove all games in hand except the Miami-Charlotte make up for Leagues Cup.
Wednesday Games:
Montreal hosts Houston - must win for Montreal
Chicago hosts Miami Game of the week. Pick your poison if not a tie. I'd rather Miami win. If the Fire win, they can get to 44 points beating a dead Charlotte team at home before playing NYCFC on Decision Day. NYCFC's max points is 44 and will lose the tiebreaker.
DC at Austin - if DC wins NYC mathematically must get at least a tie in DC next weekend to be able to finish above DC.
Charlotte hosts Toronto - possible win for CLT but likely meaningless
Red Bull at Cincinnati - possible letdown game for Cincy after clinching the Shield but unlikely to matter.
I did not expect Chicago and DC to be such big threats to NYCFC's playoff hopes but things are coming into focus. If both drop points on Wednesday, NYCFC's position is very strong as long as they get 4 more points. If Montreal, DC and Chicago win, NYCFC is in trouble even if it wins out.
The comforting news is that two wins (essentially) guarantees us playoffs barring Miami or Charlotte winning all 4 games.
This is the annual moment where I look back and say "if only we didn't drop 2 points on either this, this, that, or that other night, we would be in much better shape"
This is the annual moment where I look back and say "if only we didn't drop 2 points on either this, this, that, or that other night, we would be in much better shape"
PlayoffStatus has NYCFC and Chicago each at 45% to make the playoffs, followed by Montreal at 43%, then a drop to DC and to my surprise Charlotte each at at 26% Miami is12% and Red Bull 3%.
Teams who control their fate are Montreal, Chicago, Miami and Charlotte. NYCFC's max points is 44, and each of those teams can get higher if they win out. NYC plays Chicago but cannot stop the other 3 from winning out. It's just unlikely.
Teams who control their fate are Montreal, Chicago, Miami and Charlotte. NYCFC's max points is 44, and each of those teams can get higher if they win out. NYC plays Chicago but cannot stop the other 3 from winning out. It's just unlikely.
So if we win out, don't we basically guarantee a spot assuming MTL loses a single game (Which, look at their schedule, they will lol.)
Chicago cannot get 44 points if we win out, because we would stop them at 2 wins. Same goes for DC (We would stop them at 1 win.) RB cannot pass us, and Miami/Charlotte cannot both gain their maximum points because they play each other twice. They either knock each other out by tying or only one of them can pass us.
That leave MTL as the only other team that could take that 2nd spot that we have no direct control over.
As bad as that last second tie was, we are in a better position and basically hold our own fate today as far as I am seeing numbers wise? Every game from here is a wildcard/knockout/playoff match. I don't see Miami without Messi nor Charlotte winning 4 in a row anyway, so really all I'm worried about is our play. Win and we are getting in other results be damned, they are only there to make things more comfortable.
And after this season I am baffled we are in this position at all. Happy but.... absolutely baffled lol.
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