2021 Roster Discussion

Taken right from a front office email.

No trophies. No success.
I find stark takes like this a little puzzling. This is only the 7th season, and we’ve gotten more points than almost anyone in the league. Am I a little bummed we haven’t gone further in the playoffs? Of course. Do I want to win trophies? Definitely. But this is a long-term project. I mean, I’ve been a Mets fan for 54 years, give or take, and they’ve averaged roughly one World Series per decade. Not too bad, to be honest. There have been some terrible years and some great years, and some terrible owners and some great owners, and that’s how sports goes. And I’m still a fan regardless of results. That’s what being a fan means. Same with Man City. They’re at the top nowadays, but I can certainly remember the many years when they managed to eke out 40 points so I could relax knowing they’d (mostly likely) stay up.

No trophies? Bummer. MLS team in New York City?* Total success.

* Covid/schedule conflict/lack of stadium exceptions acknowledged. And if the team moves to New Jersey all bets are off.
 
"Most points over the last five years," is like our version of "Back-to-Back AFC Championship games under Rex".

You can look back and feel satisfied or forward and feel worried.

When your club comes to the conclusion that paying less for non-impact players makes more sense than paying more for non-impact players, you're in trouble.
 
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I hear that.
The 2020 signings link was for exactly what I prefaced it as “like”. We could look at 2019 signings and I still think there would be names (Pozuelo) that are examples of what I think fans who complain about CFG Are talking about.
I’m not sure the players you listed fit the bill of what people are expecting. Ring? Tinerholm is good but is that the type of big signing NYCFC fans expect from a organization like CFG? Hebert? I loved him in 2019, let’s see what he can contribute moving forward.
I’m not saying you are wrong, I’m just saying the expectations of many fans are that CFG should be able to find and sign a Zelaryan, Joao Paulo, Pulido, Pozuelo, Vela...
People (not just Antidote P. Smiley VernonJohn) really want to believe that this team's playoff failures somehow represent a player acquisition failure.

I know people are tired of this but this team has excelled in regular season play for several years. But though it's kind of empty when the team says it in marketing, you cannot ignore it for analysis purposes. Because there never was any predicting that the same players who earned that season record would consistently bomb in the playoffs. That's not predictable, or easily fixed with more money or better scouting. What exactly is the scouting metric or salary cost for "won't fuck up in the playoffs?" What exactly made Columbus know that Zelarayan would score as many goals in one playoff run as David Villa did in 3 (while adding 5 assists to Villa's zero)? In 2015, would anyone here have preferred Jozy Altidore on our playoff rosters over David Villa? Jozy had 9 G+A in the 2016 playoffs alone. That's 7 more than Villa had in his MLS career. Who predicts that? Is that the fault of CFG, Reyna, who? It's not even Villa's fault.

Tired of the Villa comparisons? 2019. NYCFC scores 1.94 goals per game in the second half of the season, and earned more than 2 PPG after a slow first 6 games, then bombed in the playoffs, yet again. Everyone here expected a win. Because that made sense. If there was even one post here before that playoff game that said we will lose because Heber, Taty, and Shradi and Mitrita lack star power and combine for 1 goal while Pozuelo will carry Toronto I don't remember it. Even then, Pozuelo only scored because of an outright gift from Chanot and someone else earned a penalty. He did not exactly dominate that game.

You never know how someone will do in the playoffs until it happens, and it's non-predictive. Belichick and Brady are 0-2 against the Giants in the Super Bowl and I think 6-1 against the rest of the NFC. Meanwhile the Giants were mostly terrible that entire period, and weren't even that good the years they beat the Patriots. But they won those Super Bowls, and it counts, and Giants fans would not trade those wins for 7 years of first place finishes. So it goes in knockout playoffs.

But somehow CFG should know how to sign players who, something something.

The success of Seattle, Toronto and Columbus in a statistically small handful of seasons proves nothing. Playoffs stats are what clusters and randomness looks like. That great Altidore 2016 playoff run? He had 1.39 G+A per 90. His other 6 years of MLS playoff appearances? 0.32 GA/90. So was Toronto brilliant or stupid for signing him? Does it change the analysis that Toronto lost MLS Cup in 2016 but won in one of his more prevalent off years? Is he a clutch MLS playoff performer or not? There is no answer to that.

