A fellow adherent to super advanced game theory, I see.
Will We Be Able To Climb Out Of Our Hole And Make The Playoffs?
- Thread starter NYCFCFan10
- Start date
You should read my monograph on Tic Tac Toe.
I hope that we can achieve the playoffs, but in the meantime for the first time I am very happy that the MLS hasn't the relegations...................
People love to bring up last year's Revs to explain how easy it is to recover from a crushing streak of futility in this league. They lost 8 games in a row, then recovered to make the playoffs and attain the Final game, losing out only to the champion Galaxy.
When their 8-game losing streak ended they had played 20 games and had 23 points (7-11-2).
For us to have 23 points after 20 games we need to earn 16 points in our next 8 (2.0 PPG).
To date we have averaged 0.58 points per game.
We need to win 5 lose 2 and draw 1 in our next 8 to climb to be as good as New England was last year after they lost 8 in a row.
And then after that, New England went 10-2-2 for 32 points in their last 14 games (2.29 PPG).
Like I said, at some point math takes over.
To be fair, the Revs finished second. We don't need to finish second. But it's a tough road ahead.
When their 8-game losing streak ended they had played 20 games and had 23 points (7-11-2).
For us to have 23 points after 20 games we need to earn 16 points in our next 8 (2.0 PPG).
To date we have averaged 0.58 points per game.
We need to win 5 lose 2 and draw 1 in our next 8 to climb to be as good as New England was last year after they lost 8 in a row.
And then after that, New England went 10-2-2 for 32 points in their last 14 games (2.29 PPG).
Like I said, at some point math takes over.
To be fair, the Revs finished second. We don't need to finish second. But it's a tough road ahead.
More math, this time a bit less daunting but still bracing:
Last year. the East had 10 teams, just like now, except a different mix of course. The sixth place team Philadelphia had 42 points. So lets say this year 42 points is necessary for sixth again. Could be higher or lower but it's a guide.
We need 35 points in our last 22 games (1.59 PPG) to get to 42.
For example, 10 wins, 7 losses, and 5 ties.
11-8-3 (or 11-9-2) gets us there, as does 12 wins and any combination of ties and losses.
If we only win 9, we're allowed only 5 losses and need 8 ties.
If we win 8, we can get to 42 points if we lose once.
So 10 wins, 7 losses, and 5 ties seems to me to be the easiest path to 42 points.
Which would mean we are allowed to lose 7 times the rest of the year (22 games).
We lost 7 times in our first 12 games.
Edited to fix math regarding 8 win scenario.
Last year. the East had 10 teams, just like now, except a different mix of course. The sixth place team Philadelphia had 42 points. So lets say this year 42 points is necessary for sixth again. Could be higher or lower but it's a guide.
We need 35 points in our last 22 games (1.59 PPG) to get to 42.
For example, 10 wins, 7 losses, and 5 ties.
11-8-3 (or 11-9-2) gets us there, as does 12 wins and any combination of ties and losses.
If we only win 9, we're allowed only 5 losses and need 8 ties.
If we win 8, we can get to 42 points if we lose once.
So 10 wins, 7 losses, and 5 ties seems to me to be the easiest path to 42 points.
Which would mean we are allowed to lose 7 times the rest of the year (22 games).
We lost 7 times in our first 12 games.
Edited to fix math regarding 8 win scenario.
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To be honest. I get onto the subway ever game hoping for the best expecting the worst. Then I get up and watch the next match or get back on the subway. Do I want us to win and go to the playoffs? Yes. Will it affect my support for this team? Not one bit.
Playoffs were out of the question once we shit the bed against Philly and Chicago, the two easiest teams we will face all year. Your scenario is mathematically correct but doesn't take into account that we are playing MORE difficult teams for the rest of the year. At this point, I just want to see that we are headed in the right direction for next year
Finally, let's check how important the next 6 games before Lampard presumably arrives will be in a quest to reach 42 points. Obviously you could play around with the specifics of all the scenarios below to reach the hypothetical 42.
