NYCFC Season Discussion 2023: We Know What We Are, But Not What We May Be

Who Is Most To Blame For The Failure Of The 2023 Season?

  • Nick Cushing

    Votes: 7 41.2%
  • David Lee

    Votes: 7 41.2%
  • Brad Sims

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Marty Edelman

    Votes: 1 5.9%
  • CFG

    Votes: 2 11.8%

  • Total voters
    17
PlayoffStatus.com is updated after tonight.

If we lose at DC, Montreal wins vs. Timbers, AND Fire wins/ties vs. Charlotte, we're out of the playoff race.

No possibility of clinching the playoffs after Saturday night. It's going to come down to Decision Day.

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The worst results were Chicago and Red Bull. Montreal was always likely to get some points at home against Houston (and Portland). Same for Charlotte winning at home against Toronto.

Team​
Games​
Points​
Math​
Schedule​
Notes
CHI2402 Wins 46 pts.
1 Wins 1 tie 44 pts.
1 Win 43 points.
2 ties 42 points
Magic number 9.
CLT, @NYCIf they beat Charlotte NYC needs to beat DC to overtake. Just won 2 straight after 2 points in previous 7.
Montreal2382 Wins 44 points.
1 Win 1 tie 42 pts.
1 Win 41 points.
Magic number 7.
POR, @CLBAlmost have to win home game before DD at Columbus
NYCFC2382 Wins 44 points.
1 Win 1 tie 42.
1 Win 41.
@DCU, CHI
Charlotte3363 Wins 45 points.
2 Wins 1 tie 43 points.
2 Wins 42 points.
Magic number 8.
@CHI, @MIA, MIA
Beating Toronto was just their second win in last 16 games dating back to May.
RB2372 Wins 43 points.
1 Wins 1 tie 41.
Magic number 6.
TOR, @NSHNashville probably locked into 7th place but hopefully will not want to lose the last game before the playoffs.
DC United13740 points max. If they get it NYC is in big trouble.
Magic number 3.
NYCJust 5 Home wins. Their playoff hopes are all but dead. Beat their ass.
Miami3333 Wins 42 points.
2 Wins 1 tie 40 points.
Magic number 5.
CIN, CLT, C cltIt fell apart fast.

It's looking more like NYC needs to win both. If they do, they also need only:
either Charlotte or Montreal to tie or lose any game.

If NYC ties DC and beats Chicago they need 4 of the following 5:

Miami lose or tie at least one game
Red Bull lose or tie at least one game
Charlotte 2 ties or (1 loss plus 1 tie)
Montreal 1 loss or 2 ties
Chicago lose or tie to Charlotte

Flip NYC's results (ie beat DC and a tie at home against Chicago) and we still need 4 out of those 5 except Chicago has to lose to Charlotte.
 
Been a while since we’ve had one of these… IMG_3983.jpeg
Atleast we have our own fate for tonight. Win or Draw and we can’t be eliminated till atleast Wednesday.
 
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So to get in we need to beat Chicago and hope NJ loses + Charlotte doesn't win any of the last 2 right?

We win the tie breaker with CLT?

Not that after today's performance I have faith in the team lol.
 
So to get in we need to beat Chicago and hope NJ loses + Charlotte doesn't win any of the last 2 right?

We win the tie breaker with CLT?

Not that after today's performance I have faith in the team lol.
1. Charlotte tie/lose at Miami on October 18 AND
2. NYCFC win vs. Chicago on Decision Day AND
3. Red Bulls lose at Nashville on Decision Day AND
4. Charlotte tie/lose vs. Miami on Decision Day

If all 4 happen, NYCFC clinches the 9th seed and would play at Montreal in Round One.
 
1. Charlotte tie/lose at Miami on October 18 AND
2. NYCFC win vs. Chicago on Decision Day AND
3. Red Bulls lose at Nashville on Decision Day AND
4. Charlotte tie/lose vs. Miami on Decision Day

If all 4 happen, NYCFC clinches the 9th seed and would play at Montreal in Round One.

I'm gonna guess 1, 3 and 4 happen and we draw. Though Miami has nothing to play for now..
 
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We don't deserve to be in the playoffs. Yes nothing has gone our way this year, yes we almost got a lot more points than we did, but those are all the excuses of losers. We were almost better, but we weren't. We just weren't good enough. Hopefully there are changes in the offseason that will help us achieve what this team is capable of.
 
