By The Numbers: What We've Done, What Must We Do

[mgarbowski]

If we win this week, we'll get closer, possibly 25% or slightly better. It also wouldn't hurt to have Impact lose. Those are basically the two games that matter most for us right now. I'm writing off Chicago and Philly, as they have roughly 1 in 4 chances at best. Yes, this logic is only allowed here.

Agreed about writing off Philly and Chicago. We're ahead of both on PPG, although with Philly the difference in infinitesmal. But the season is a failure if we don't stay ahead of both. Then I would add New England to the list of teams we would like to see lose with Orlando and Montreal. They're sitting between Montreal and Orlando on PPG. Since they're playing Chicago I'm rooting for a tie. Failing that I'd hope for a Chicago upset. As long as we expect te Fire to tank we might as well hope their few remaining wins come at the expense of teams just above us. Among Montreal, Orlando and New England we need to over come 2, or hope for bigger falls from Columbus or Toronto. Columbus is second in points but only 4th in PPG, and we have 2 games against to come so we theoretically could pull them back.

 

[Andres Emilio Soto]

Wow Mark! Freaking awesome post and thank you for taking out time to create this! I guess at the end of the day and until it's mathematically calculated on how other teams perform, NYCFC still has it's own fate in its hands.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

Wow Mark! Freaking awesome post and thank you for taking out time to create this! I guess at the end of the day and until it's mathematically calculated on how other teams perform, NYCFC still has it's own fate in its hands.

The magic loss number is actually still 12 right now. But that would require all of a lot of extremely unlikely results elsewhere and winning some very particular games.

Realistically and without doing the math beyond estimating, we absolutely can only afford to lose only maybe one or two of our "6 pointers".

 

[Sabo]

To be clear, I'm not using past performance to predict NYCFC's future performance. I'm not preedicting NYCFC's future performance at all. and the points you make about the substantial lineup changes are good. I am using past performance league-wide, going back multiple years, to predict the cutoff point for 6th place.
I think optimism is good. I'm just trying to guage how optimistic we have to be to make the playoffs. As noted, 7-6-1 probably gets us there and that's only one more win than loss. Measure that against our schedule and decide for yourself. I find it hard to be optimistic here but I am hopeful. Subtle distinction but a real one to me.
On the other hand, I don't put much faith in arguments based on imagining the world if one very common, normal soccer thing that happened 20 weeks ago didn't happen. Also, in my opinion, looking at the point table when there is a 5-game-played spread among teams in the Eastern conference is not very useful, and I prefer to focus on PPG until that evens out. But if you disagree that's cool. Cheers!

First of all, your model and spreadsheet is fantastic. You are spot on about PPG being the key stat when looking at how teams are doing in comparison to one another, but I don't agree with the 42 point assumption. The difference between 2015 and past MLS years is that the conferences are not balanced this year. Think about the NBA and the difference between the number of wins it takes to make the playoffs from the East vs the West. The East is much weaker than the west this year and I am optimistic because I believe the 6th worst team in MLS is going to get the 6th seed in the East (only 1 West team will have fewer points than the 6th place East team). That scenario is pretty much the status quo this season. Look at the number of points it takes to be the 6th worst team since MLS went to a 34 game schedule. 2011 - 39. 2012 - 37. 2013 - 46. 2014 - 39. I think 2013 is an outlier because DC was record awful, but my assumption is that the 6th place spot in the East is going to be closer to 39 than 42 because the MLS has not seen a season where one conference is so much more clearly worse than the other before 2015.

October 25th with all Eastern Conference teams playing the final game at the same time is probably going to be an exciting day.

 

[mgarbowski]

First of all, your model and spreadsheet is fantastic. You are spot on about PPG being the key stat when looking at how teams are doing in comparison to one another, but I don't agree with the 42 point assumption. The difference between 2015 and past MLS years is that the conferences are not balanced this year. Think about the NBA and the difference between the number of wins it takes to make the playoffs from the East vs the West. The East is much weaker than the west this year and I am optimistic because I believe the 6th worst team in MLS is going to get the 6th seed in the East (only 1 West team will have fewer points than the 6th place East team). That scenario is pretty much the status quo this season. Look at the number of points it takes to be the 6th worst team since MLS went to a 34 game schedule. 2011 - 39. 2012 - 37. 2013 - 46. 2014 - 39. I think 2013 is an outlier because DC was record awful, but my assumption is that the 6th place spot in the East is going to be closer to 39 than 42 because the MLS has not seen a season where one conference is so much more clearly worse than the other before 2015.

October 25th with all Eastern Conference teams playing the final game at the same time is probably going to be an exciting day.

