NYCFC Season Discussion 2023: We Know What We Are, But Not What We May Be

[LionNYC]

Best Possible Results for NYCFC on Matchday 36:
Charlotte lose vs. Toronto
Red Bulls lose at Cincinnati
Montreal lose vs. Houston
D.C. lose at Austin
Chicago tie/lose to Miami? (Pick your poison, I'd say Miami win)

PlayoffStatus.com has 21 cases for NYCFC to clinch the playoffs by the end of this weekend (Matchday 37). But they all involve NYCFC winning at D.C. and at least six other results also happening.

 

[mgarbowski]

So if we win out, don't we basically guarantee a spot assuming MTL loses a single game (Which, look at their schedule, they will lol.)

You mostly address it later on but if you want to compress it to a single statement:

NYCFC is guaranteed a spot if (1) NYCFC wins out AND EITHER (2) Montreal loses at least one game OR (3) EITHER Miami and Charlotte tie one of their games OR they split their games OR the team that sweeps the other loses or ties one other game.

If 1, 2 and 3 all happen NYCFC finishes 8th.
I think 1 is the hardest condition to meet. Not impossible, but NYC has only 1 Away win all year. Fortunately there are ways to qualify with 4 points, or even 3 but those each require more and more to go right.

 

[mgarbowski]

Chicago tie/lose to Miami? (Pick your poison, I'd say Miami win)

I lean that way also, but I'm afraid of rooting too strong for one, getting that result, and then regretting it.

Guarantee me that NYC beats DC on Saturday and I want Chicago to win, because then we can beat Chicago and finish ahead.
On the chance that NYC drops points this Saturday, we need Chicago to drop points somewhere else and they should beat Charlotte at home so this is the best chance..

 

[BC19]

Another weird quirk in all this is that DC play twice this week and that’s their season, they don’t play on Decision Day

 

[Advanced]

You mostly address it later on but if you want to compress it to a single statement:

NYCFC is guaranteed a spot if (1) NYCFC wins out AND EITHER (2) Montreal loses at least one game OR (3) EITHER Miami and Charlotte tie one of their games OR they split their games OR the team that sweeps the other loses or ties one other game.

If 1, 2 and 3 all happen NYCFC finishes 8th.
I think 1 is the hardest condition to meet. Not impossible, but NYC has only 1 Away win all year. Fortunately there are ways to qualify with 4 points, or even 3 but those each require more and more to go right.

I think we are different team today then we were most of the mid or early season. Even if that final OT goal to tie it up reminded me of the entire 2023 season so far, I feel like out of the teams fighting for these last 2 spots we have the best current form.

If we were the mid season team we would be on a 1-0-5 streak, not a 3-0-3 one. I wrongfully or not am fairly confident we should be favored to win both these games and have the momentum to do so I'm excited as hell.

But this will all crumble if we dont win at DC Saturday. A tie isn't the end of the world, but I really want us to control our own fate come Chicago. First time I see NYCFC really be in control of their destiny this season & I don't want it to last 7 days just to be over. Also I will be attending that Oct 21 game with my close friends on my birthday and so *badly* want that to be a game where we clinch a spot.

 

[canchon]

I think they need to get the 8 spot, otherwise it is play-in and done. They still can’t get results on the road.

 

[Advanced]

I think they need to get the 8 spot, otherwise it is play-in and done. They still can’t get results on the road.

That's fair, but I don't see us besting Cincinnati in a Best Of 3 two of which are on the road so I don't think it matters all that much. Just getting in the playoffs is more then what I expected at this point so I'll take a 9 seed.

Getting an extra playoff atmosphere game at home as the 8th seed would also be sweet and if we are the 8th seed it means we're going into the match on a winning streak.

Would be a fun game to attend. Wonder if it would be citi or yankee stadium?

 

[LIexpat]

Am I the only one who kind of wishes we don’t make the playoffs , I almost
want us to miss and we have a top to bottom clear out of staff and players.
My fear is we sneak into the playoffs and go on a mediocre post season run and everyone thinks it’s was a satisfactory end to the season and we get no major changes for next season

 

[mgarbowski]

Am I the only one who kind of wishes we don’t make the playoffs , I almost
want us to miss and we have a top to bottom clear out of staff and players.
My fear is we sneak into the playoffs and go on a mediocre post season run and everyone thinks it’s was a satisfactory end to the season and we get no major changes for next season

I think even if we miss the playoffs the only job that might be in jeopardy is Nick's and that is iffy.
I don't think they can blow up the roster given contracts and salary cap issues.

 

[KevinJRogers]

I don't think they can blow up the roster given contracts and salary cap issues.

