NYCFC Season Discussion 2023: We Know What We Are, But Not What We May Be

[gbservis]

I think they hoped/believed Talles should have raised his production from 7 goals in 2022 to say 15 in 202. Then you have 27 (2022 actual) plus 8 more from Talles plus maybe 7- 10 new from the rest of the team (which happened) and that's a 42-45 goal team, which is a clear playoff team. It's still not that good, but it is a playoff team.
But Talles did not grow at all and instead he regressed. We tried everything during the first 24 games: True 9, False 9, Santi as 9. Could another manager have unlocked him? What was supposed to work? What was left untried? After the break Magno sat most of the first 5 games. I get the criticism of that. But when he played the next 4 games he still scored only 1 goal.
The team's fate was set with the February 25 roster and a tepid summer window that lost the team's existing high scorer and did not add a single proven double-digit goal scorer.

I would also add that they thought Santi would continue to improve and chip in a few more as well. Assumed growth is the only justification for making Santi a DP. Given Santi's age, trajectory over his first few seasons with us, and the high quality of his '22 season I think it was a reasonable assumption, it just didn't work out that way.

 

[ZYanksRule]

I would also add that they thought Santi would continue to improve and chip in a few more as well. Assumed growth is the only justification for making Santi a DP. Given Santi's age, trajectory over his first few seasons with us, and the high quality of his '22 season I think it was a reasonable assumption, it just didn't work out that way.

I agree with both of you that Cushing had to set up defensively because that was the strength of the roster. But the regression of Santi and Talles this year is what should cost him his job.

 

[mgarbowski]

I agree with both of you that Cushing had to set up defensively because that was the strength of the roster. But the regression of Santi and Talles this year is what should cost him his job.

Fair

 

[Marito]

Also, I would argue that Santi is a square peg for a round hole, in the sense that he's not a 10 and cannot set tempo or organize the team. If we had added a real 10 like Puig or Carles Gil, even if that person is not a 15-goal a season player, we would have scored at least 15-20 more goals IMHO.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Also, I would argue that Santi is a square peg for a round hole, in the sense that he's not a 10 and cannot set tempo or organize the team. If we had added a real 10 like Puig or Carles Gil, even if that person is not a 15-goal a season player, we would have scored at least 15-20 more goals IMHO.

I think Santi can be a 10 in the right system, just not sure its NYCFC's

 

[Marito]

I think Santi can be a 10 in the right system, just not sure its NYCFC's

Yeah. I guess I'm a sucker for the classic 10 that it's supposed to be a dying breed in most elite leagues but seems to still be doing well in MLS

 

[gbservis]

I agree with both of you that Cushing had to set up defensively because that was the strength of the roster. But the regression of Santi and Talles this year is what should cost him his job.

I would lump Sands into that possible Cushing-caused regression conversation too. Comparing his stats from 2021 to 2023 most are about equal, pass % is 89% in both seasons. Duel % is about the same at 59.5% in '21 and 58.6% in '23. There are however two areas with a noticeable drop-off and I think both could point to Cushing not setting up the team to get the most out of our best players. On offense, Sands had 90 "accurate long balls" in 21, and he only has 66 this year. On defense, Sands went from 43 interceptions in '21 to only 24 this season. Playing an offense with less long diagonal passing and a defense with a lower line and less pressing takes away Sands's biggest strength which is his ability to read the game.

All stats are from MLS.com and I should note that Sands currently has one less game played in '23 than he did in '21 but I doubt he closes either of the gaps much in the last game of the season.

 

[ZYanksRule]

I would lump Sands into that possible Cushing-caused regression conversation too. Comparing his stats from 2021 to 2023 most are about equal, pass % is 89% in both seasons. Duel % is about the same at 59.5% in '21 and 58.6% in '23. There are however two areas with a noticeable drop-off and I think both could point to Cushing not setting up the team to get the most out of our best players. On offense, Sands had 90 "accurate long balls" in 21, and he only has 66 this year. On defense, Sands went from 43 interceptions in '21 to only 24 this season. Playing an offense with less long diagonal passing and a defense with a lower line and less pressing takes away Sands's biggest strength which is his ability to read the game.

All stats are from MLS.com and I should note that Sands currently has one less game played in '23 than he did in '21 but I doubt he closes either of the gaps much in the last game of the season.

There are very few young guys who haven't regressed under Cushing. Pereira was probably the biggest one, and he's gone. The lack of progression with our young players is probably what's going to cost Cushing his job. It's pretty clear that this was a developmental season, and too many guys did not develop.