The blame game:

I know there has been plenty of debate about how much blame should go towards Cushing considering the roster difficulties, with some placing those roster difficulties squarely upon David Lee.
Allow me to speculate, perhaps wrongly, that at least some of our roster difficulties should be attributed to Cushing. We lost quite a bit during the off-season, and barely got a couple key players back. We also struggled to bring in replacements. I suspect some players didn't want to play for Cushing again, while we had trouble recruiting new players at least partly because of Cushing's lack of draw.
Am I completely wrong on these suspicions? Maybe, but probably not.
Either way, this season has only diminished Cushing's already limited appeal to potential prospects, and current players facing contract extensions are more likely to look elsewhere.

We have a pretty solid roster, missing just a few pieces, a few pieces that David Lee will not be able to sign to play for Nick Cushing. With Nick Cushing, 2024 is guaranteed to be another disappointment.

We need a coach that attracts players. Whether it be an experienced coach with a resume of high level success (Dome or Ronny) or a legendary player early in their managing career (Vieira or a better version of Kreis) to put it all together.

Keep Lee. Drop Cushing.
 
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I'm going to give an unpopular opinion here.

NYCFC has been to the postseason for seven straight seasons, which is one of the longest active streaks in MLS. This season has been unacceptable because it was caused by the arrogance of the organization for thinking there is no way we would miss the playoffs. I think our front office has become complacent over the last seven years. They forgot about 2015, and didn't think it was possible for us to miss the playoffs the way we currently construct the roster.

My unpopular opinion is that it might be good if we miss the playoffs, because it will stun the front office into action. It might make the rebuild move a little faster. We learned in 2015 the organization does not accept a season of this nature, and another year like this would cause a lot of people to lose their jobs. If we sneak into the playoffs, the front office could take a "see, you were all hysterical, everything is fine" mentality. Missing the playoffs might bring some urgency back into the front office so this doesn't happen for a long time.

Missing the playoffs when 18 of 29 teams make it is humiliating. But humiliation might be the thing that spurs the organization to jump-start the next era of NYCFC.
 
The blame game:

I know there has been plenty of debate about how much blame should go towards Cushing considering the roster difficulties, with some placing those roster difficulties squarely upon David Lee.
Allow me to speculate, perhaps wrongly, that at least some of our roster difficulties should be attributed to Cushing. We lost quite a bit during the off-season, and barely got a couple key players back. We also struggled to bring in replacements. I suspect some players didn't want to play for Cushing again, while we had trouble recruiting new players at least partly because of Cushing's lack of draw.
Am I completely wrong on these suspicions? Maybe, but probably not.
Either way, this season has only diminished Cushing's already limited appeal to potential prospects, and current players facing contract extensions are more likely to look elsewhere.

We have a pretty solid roster, missing just a few pieces, a few pieces that David Lee will not be able to sign to play for Nick Cushing. With Nick Cushing, 2024 is guaranteed to be another disappointment.

We need a coach that attracts players. Whether it be an experienced coach with a resume of high level success (Dome or Ronny) or a legendary player early in their managing career (Vieira or a better version of Kreis) to put it all together.

Keep Lee. Drop Cushing.

I don't disagree with your Cushing points but I think Lee has been equally bad. The list of failed moves by Lee is starting to add up and even a bunch of little mistakes in a capped league like MLS will drop a team down the table.

1. Using a DP spot on a CB is a total waste. Martins is a fine defender but how much would a hypothetical Chanot/Risa backline change our results? It's a horrible use of a key roster spot.

2. At the end of last season most people felt we needed upgrades at LB and RB. Lee went out and spent decent money on both spots and both signings lost their starting jobs to the same homegrown guys we ended last season with at LB and RB.

3. Lee clearly didn't anticipate and plan for all the departures this past offseason. Getting a pulse of a player's desire the stay or go and then building contingency plans around those possibilities is Lee's job and not something he should be given a pass on.

4. Lee did nothing in the first transfer window to address our wildly apparent hole at ST and then when the second window opened he took nearly the entire window to bring guys on board while other teams around the league had their signings ready to go day 1. Our big signing in Ferendez came so late and is so young he's still being eased into the lineup.

