Will We Be Able To Climb Out Of Our Hole And Make The Playoffs?
- Thread starter NYCFCFan10
- Start date
Three games ago I did the math concerning the likelihood of us making the playoffs The key take away for me was that we could not afford to wait for Lampard or other reinforcements before we start winning. We were in too deep a hole.
Now that we have Won twice and tied once in the next three games, the road is still tough but nowhere near as hopeless.
First, I pointed out that to be as good as the Revs were last year after their 8-game losing streak, we needed 16 points in our next 8 games. With 7 in three we now need 9 in the next 5 to reach that goal. Still tough, but at least we are on track (and yes I know the competition gets a lot tougher).
http://nycfcforums.com/index.php?th...-and-make-the-playoffs.3021/page-2#post-73989
Second I figured (with some assumptions thrown in) that we could only lose 7 times in our last 22 games after losing 7 of the first 12. If those assumptions remain, we can now lose 7 of the last 19 after losing 7 of the first 15. That is a much less steep improvement.
http://nycfcforums.com/index.php?th...-and-make-the-playoffs.3021/page-2#post-73989
Third, I figured that we needed what I termed a major course change before Lampard arrived to have a realistic chance of reaching the playoffs. The major course change involved going 2-2-2 in the next six games (it now seems it might be 7 games from then before he plays, but it still is not firm either way). We are already 2-0-1 so the major course change is basically in place with just one tie in the next 3 games (Toronto away, Red Bulls home, Montreal away). Now we would still need to play much better than we have after that, something like 8-5-3, but the team has dug itself out of hopelessness.
http://nycfcforums.com/index.php?th...-and-make-the-playoffs.3021/page-2#post-74009
I'm not saying playoffs are more likely than not yet. But it's no longer insane to hope for them, and a lot depends on the new players he will/might get in July and how quickly they mesh.
Now that we have Won twice and tied once in the next three games, the road is still tough but nowhere near as hopeless.
First, I pointed out that to be as good as the Revs were last year after their 8-game losing streak, we needed 16 points in our next 8 games. With 7 in three we now need 9 in the next 5 to reach that goal. Still tough, but at least we are on track (and yes I know the competition gets a lot tougher).
http://nycfcforums.com/index.php?th...-and-make-the-playoffs.3021/page-2#post-73989
Second I figured (with some assumptions thrown in) that we could only lose 7 times in our last 22 games after losing 7 of the first 12. If those assumptions remain, we can now lose 7 of the last 19 after losing 7 of the first 15. That is a much less steep improvement.
http://nycfcforums.com/index.php?th...-and-make-the-playoffs.3021/page-2#post-73989
Third, I figured that we needed what I termed a major course change before Lampard arrived to have a realistic chance of reaching the playoffs. The major course change involved going 2-2-2 in the next six games (it now seems it might be 7 games from then before he plays, but it still is not firm either way). We are already 2-0-1 so the major course change is basically in place with just one tie in the next 3 games (Toronto away, Red Bulls home, Montreal away). Now we would still need to play much better than we have after that, something like 8-5-3, but the team has dug itself out of hopelessness.
http://nycfcforums.com/index.php?th...-and-make-the-playoffs.3021/page-2#post-74009
I'm not saying playoffs are more likely than not yet. But it's no longer insane to hope for them, and a lot depends on the new players he will/might get in July and how quickly they mesh.
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I love your analysis and also wonder how this year's competition stacks up against the Revs run. IOW might we need fewer points as the west is so much better than the east this year (at least so far).
You've nailed the quantitative analysis. The qualitative analysis question is can we beat 4 out of Orlando, NJ, Columbus, Montreal, Philly, Chicago?
With our new additions I'd say yes easily to Philly and Chicago. That leaves beating 2 of the remaining 4 over the remaining 20 games.
As you said, "it's no longer insane to hope (so)."
After looking over Klinsmann's provisional Gold Cup roster (and predicting his final 23) our July matches/results could be the boost we really need to cement ourselves in playoff position.