Fair points and well done. Although, right now there are 2 West teams in the unified bottom 6 measured by PPG: Houston and Colorado at 1.2. NE is 7th at 1.23 and RSL and MTL tied for 8th at 1.24 in the reverse PPG standings. In any event, I openly concede my projection is part math, part guess and light on true science/statistics.
I will reiterate that I've been measuring the 6th place East cutoff line since week 12 and the PPG for that team has projected to 42 points steadily over the last 8 weeks. I haven't kept records but it's true. The team has changed but the PPG has hovered right around the same level. It can start dropping but it hasn't yet. And the 6th place line is the key one because we are currently below it. A team above the line can look at the 7th place team and think we just have to stay above them. But a team like us below the line will only become the 7th place team if we overcome the 7th place team. We have climb above 6th place and stay there.
Finally, the final number might be very fickle. The difference between wins or losses by the 6th and 7th place East teams on the last week of the season could mean a 6-point swing in the cutoff line (or it can mean very little as another team slides into the key slot) so we're really subject to random events.

 

[Sabo]

We agree completely.

 

[LionNYC]

If we win all the remaining games, I think we'll make the playoffs.

I think if we score more goals than our opponents in each of the remaining games, I think we'll make the playoffs. But I'm no expert.

 

[The Toe]

I think if we score more goals than our opponents in each of the remaining games, I think we'll make the playoffs. But I'm no expert.

Makes you wonder what could have been -- John Madden and Ian Joy in the booth calling NYCFC games together.

 

[LionNYC]

Makes you wonder what could have been -- John Madden and Ian Joy in the booth calling NYCFC games together.

Surprised John Madden didn't take the job. He wouldn't have to travel anywhere since YES uses the green screen. Though they're both color commentators and not play by play announcers.

 

[mgarbowski]

That was not only a fun game to watch, it had a huge effect on our playoff chances. Let's start with the PPG standings:

Tied with Orlando for 7th. One spot out of the last playoff spot, on a projected 2.72 point deficit behind New England. Last week that deficit was 6.12. If we lost our PPG would be 1.0,and Orlando's would be 1.29, putting them in 6th, with NE in 7th and us in 8th. The projected deficit between 6th place Orlando and us would have been 9.7 points. So winning instead of losing meant a 7-point swing in the projected deficit between 6th place and us.

Like I said, this win was huge.

The 6th place target dropped slightly, and I'm continuing to say 42 points is where that 6th place teams needs to be.



The line after RSL denotes our low point. We just hit a new high on PPG at 1.143 if you discount the first 4 weeks of the season as too low a sample to have any meaning. Since our low point our PPG over 9 games is 1.89. If we keep that up over the remaining 13 games that's 48.56 points and that's comfortable playoff range. That's also a huge assumption. Our team is very changed for the better while the schedule gets much harder.

To reach 42 Points we need to get 1.385 PPG over the remaining 13.
To reach 45 points we need to get 1.615 PPG over the remaining 13.
To reach 40 points we need to get 1.231 PPG over the remaining 13.

6 W 4L 3T gets us to 45 points
6W 5L 2T gets us to 44 points
5 W 4L 4T gets us to 43 points
6 W 6L 1T gets us to 43 points
5 W 5L 3T gets us to 42 points
5 W 6L 2T gets us to 41 points

Remaining schedule:

Next week is again huge. If we lose Montreal's Projected Point lead over us is 11.22 Points. If we win that lead is only 1.22. If we lose Montreal could be out of reach and our path to the playoffs could be limited to having to overcome Orlando and New England both. If we win then we open that up to beating any 2 of NE, ORL, and MTL, and it's always nice to have options. After Montreal 9 of the next 10 games are against tougher opponents than Montreal, and 6 of those 9 are away.
Finally, after next week we do not have games against our playoff rivals again until the last two weeks of the season, although if we beat Columbus twice we might pull them close enough.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

That was not only a fun game to watch, it had a huge effect on our playoff chances. Let's start with the PPG standings:
View attachment 3125
Tied with Orlando for 7th. One spot out of the last playoff spot, on a projected 2.72 point deficit behind New England. Last week that deficit was 6.12. If we lost our PPG would be 1.0,and Orlando's would be 1.29, putting them in 6th, with NE in 7th and us in 8th. The projected deficit between 6th place Orlando and us would have been 9.7 points. So winning instead of losing meant a 7-point swing in the projected deficit between 6th place and us.

Like I said, this win was huge.

The 6th place target dropped slightly, and I'm continuing to say 42 points is where that 6th place teams needs to be.

View attachment 3126

The line after RSL denotes our low point. We just hit a new high on PPG at 1.143 if you discount the first 4 weeks of the season as too low a sample to have any meaning. Since our low point our PPG over 9 games is 1.89. If we keep that up over the remaining 13 games that's 48.56 points and that's comfortable playoff range. That's also a huge assumption. Our team is very changed for the better while the schedule gets much harder.

To reach 42 Points we need to get 1.385 PPG over the remaining 13.
To reach 45 points we need to get 1.615 PPG over the remaining 13.
To reach 40 points we need to get 1.231 PPG over the remaining 13.