NYCFC's problems are not fixable by pre-identifying players who will score in playoff games. And that unfixable-except-by-chance problem is our problem no matter how much people want to pretend it's an issue that could have been fixed with better ---- something. It just happens.

ETA: The one thing I think you can put on CFG is having 2 good coaches quit in short order, and under circumstances that left the club having to adjust on the fly just as the coach and roster started humming. Even then, I'm not sure it makes a difference in knockout play if Vieira stays until the end of 2018 or if Dome were here last year.
 
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People (not just Antidote P. Smiley VernonJohn) really want to believe that this team's playoff failures somehow represent a player acquisition failure.

I know people are tired of this but this team has excelled in regular season play for several years. But though it's kind of empty when the team says it in marketing, you cannot ignore it for analysis purposes. Because there never was any predicting that the same players who earned that season record would consistently bomb in the playoffs. That's not predictable, or easily fixed with more money or better scouting. What exactly is the scouting metric or salary cost for "won't fuck up in the playoffs?" What exactly made Columbus know that Zelarayan would score as many goals in one playoff run as David Villa did in 3 (while adding 5 assists to Villa's zero)? In 2015, would anyone here have preferred Jozy Altidore on our playoff rosters over David Villa? Jozy had 9 G+A in the 2016 playoffs alone. That's 7 more than Villa had in his MLS career. Who predicts that? Is that the fault of CFG, Reyna, who? It's not even Villa's fault.

Tired of the Villa comparisons? 2019. NYCFC scores 1.94 goals per game in the second half of the season, and earned more than 2 PPG after a slow first 6 games, then bombed in the playoffs, yet again. Everyone here expected a win. Because that made sense. If there was even one post here before that playoff game that said we will lose because Heber, Taty, and Shradi and Mitrita lack star power and combine for 1 goal while Pozuelo will carry Toronto I don't remember it. Even then, Pozuelo only scored because of an outright gift from Chanot and someone else earned a penalty. He did not exactly dominate that game.

You never know how someone will do in the playoffs until it happens, and it's non-predictive. Belichick and Brady are 0-2 against the Giants in the Super Bowl and I think 6-1 against the rest of the NFC. Meanwhile the Giants were mostly terrible that entire period, and weren't even that good the years they beat the Patriots. But they won those Super Bowls, and it counts, and Giants fans would not trade those wins for 7 years of first place finishes. So it goes in knockout playoffs.

But somehow CFG should know how to sign players who, something something.

The success of Seattle, Toronto and Columbus in a statistically small handful of seasons proves nothing. Playoffs stats are what clusters and randomness looks like. That great Altidore 2016 playoff run? He had 1.39 G+A per 90. His other 6 years of MLS playoff appearances? 0.32 GA/90. So was Toronto brilliant or stupid for signing him? Is he a clutch MLS playoff performer or not? There is no answer to that.

NYCFC's problems are not fixable by pre-identifying players who will score in playoff games. And that unifxable-except-by-chance problem is our problem no matter how much people want to pretend it's an issue that could have been fixed with better ---- something. It just happens.

ETA: The one thing I think you can put on CFG s having 2 good coaches quit in short order, and under circumstances that left the club having to adjust on the fly just as the coach and roster started humming. Even then, I'm not sure it makes a difference in 1-game knockout play if Vieira stays until the end of 2018 or if Dome were here last year.
This, exactly.

Which is why, of course, that the Shield is what matters and the Cup is meaningless. <runs for cover LOL>
 
This, exactly.

Which is why, of course, that the Shield is what matters and the Cup is meaningless. <runs for cover LOL>
And to take it further, you could totally imagine, for example, a team like 2020-21 Man City finishing 14 points ahead of everybody else and then not getting "the big trophy" if the Premier League had playoffs. But nobody in his right mind would trade this ManCity for any other PL team. Of course NYCFC have not been head-and-shoulders above the rest, but after 2016 they've been one of a handful of really good, solid, reliable teams. The stadium saga is an embarrassment, but the team has been mostly something to be proud of.
 