I'm not sure they really want to, either. They committed to going young at the start of the season, despite all the risks, and they've stuck to it the whole year. I doubt they're going to reverse course now.

That being said, a couple players have clearly failed their auditions. There have been a couple surprises, too. On balance, I think we're a lot better now than we were the first half of the year. It's not hard to at least see the outlines of a really, really dangerous side.

 

[canchon]

I'm not sure they really want to, either. They committed to going young at the start of the season, despite all the risks, and they've stuck to it the whole year. I doubt they're going to reverse course now.

That being said, a couple players have clearly failed their auditions. There have been a couple surprises, too. On balance, I think we're a lot better now than we were the first half of the year. It's not hard to at least see the outlines of a really, really dangerous side.

Yup. Squint and you can see Santi pulling the strings, Julian and Talles with sauce on the wings, Bakrar being a bargain Taty, a solid backline and Parks/Sands as the 6 and the 8. The outline is there.

 

[KevinJRogers]

Yup. Squint and you can see Santi pulling the strings, Julian and Talles with sauce on the wings, Bakrar being a bargain Taty, a solid backline and Parks/Sands as the 6 and the 8. The outline is there.

Don't forget Andrés Perea. We need to find a way to hang on to him.

 

[moogoo]

Don't forget Andrés Perea. We need to find a way to hang on to him.

no purchase option in his loan, but that doesn't mean they can't make a new deal for him.

my hope is magno is ok and we can continue having him start on the wing. with bakrar in the middle, and new motivation, he seems like his old self again. even nick admitted he probably screwed up trying to force talles at the 9.

 

[KevinJRogers]

no purchase option in his loan, but that doesn't mean they can't make a new deal for him.

Philadelphia is a little light on forwards. I've been thinking maybe dangling Mati Pellegrini might be worth a shot. Any deal involving him would almost certainly mean stuffing a check in his pocket on the way out the door, but I think it's worth it if that's what it takes to land Perea.

Good deal all around. If we're heading in the direction I think we're heading, the Union might be a much better fit for Pelli anyway. And he's exactly the kind of scrapper Jim Curtin turns into players. He's got a knack for that sort of thing.

 

[mgarbowski]

I’m looking forward to tomorrow night.

 

[ZYanksRule]

I’m looking forward to tomorrow night.

Tomorrow feels like the most important day of our season. The teams around us all have winnable games, and if they all go our way it could go a very long way.

 

[gbservis]

Tomorrow feels like the most important day of our season. The teams around us all have winnable games, and if they all go our way it could go a very long way.

It's a huge game and it's going to be tough DC and Chicago not great but they are much better teams than terrible Toronto and short rest, no Messi, Miami.

 

[mgarbowski]

Tomorrow feels like the most important day of our season.

Oddly, it’s possibly the most impactful slate of regular season games in club history.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Right now, we do not control our own destiny - even 6 points is not a guarantee, although it would take either Miami or Charlotte running the table for us to fall to 10th.

After tonight, barring a perfect storm, we should control our own destiny with two wins. However, I don't think that even the most favorable outcomes would leave a situation where 4 points is a guarantee. With Miami beating or tying Chicago, either Miami or Charlotte could run the table and leave us out even if we close out with 4 points.

 

[mgarbowski]

Right now, we do not control our own destiny - even 6 points is not a guarantee, although it would take either Miami or Charlotte running the table for us to fall to 10th.

After tonight, barring a perfect storm, we should control our own destiny with two wins. However, I don't think that even the most favorable outcomes would leave a situation where 4 points is a guarantee. With Miami beating or tying Chicago, either Miami or Charlotte could run the table and leave us out even if we close out with 4 points.

My table says the Magic Numbers (points won by NYC + dropped by other team) are:

6 DC and Red Bulls
8 Miami and Charlotte
9 Chicago and Montreal

So if NYC gets 4, it needs 5 of the following 6 things

At least 1 tie by both (1) DC and (2) Red Bulls || (4+2=6)
At least a tie plus a loss by each of (3) Miami, (4) Charlotte, (5) Chicago, (6) Montreal || (4+2+3=9) or 3 ties each (4+2+2+2=10)

Extreme longshot, but NYCFC can clinch this weekend if it beats DC (which takes care of DC by itself) and all of the following:

Montreal loses at home to both Houston and Portland
Red Bulls lose either at Cincy or home to Toronto or tie both
Chicago/Charlotte/Miami - it's complicated: but one scenario is Chicago beats both Miami and Charlotte and also Miami and Charlotte both lose or tie their other game this week.

Note: those Magic Numbers are for NYC to finish at least 1 point ahead. As mentioned may times, we win no tiebreakers except maybe Charlotte.