The 2019 MLS Cup Playoffs

Kaye just got hurt vs. USA. Bad one for LAFC.
 
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When filling out a bracket. A good way to go is to assume a certain number of upsets each round and then pick the games you think are most likely to end up with an upset. I do this each year in the NCAA Tournament pool and have had good results.

Of course, with March Madness there is ample precedent for how many upsets to expect each round. With MLS this season, there are no precedents.

I would go with what 538 is predicting for the opening round and then extrapolate.

1st Round: 2/6
2nd Round: 1-2/4
3rd Round: 0-1/2
I'm looking forward to the media over-reaction after the first upset, that blames the new playoff format and ignores the historical "upset rate" of the old playoff format.
 
I'm looking forward to the media over-reaction after the first upset, that blames the new playoff format and ignores the historical "upset rate" of the old playoff format.
Also, if LAFC and NYCFC win, it will be because they were well rested. If they lose, it will be because they are rusty.
 
I'm looking forward to the media over-reaction after the first upset, that blames the new playoff format and ignores the historical "upset rate" of the old playoff format.

And the first team who whines about not having a return leg - especially if they lose a close game on a blown call. (Yikes please please please let that not be us.)
 
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And the first team who whines about not having a return leg - especially if they lose a close game on a blown call. (Yikes please please please let that not be us.)

if we get alan kelly as our ref.. def. gonna be us. "announcers: the ball just crossed the line but kelly has waved it off!"
 
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Of course, with March Madness there is ample precedent for how many upsets to expect each round. With MLS this season, there are no precedents.
I would go with what 538 is predicting for the opening round and then extrapolate.

There is sort of a precedent in MLS based on Home/Away records. As it happens, it almost exactly aligns with the 538 figures. If you take the 538 percentage likelihood that each home team wins in the first round and average them you get 69.5%.

In league play, MLS teams played 305 games that ended in a W/L result. The home team won 69.8%.

I'm a little surprised they match so much. You should expect Home teams who also have a better record (which defines every playoff game) to do better than the league average, in which half the games should feature home teams with worse records. I think part of it is accounting for shootouts. There I'm pretty sure that being a better team and/or being at home are both less of an advantage than in open play. It appears that in the 538 model that seems to almost exactly counter the stacking of being both better and at home, so that overall the end result just matches the expectations for home teams.
 
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Also, if LAFC and NYCFC win, it will be because they were well rested. If they lose, it will be because they are rusty.
Yup, I noted that in my response to this question for The Outfield's Pigeon Post.

This is also a typical response for the NFL playoffs with the 1 and 2 seeds.
 
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according to fans who are doing the bracket challenge, we have a less than 10% chance of winning the cup.
Well, we're ranked third behind LAFC and Atlanta. Given how ATL fans turn out for MLS polls and comments, and NYCFC fans absolutely do not, I'd say that's about as good as one could expect.
 
I think it is worth watching the video if you are so inclined.
If not, he goes all chalk until
the final, where he has NYCFC beating LAFC.
And his explanation for why he suddenly stopped going chalk is...

"It's MLS and anything can happen."

Uh, then why didn't anything happen until the final? How about giving an actual reason why NYCFC can beat LAFC? Maybe something like "NYCFC has won more points over the back half of the season."
 
And his explanation for why he suddenly stopped going chalk is...

"It's MLS and anything can happen."

Uh, then why didn't anything happen until the final? How about giving an actual reason why NYCFC can beat LAFC? Maybe something like "NYCFC has won more points over the back half of the season."
I had the exact same response.
 
Two Guardian writers sum up MLS 2019 and predict the playoffs. Neither has NYCFC making the final. One has us losing to Toronto, the other says we lose to Atlanta.

 
Two Guardian writers sum up MLS 2019 and predict the playoffs. Neither has NYCFC making the final. One has us losing to Toronto, the other says we lose to Atlanta.


Sounds like despite being the number one seed in the east, best record in the final 10 games or whatever in the league, and a basically full strength roster... We are seen as the under dogs.

That's fine by me. It'll make every victory feel that much better.
 
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