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People (not just Antidote P. Smiley VernonJohn) really want to believe that this team's playoff failures somehow represent a player acquisition failure.

I know people are tired of this but this team has excelled in regular season play for several years. But though it's kind of empty when the team says it in marketing, you cannot ignore it for analysis purposes. Because there never was any predicting that the same players who earned that season record would consistently bomb in the playoffs. That's not predictable, or easily fixed with more money or better scouting. What exactly is the scouting metric or salary cost for "won't fuck up in the playoffs?" What exactly made Columbus know that Zelarayan would score as many goals in one playoff run as David Villa did in 3 (while adding 5 assists to Villa's zero)? In 2015, would anyone here have preferred Jozy Altidore on our playoff rosters over David Villa? Jozy had 9 G+A in the 2016 playoffs alone. That's 7 more than Villa had in his MLS career. Who predicts that? Is that the fault of CFG, Reyna, who? It's not even Villa's fault.

Tired of the Villa comparisons? 2019. NYCFC scores 1.94 goals per game in the second half of the season, and earned more than 2 PPG after a slow first 6 games, then bombed in the playoffs, yet again. Everyone here expected a win. Because that made sense. If there was even one post here before that playoff game that said we will lose because Heber, Taty, and Shradi and Mitrita lack star power and combine for 1 goal while Pozuelo will carry Toronto I don't remember it. Even then, Pozuelo only scored because of an outright gift from Chanot and someone else earned a penalty. He did not exactly dominate that game.

You never know how someone will do in the playoffs until it happens, and it's non-predictive. Belichick and Brady are 0-2 against the Giants in the Super Bowl and I think 6-1 against the rest of the NFC. Meanwhile the Giants were mostly terrible that entire period, and weren't even that good the years they beat the Patriots. But they won those Super Bowls, and it counts, and Giants fans would not trade those wins for 7 years of first place finishes. So it goes in knockout playoffs.

But somehow CFG should know how to sign players who, something something.

The success of Seattle, Toronto and Columbus in a statistically small handful of seasons proves nothing. Playoffs stats are what clusters and randomness looks like. That great Altidore 2016 playoff run? He had 1.39 G+A per 90. His other 6 years of MLS playoff appearances? 0.32 GA/90. So was Toronto brilliant or stupid for signing him? Does it matter that Toronto lost MLS Cup in 2016 but won in one of his more prevalent off years? Is he a clutch MLS playoff performer or not? There is no answer to that.

NYCFC's problems are not fixable by pre-identifying players who will score in playoff games. And that unfixable-except-by-chance problem is our problem no matter how much people want to pretend it's an issue that could have been fixed with better ---- something. It just happens.

ETA: The one thing I think you can put on CFG is having 2 good coaches quit in short order, and under circumstances that left the club having to adjust on the fly just as the coach and roster started humming. Even then, I'm not sure it makes a difference in knockout play if Vieira stays until the end of 2018 or if Dome were here last year.

I’ve been waiting so long for someone to nail it this well. Outstanding.
 
People (not just Antidote P. Smiley VernonJohn) really want to believe that this team's playoff failures somehow represent a player acquisition failure.

I know people are tired of this but this team has excelled in regular season play for several years. But though it's kind of empty when the team says it in marketing, you cannot ignore it for analysis purposes. Because there never was any predicting that the same players who earned that season record would consistently bomb in the playoffs. That's not predictable, or easily fixed with more money or better scouting. What exactly is the scouting metric or salary cost for "won't fuck up in the playoffs?" What exactly made Columbus know that Zelarayan would score as many goals in one playoff run as David Villa did in 3 (while adding 5 assists to Villa's zero)? In 2015, would anyone here have preferred Jozy Altidore on our playoff rosters over David Villa? Jozy had 9 G+A in the 2016 playoffs alone. That's 7 more than Villa had in his MLS career. Who predicts that? Is that the fault of CFG, Reyna, who? It's not even Villa's fault.