 

[413Blue]

I would lump Sands into that possible Cushing-caused regression conversation too. Comparing his stats from 2021 to 2023 most are about equal, pass % is 89% in both seasons. Duel % is about the same at 59.5% in '21 and 58.6% in '23. There are however two areas with a noticeable drop-off and I think both could point to Cushing not setting up the team to get the most out of our best players. On offense, Sands had 90 "accurate long balls" in 21, and he only has 66 this year. On defense, Sands went from 43 interceptions in '21 to only 24 this season. Playing an offense with less long diagonal passing and a defense with a lower line and less pressing takes away Sands's biggest strength which is his ability to read the game.

All stats are from MLS.com and I should note that Sands currently has one less game played in '23 than he did in '21 but I doubt he closes either of the gaps much in the last game of the season.

Tbf, I think Sands had stalled and regressed beginning late in the 2021 season.

 

[SoupInNYC]

There are very few young guys who haven't regressed under Cushing. Pereira was probably the biggest one, and he's gone. The lack of progression with our young players is probably what's going to cost Cushing his job. It's pretty clear that this was a developmental season, and too many guys did not develop.

I'm not disagreeing with you, because it does seem like so many have regressed, but just wanted to shout out one other player who I think has progressed, and that has been Haak.

He's really found himself in that LCB role and has played well there, in a manner that to be honest, I didn't think he had in him.

Jasson has also come on somewhat, but I'm not really sure I'd call it progressing a whole ton.

 

[ZYanksRule]

I'm not disagreeing with you, because it does seem like so many have regressed, but just wanted to shout out one other player who I think has progressed, and that has been Haak.

He's really found himself in that LCB role and has played well there, in a manner that to be honest, I didn't think he had in him.

Jasson has also come on somewhat, but I'm not really sure I'd call it progressing a whole ton.

Jasson and O'Toole have been fine this year, and I agree about Haak. But I do think Cushing has relied too much on the low-ceiling academy players, which he also did last year. I'd rather see a higher-upside player in Ilenic than Gray/O'Toole/Jasson.

 

[JayH]

Goals.
The 2022 team scored 56 goals.

Preseason Departures 29 (2022 goals)
Taty 13, Heber 8, Callens 5, Maxi 2, Gloster 1
Remainders 27 (2022 goals)
Pereira 8, Talles 7, Thiago 5, Santi 4, Keaton 2, Chanot 1
Preseason Additions 0 (2022 goals)
Segal 0, Alfaro 0, Ilenic 0, Cufre 0, Ledezma 0

Then a month into the season Thiago left after scoring 1 goal, so subtract 4 bringing the adjusted 2022 total goals scored down to 23.

The roster was primed to score 0.68 goals per game based on 2022 production. They scored 1.04 before Leagues Cup. Some guys grew into bigger roles, or just had more minutes, and some kids who never scored before punched in a handful. A 54% increase over 2022 is probably as good as one could have expected. That was 71% of the season.

Late Season Transfers 4 (2022-23 goals - game adjusted)
Full season:
Bakrar 8, Martinez 8, Fernandez 3, Perea 2, Risa 0, Pereira -8
Adjusted for 10 games:
Bakrar 2.35, Martinez 2.35, Fernandez 0.88, Perea 0.59, Risa 0, Pereira -2.35
Adjusted Total 3.82. Call it 4.
I'm not including Maxi given how it worked out.

That's a roster that - adjusted when they left and arrived - brought 27 previous season goals into this team in 2023. The actual 2023 goal count is 34. Blood from a freaking stone.

This team was not built anywhere near adequate to make the playoffs. Only reason it was even close is an overriding focus on defense, which just generated fan complaints. But relying on offense to pull you through with this roster was insanity. The answer to the question of why Nick played so defensively is he looked at his roster and saw reality.

To repeat my position yet again: I'm OK with letting Nick go, but most of the arguments people make are nonsense. Zero evidence and unfalsifiable arguments have no persuasive value. The offensive potential of this roster was terrible on Day 1 and barely improved after the window.

I think they hoped/believed Talles should have raised his production from 7 goals in 2022 to say 15 in 2023. Then you have 27 (2022 actual) plus 8 more from Talles plus maybe 7- 10 new from the rest of the team (which happened) and that's a 42-45 goal team, which is a clear playoff team. It's still not that good, but it is a playoff team.
But Talles did not grow at all and instead he regressed. We tried everything during the first 24 games: True 9, False 9, Santi as 9. Could another manager have unlocked him? What was supposed to work? What was left untried? After the break Magno sat most of the first 5 games. I get the criticism of that. But when he played the next 4 games he still scored only 1 goal.
The team's fate was set with the February 25 roster and a tepid summer window that lost the team's existing high scorer and did not add a single proven double-digit goal scorer.