5. Santi was not enough of a difference-maker this season to warrant a DP spot. Now that one of the 3 DP spots is a "young DP" which will always come with a higher degree of variability due to age there is even more pressure to use the other 2 DP spots on true difference-makers. Santi is a very good player but he was not elevating the team the way DPs on successful teams do.

6. This is probably just the frustration of the latest results talking but is this roster any good or do we all, myself included, just keep saying the team is good and we are set up well for next year because these are our guys? Perea was so far down the Philadelphia depth chart that they loaned him to an intraconference rival and for his time with us he looked like one of our best players. Compare our lineup and bench to the championship game and every position is either equal in quality or worse:

2021 Championship game/2023 DC Game

GK - Johnson/Freese (slightly worse)
LB - Gray/Gray (equal)
CB - Chanot/Martins (equal but Martins in a DP)
CB - Callens/Risa (TBD Risa looks solid but it's hard to imagine him being as good as Callens)
RB - Thor/O'Toole (equal)
CM - Sands/Sands (equal)
CM - Moreles/Perea (equal, 2021 Morales was much better than the 2023 version)
CAM - Maxi/Santi (worse)
LW - Santi/Mango (worse)
RW - Medina/Jasson (worse)
ST - Taty/Bakrar (worse)

'21 Bench - Magno, Heber, ITS, Thiago, Acevedo, Amundsen, Rocha, Barraza, Zelalem
'23 Bench - Fernandez, Martinez, Parks, Haak, Cufre, Pellegrini, Ledezma, Barraza

The offensive difference on the benches alone is absurd. Comparing to the championship roster is a high bar and some regression is natural but you expect at least a couple of positions to get upgraded if Lee is doing his job well.
 
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Goals.
The 2022 team scored 56 goals.

Preseason Departures 29 (2022 goals)
Taty 13, Heber 8, Callens 5, Maxi 2, Gloster 1
Remainders 27 (2022 goals)
Pereira 8, Talles 7, Thiago 5, Santi 4, Keaton 2, Chanot 1
Preseason Additions 0 (2022 goals)
Segal 0, Alfaro 0, Ilenic 0, Cufre 0, Ledezma 0

Then a month into the season Thiago left after scoring 1 goal, so subtract 4 bringing the adjusted 2022 total goals scored down to 23.

The roster was primed to score 0.68 goals per game based on 2022 production. They scored 1.04 before Leagues Cup. Some guys grew into bigger roles, or just had more minutes, and some kids who never scored before punched in a handful. A 54% increase over 2022 is probably as good as one could have expected. That was 71% of the season.

Late Season Transfers 4 (2022-23 goals - game adjusted)
Full season:
Bakrar 8, Martinez 8, Fernandez 3, Perea 2, Risa 0, Pereira -8
Adjusted for 10 games:
Bakrar 2.35, Martinez 2.35, Fernandez 0.88, Perea 0.59, Risa 0, Pereira -2.35
Adjusted Total 3.82. Call it 4.
I'm not including Maxi given how it worked out.

That's a roster that - adjusted when they left and arrived - brought 27 previous season goals into this team in 2023. The actual 2023 goal count is 34. Blood from a freaking stone.

This team was not built anywhere near adequate to make the playoffs. Only reason it was even close is an overriding focus on defense, which just generated fan complaints. But relying on offense to pull you through with this roster was insanity. The answer to the question of why Nick played so defensively is he looked at his roster and saw reality.

To repeat my position yet again: I'm OK with letting Nick go, but most of the arguments people make are nonsense. Zero evidence and unfalsifiable arguments have no persuasive value. The offensive potential of this roster was terrible on Day 1 and barely improved after the window.

I think they hoped/believed Talles should have raised his production from 7 goals in 2022 to say 15 in 2023. Then you have 27 (2022 actual) plus 8 more from Talles plus maybe 7- 10 new from the rest of the team (which happened) and that's a 42-45 goal team, which is a clear playoff team. It's still not that good, but it is a playoff team.
But Talles did not grow at all and instead he regressed. We tried everything during the first 24 games: True 9, False 9, Santi as 9. Could another manager have unlocked him? What was supposed to work? What was left untried? After the break Magno sat most of the first 5 games. I get the criticism of that. But when he played the next 4 games he still scored only 1 goal.
The team's fate was set with the February 25 roster and a tepid summer window that lost the team's existing high scorer and did not add a single proven double-digit goal scorer.
 
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