Tired of the Villa comparisons? 2019. NYCFC scores 1.94 goals per game in the second half of the season, and earned more than 2 PPG after a slow first 6 games, then bombed in the playoffs, yet again. Everyone here expected a win. Because that made sense. If there was even one post here before that playoff game that said we will lose because Heber, Taty, and Shradi and Mitrita lack star power and combine for 1 goal while Pozuelo will carry Toronto I don't remember it. Even then, Pozuelo only scored because of an outright gift from Chanot and someone else earned a penalty. He did not exactly dominate that game.

You never know how someone will do in the playoffs until it happens, and it's non-predictive. Belichick and Brady are 0-2 against the Giants in the Super Bowl and I think 6-1 against the rest of the NFC. Meanwhile the Giants were mostly terrible that entire period, and weren't even that good the years they beat the Patriots. But they won those Super Bowls, and it counts, and Giants fans would not trade those wins for 7 years of first place finishes. So it goes in knockout playoffs.

But somehow CFG should know how to sign players who, something something.

The success of Seattle, Toronto and Columbus in a statistically small handful of seasons proves nothing. Playoffs stats are what clusters and randomness looks like. That great Altidore 2016 playoff run? He had 1.39 G+A per 90. His other 6 years of MLS playoff appearances? 0.32 GA/90. So was Toronto brilliant or stupid for signing him? Does it matter that Toronto lost MLS Cup in 2016 but won in one of his more prevalent off years? Is he a clutch MLS playoff performer or not? There is no answer to that.

NYCFC's problems are not fixable by pre-identifying players who will score in playoff games. And that unfixable-except-by-chance problem is our problem no matter how much people want to pretend it's an issue that could have been fixed with better ---- something. It just happens.

ETA: The one thing I think you can put on CFG is having 2 good coaches quit in short order, and under circumstances that left the club having to adjust on the fly just as the coach and roster started humming. Even then, I'm not sure it makes a difference in knockout play if Vieira stays until the end of 2018 or if Dome were here last year.
I don’t remember saying I think the playoff failures were due to player acquisition failure. I agree, it takes more than just talent to win trophies for sure. Sometimes it just takes a kind of magic that you can’t go out and buy.
I’ve only been watching this team since 2018 and it’s been fun and admittedly frustrating. The two gaffes against TFC that Pozuelo capitalized on as well as the slow start to that match is kind of indicative of what the team has been as well as what the team lacks. (Killer instinct) That early Columbus game last season is similar. Again, you make great points. Yes, a lot of people do expect that CFG sign players who can make a difference on the pitch especially in the playoffs. I don’t know if that is necessarily that outlandish to expect. Yeah sometimes even exceptional players lay eggs in big games. Maybe you’ve convinced me that I believe player acquisition is part of the problem... As good as this team has been the last couple years I think they were missing a certain type and caliber of player that could do what some of those mentioned could do.
 
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And to take it further, you could totally imagine, for example, a team like 2020-21 Man City finishing 14 points ahead of everybody else and then not getting "the big trophy" if the Premier League had playoffs. But nobody in his right mind would trade this ManCity for any other PL team.
Yes, exactly. I'm not against the Cup at all, but it's the Shield that shows who's the best team. The Cup is just a win-four-in-a-row tournament after the season's over. I realize that's a distinctly minority view and I'm fine with that, but I definitely like the Premier League way of doing things.
 
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the thing is.. we don't just want to qualify for the playoffs.. we want to win the cup.

i for one am not satisfied with merely being a "playoff team". I want to be champions. Saying that we are not challenging for the SS is basically saying we aren't good enough to win the cup unless some fluke, crazy shit were to happen in the playoffs (which does happen, but we can't rely on that).

Fully agree. But the playoffs are a crapshoot. Even for the best teams like we were in 2018, nothing is guaranteed. If we make good moves in the summer, that is a route to success in the playoffs. Just ask Seattle.
 
Yes, exactly. I'm not against the Cup at all, but it's the Shield that shows who's the best team. The Cup is just a win-four-in-a-row tournament after the season's over. I realize that's a distinctly minority view and I'm fine with that, but I definitely like the Premier League way of doing things.

MLS Cup is the one everyone remembers, but the shield is clearly the better signal of which team is best.
 