6 W 4L 3T gets us to 45 points
6W 5L 2T gets us to 44 points
5 W 4L 4T gets us to 43 points
6 W 6L 1T gets us to 43 points
5 W 5L 3T gets us to 42 points
5 W 6L 2T gets us to 41 points

Remaining schedule:
View attachment 3127
Next week is again huge. If we lose Montreal's Projected Point lead over us is 11.22 Points. If we win that lead is only 1.22. If we lose Montreal could be out of reach and our path to the playoffs could be limited to having to overcome Orlando and New England both. If we win then we open that up to beating any 2 of NE, ORL, and MTL, and it's always nice to have options. After Montreal 9 of the next 10 games are against tougher opponents than Montreal, and 6 of those 9 are away.
Finally, after next week we do not have games against our playoff rivals again until the last two weeks of the season, although if we beat Columbus twice we might pull them close enough.

Just eyeballing the schedule, my plan for us is to win all of our home matches. Those are pretty much a necessity for us. That gets us to 42. If we can steal a win away (NJRB please), then we're in.

The worst thing about this is the simple fact we are pretty well guaranteed to lose some of these games, and it may look fairly bleak if the other results go against us. I am just trying to keep that 45 target at the forefront of my mind so that I can karmically contribute to our squad's focus.

Sending out vibes to ignore the weekly table and aim for 45.

Eta: I know you like the 42 number, but our friends at playoff status seem to disagree. I'm thinking they see a better finish to the end of the year for the teams we're battling given their weak schedule.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/mls/nycityfcwhatif.html

 

[mgarbowski]

Following up on Columbus. We can catch them if we beat them twice. Pretend our two games against them are our next 2 games. If we were to win both we'd be ahead of them on PPG 44.3 to 43.9. If we split they would have an 8.25 projected point differential. If we win one and tie one that drops to 3.9. Anything worse is, well worse than the split and not worth thinking about.

 

[Tom in Fairfield CT]

So if we can only lose about 5 games, you have to assume losses from galaxy, Dallas, Vancouver away and both against DC. All other games are basically must win, and a few ties sprinkled in. Tall order

 

[mgarbowski]

So if we can only lose about 5 games, you have to assume losses from galaxy, Dallas, Vancouver away and both against DC. All other games are basically must win, and a few ties sprinkled in. Tall order

Pretty much, but if we keep ties to a minimum, 6-6-1 gets 43 points and probably in, and 5-6-2 is 41 points which will get us in if Orlando and NE fade.

 

[413Blue]

So if we can only lose about 5 games, you have to assume losses from galaxy, Dallas, Vancouver away and both against DC. All other games are basically must win, and a few ties sprinkled in. Tall order

I know i'm the optimist on these boards, but I really don't like making assumptions either way. MLS is not like the premier league where the top of the table teams hardly lose outside the big 4. League leaders often seem to drop points against lower ranked teams. I'm not saying that those matches are toss-ups, but to assume losses in all five of those games is a mistake, especially considering that we are playing better now.
Now i'll bring out the extreme optimist in me, and say that we will be closer to 15 than to 0 in those five matches mentioned. Worst case scenario we end up with 4-7 points imo. That makes the rest of the schedule less of a tall order, but we still need to perform very well just to squeak into the playoffs. A poor stretch will obviously doom us so we can't afford to wait to integrate all the newbs into lineup, they need to step right in and perform.
If you take into consideration recent performance, we have more points out of our last 8 games than almost everybody in the league except Dallas. I'd say teams should be fearing us right now!

 

[Midas Mulligan]

mgarbowski - I found a better site for all of this hypothesizing and number crunching.

It has pretty awesome functionality, and a bit more color on their methods.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/NYCFC.html

ETA: The sweet spot actually seems to be 43 for us right now based on their sims. That gets us to a roughly 65% chance.

 

[mgarbowski]

mgarbowski - I found a better site for all of this hypothesizing and number crunching.

It has pretty awesome functionality, and a bit more color on their methods.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/NYCFC.html

You're intentionally sabotaging my afternoon work productivity, aren't you?

 

[Midas Mulligan]

You're intentionally sabotaging my afternoon work productivity, aren't you?

Yes, but I'm doing it to myself, as well. It's amazing the stuff I find interesting when the alternative is work.

 

[forfalskning]

Nice site Midas Mulligan

 

[Sabo]

Following up on Columbus. We can catch them if we beat them twice. Pretend our two games against them are our next 2 games. If we were to win both we'd be ahead of them on PPG 44.3 to 43.9. If we split they would have an 8.25 projected point differential. If we win one and tie one that drops to 3.9. Anything worse is, well worse than the split and not worth thinking about.

Columbus is the only team in the east that has to play 4 western teams and play us twice. With good results in those games we can catch them. Every game against a team ahead of us in the standings who we can catch mtl, ne, col is a huge game just like the orl game was.

We were such a dramatically better team with pirlo and mix on the fieldinstead of ballouchy and calle. That quality is going to carry through the season. Nate silver has an nba model in which having good players healthy and available to play has a huge impact on likelihood to win and make playoffs. Something like that would work well for mls. Likelihood of winning with pirlo mix lampard iraola and a ngelino on the field is more significant than past perfornance without those players
. Huge game against montreal this weekend.