Toronto will most likely not have Bradley or Altidore. I doubt that Nguyen or Agudelo will make the final roster, but NE won't have Jermaine Jones due to injury. Orlando hopefully won't have Shea at the end of the month.
We will lose Mix, but gain Lampard, Iraola, Angelino, and hopefully Pirlo...add that to my bold prediction of an undefeated June (or as I'm calling it: "summertime and the winning's easy") and things could really look up for our club.
Just watched the Orlando DC match. If we got PK calls like that we'd have 8 wins and have no problem making playoffs.
I am yet to understand how it's legal to wipe Villa out entirely so long as you get a slight touch on the ball concurrently or even after.
If nothing else, he should have had a pk based on the dangerous nature of that tackle in the box late in the Impact match. That was really fucking dumb. People should be red carded for that, whether they touch the ball or not.
Like, good for Orlando City for being able to start this well with an expansion team, but it's unreal how lucky they are.
I'm pretty sure that all of Kaka's goals are penalties except for the deflection that he scored against us.
The Revs were amazingly good outside of the losing streak. They started 7-3-2 and ended 10-2-2. We won't need as many points as they got, and almost certainly will end up with less. They earned 55. My assumption for the original analysis was that a playoff spot in the East will require 42. I could see that varying by as much as 3 easily and 6 in the extreme, but I still think it's a solid benchmark.
Quant analysis is a lot easier than qualitative, but it still has its place.
FWIW in MLS fantasy league he earned 5 points for a goal last night but lost 2 points for missing the PK.
Its nice to have won these past two games, but we really wasted the soft part of our schedule. Its brutal for the rest of the year. I hope we can get at least four from the remaining Montreal games, but we are going to have to improve dramatically to get enough points against DC, NJ, NE, etc.
The wild card in all your analysis is that we are going to have a very different team for the second half. The bump up from Grabalouchy to Lampard, and from Allen/Wingert/Brovsky to our rumored new fullbacks is huge. HUGE. HUGE. You are talking about basically non-contributing players going to strengths on the team. And that is not even taking into account DP3. If we get a striker, holy crap throw the math out the window.
The wild card in all your analysis is that we are going to have a very different team for the second half. The bump up from Grabalouchy to Lampard, and from Allen/Wingert/Brovsky to our rumored new fullbacks is huge. HUGE. HUGE. You are talking about basically non-contributing players going to strengths on the team. And that is not even taking into account DP3. If we get a striker, holy crap throw the math out the window.
Tom, while I agree with you that we really shot ourselves in the foot early this year with some of the crappy teams we have faced so far but let's not forget in MLS, not a whole lot separates DC United TFC, RedBull, and some of the top table teams in the west, and NYCFC. Teams are very close in this league. Any given game we can beat anyone, maybe with the exception of Seattle who have more quality then any other team in my opinion. But again NYCFC will be massively different from the team we saw early in the year come mid to late july. It should be very fun to see what happens.
Completely agreed. How do you balance the offset of a much tougher schedule against an [expected] much better team?
Hell, how do you even analyze the game in Montreal in 3 weeks? We outplayed them on Saturday, but both teams have been considerably better at home. Is that enough to overcome the advantage we had Saturday? ?!?!?!
The numbers and the quant analysis provide a useful framework to structure the subjective qualitative analysis.
Maybe I'm Naive but the quality of new recruits on their way coupled with the recent better form and I'm expecting to make it.
No reason not to believe so. Teams ahead of us are playing much worse than we are.
I agree. I think we have been very unlucky through the first ⅓ of the season but our luck is starting to turn. On the other hand Orlando has been far too lucky (like someone said, Kaká has 5 or 6 PK goals already; we've had 1 through 15 matches) and I think their luck will change as well. Other clubs ahead of us right now are starting to play poorly too, such as DC, NJ (and NE lost Jones for an extended period). I believe we will just make it to that 6th place playoff spot and maybe, just maybe, make some noise in the playoffs. I hope we can push on in the Open Cup as well. I'll be satisfied and call it a good 1st year with a playoff spot and a couple wins in the Open Cup.
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