The Streak Continues - No Wins
Projected next 6 games 0-3-3
To reach 42 points after Lampard arrives 9-2-5
Modified Disaster Scenario - One Win
We get a win but otherwise stay the course
Projected next 6 games 1-2-3
To reach 42 points after Lampard arrives 9-5-2
Major Course Change
Projected next 6 games 2-2-2
To reach 42 points after Lampard arrives 8-5-3
The Titanic Turns In Time To Avoid the Iceberg
Projected next 6 games 3-2-1
To reach 42 points after Lampard arrives 7-2-7 or 8-7-1
Superman Reverses The Earth's Spin and Undoes Lois Lane's Death
Projected next 6 games 3-1-2
To reach 42 points after Lampard arrives 7-7-3
Bottom line: I think T Tom in Fairfield CT is right. Playoffs are a dream. Math.
If you were saving your pennies to pay for playoff tickets, consider splurging on something else. Or don't. it's your money.
The Streak Continues - No Wins
Projected next 6 games 0-3-3
To reach 42 points after Lampard arrives 9-2-5
Modified Disaster Scenario - One Win
We get a win but otherwise stay the course
Projected next 6 games 1-2-3
To reach 42 points after Lampard arrives 9-5-2
Major Course Change
Projected next 6 games 2-2-2
To reach 42 points after Lampard arrives 8-5-3
The Titanic Turns In Time To Avoid the Iceberg
Projected next 6 games 3-2-1
To reach 42 points after Lampard arrives 7-2-7 or 8-7-1
Superman Reverses The Earth's Spin and Undoes Lois Lane's Death
Projected next 6 games 3-1-2
To reach 42 points after Lampard arrives 7-7-3
Bottom line: I think T Tom in Fairfield CT is right. Playoffs are a dream. Math.
If you were saving your pennies to pay for playoff tickets, consider splurging on something else. Or don't. it's your money.
Would anyone really be shocked if this team, even adding Lamps + another older 'stud' DP + some other complementary parts, went the way of Chivas USA in their 1st yr (4 w-22 l-6 t)? I can't say I would. Even adding some 'stars' will not just all of a sudden make everything click IMO. Over a 1/3 of the season has gone by with 1 win to show for it, against likely the softest part of the schedule. There isn't a single team on the upcoming fixture schedule who anyone could say 'yea, we are better than them.' PHI and MTL have surpassed us easily at this point. It will take a huge sea change for this team to win 6-7 games this yr, let alone 10.
It shouldn't change anyone's support of the team if they are truly invested of course, but yea, playoffs, or even challenging for them in September, seem like a pipe dream at this juncture. Which means they should maybe stop worrying about bringing over brand name old guys and start looking into building around some younger hidden gems for 2016-beyond.
It shouldn't change anyone's support of the team if they are truly invested of course, but yea, playoffs, or even challenging for them in September, seem like a pipe dream at this juncture. Which means they should maybe stop worrying about bringing over brand name old guys and start looking into building around some younger hidden gems for 2016-beyond.
The only people who think we can still make the playoffs haven't looked at our remaining schedule. Which of the following teams do we roll over on our 12 game winning streak? NE, DC, columbus, RB, Dallas, Vancouver, or LA Galaxy?
I will stick with my pre-season prediction that both NYCFC and OCSC both make the playoffs from east as a 6th and 5th seed. The season is a very long one, and I still say with the exception of this last RSL game, and the Redbull game, we really have not played all that bad overall. Sure we have made some stupid mistakes in a short span during some games, but overall, we are bad but not as bad as our record says we are. I don't care what Bill Parcels says....(you are what your record says you are).....I think we will be A OK come seasons end and make the playoffs.
Do my eyes deceive me, or does looking at the regular season schedule show us playing the Galaxy only one time, away in LA? That seems weird.
we only play western conference teams once each year
The next two games will be big. If we can get 4 points minimum out of philly and Montreal we could set ourselves up for a chance. If we get 1 or 0 it's likely over before July.
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