This is perfectly put. This was roster construction malpractice and I still don’t understand why our front office/owners decided to punt the season. It couldn’t be misplaced expectations because it was so clear and obvious this wasn’t a roster to compete. It couldn’t be because this was an anticipated rebuild season, because that’s not what it was. So the question remains why. My best guess is that the primary focus is the Stadium, and the product will not the be a priority until we are leading up to the opening. Until then, it’s the minimum. I only hope that CFG’s commitment to fielding winning clubs will rule at some point before then.

 

[ZYanksRule]

This is perfectly put. This was roster construction malpractice and I still don’t understand why our front office/owners decided to punt the season. It couldn’t be misplaced expectations because it was so clear and obvious this wasn’t a roster to compete. It couldn’t be because this was an anticipated rebuild season, because that’s not what it was. So the question remains why. My best guess is that the primary focus is the Stadium, and the product will not the be a priority until we are leading up to the opening. Until then, it’s the minimum. I only hope that CFG’s commitment to fielding winning clubs will rule at some point before then.

I think they thought Talles would develop into the No. 9 and carry the offense.

I believe they want to win in these next four years, they just made an extreme miscalculation on their offensive group this season. Had Talles been a 15-goal scorer (along with what Pereira was doing before he was bought), we'd have been right where we want to be.

 

[SoupInNYC]

I think they thought Talles would develop into the No. 9 and carry the offense.

I believe they want to win in these next four years, they just made an extreme miscalculation on their offensive group this season. Had Talles been a 15-goal scorer (along with what Pereira was doing before he was bought), we'd have been right where we want to be.

Right, I don't think they were punting, I think they just misjudged and were wrong.

And they were very wrong.

 

[JayH]

I think they thought Talles would develop into the No. 9 and carry the offense.

I believe they want to win in these next four years, they just made an extreme miscalculation on their offensive group this season. Had Talles been a 15-goal scorer (along with what Pereira was doing before he was bought), we'd have been right where we want to be.

If this season was to rest on Talles playing striker, that only confirms the point. I don’t think anyone thought that really would happen successfully - we didn’t, the coach didn’t, and even his teammates knew during the preseason that we needed a striker to compete. I hope you are correct about the next few years though - failing is usually not part of the mothership blueprint, but this season makes me nervous.

 

[ZYanksRule]

If this season was to rest on Talles playing striker, that only confirms the point. I don’t think anyone thought that really would happen successfully - we didn’t, the coach didn’t, and even his teammates knew during the preseason that we needed a striker to compete. I hope you are correct about the next few years though - failing is usually not part of the mothership blueprint, but this season makes me nervous.

We've memory-holed how good Talles was in the first half of last season. He finished the year with 10+ goals and 10+ assists in all comps. Yes almost all of that was with Taty, but I don't think it was completely insane to think a 21-year-old forward would grow in his game this season. Personally, I blame Talles more than I blame the organization. He has the skills and quality to score 15 goals in this league, but is an incredibly fragile player who gets frustrated and quits on himself far too easily.

 

[gbservis]

Here's a fun stat Gabby Pereira is still the leading scorer for the season.

Another thing that stuck out to me when looking at the season stats is that we didn't have a single substantial injury to a key player all season. For all the discussion about how unlucky we were with refs and close losses, we were incredibly lucky with key player health and yet we still struggled.

 

[ZYanksRule]

Here's a fun stat Gabby Pereira is still the leading scorer for the season.

Another thing that stuck out to me when looking at the season stats is that we didn't have a single substantial injury to a key player all season. For all the discussion about how unlucky we were with refs and close losses, we were incredibly lucky with key player health and yet we still struggled.

I think you have to count Maxi Moralez as a substantial injury to a key player, even though he only played a few games.

 

[JayH]

I think you have to count Maxi Moralez as a substantial injury to a key player, even though he only played a few games.

But it was a fluke that he even was able to rejoin us, not a sound or strategic roster move by the FO.

 

[Shwafta]

But it was a fluke that he even was able to rejoin us, not a sound or strategic roster move by the FO.

actually if anything the maxi move AWAY from the club was a fluke that wasn't supposed to happen