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We get a lot of points because we’re relatively deep at all positions and haven’t been crushed by injuries. Because we field a competitive 11, no one singular injury outside of Maxi really impacts us.

But in the playoffs, you play against good teams in every match. And you play against guys who are Leage MVPs and guys that score lots of goals. We don’t have a league MVP talent or guys that score lots of goals.

We lack the top top end talent. No Vela. Or Ibra.
 
We get a lot of points because we’re relatively deep at all positions and haven’t been crushed by injuries. Because we field a competitive 11, no one singular injury outside of Maxi really impacts us.

But in the playoffs, you play against good teams in every match. And you play against guys who are Leage MVPs and guys that score lots of goals. We don’t have a league MVP talent or guys that score lots of goals.

We lack the top top end talent. No Vela. Or Ibra.

In 2019, Heber and Maxi Moralez finished 4th and 5th in MLS MVP balloting.
 
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We lack the top top end talent. No Vela. Or Ibra.
Neither of whom has won MLS Cup. Their combined MLS playoff rounds won is 2, one of which came when playing each other. They fit right in with David Villa.

Meanwhile, Lucas Zelarayán was a nice but much lesser talent who scored a not-so-massive 23 goals in 4 years with Tigres before he dominated the MLS playoffs his first year at Columbus.
 
Neither of whom has won MLS Cup. Their combined MLS playoff rounds won is 2, one of which came when playing each other. They fit right in with David Villa.

Meanwhile, Lucas Zelarayán was a nice but much lesser talent who scored a not-so-massive 23 goals in 4 years with Tigres before he dominated the MLS playoffs his first year at Columbus.
I wonder if age has anything to do with this...
Although the galaxy, I’m sure, have had other problems as well... Ibra wasn’t a spring chicken with LA and was one dimensional and I don’t think it can be underestimated how essentially defending with 10 is a handicap.
Zelaryan is now just past the “prime” years of a footballer. Vela is a little older. Villa was 33-37 with NYCFC.
Having the right squad around a star player is as important as the star player. As MLS grows and changes, having an older David Villa (thinking 2018 when I started watching NYCFC) or Ibra may not be the best way to win hardware. (Zlatan still doing it in Serie A and AC Milan I’m second so?) In 2018 the NYCFC plan seemed to be to get the ball to an slower and aging Villa and hope he’s got some magic left.
Roman Torres would skew the average age of the team but Seattle also won in 2019 with key players being under 30.
There’s so many things that need to go right to win trophies. Just throwing it out there.
 
I wonder if age has anything to do with this...
Although the galaxy, I’m sure, have had other problems as well... Ibra wasn’t a spring chicken with LA and was one dimensional and I don’t think it can be underestimated how essentially defending with 10 is a handicap.
Zelaryan is now just past the “prime” years of a footballer. Vela is a little older. Villa was 33-37 with NYCFC.
Having the right squad around a star player is as important as the star player. As MLS grows and changes, having an older David Villa (thinking 2018 when I started watching NYCFC) or Ibra may not be the best way to win hardware. (Zlatan still doing it in Serie A and AC Milan I’m second so?) In 2018 the NYCFC plan seemed to be to get the ball to an slower and aging Villa and hope he’s got some magic left.
Roman Torres would skew the average age of the team but Seattle also won in 2019 with key players being under 30.
There’s so many things that need to go right to win trophies. Just throwing it out there.
I still feels this reinforces the crapshoot argument vis-a-vis the playoffs. Consider LAFC in 2019: Carlos Vela had the best individual season in MLS history in 2019, by any metric, and LAFC got the shield and broke the points record, despite the fact that they limped to the finish line (5 D, 1L, 2W in last 8 games). To my eye they were clearly better than anybody else, almost untouchable, and alas they didn't get the MLS Cup. Vela was 30, but in his case it is difficult to talk about his prime because he's a guy with amazing potential and questionable drive, who in his best years could be voted in a shortlist of La Liga's best forwards (2014) and subsequently could be resisted by the fanbase, and could muse aloud about either retiring or coming to MLS (as early as 2015). I honestly thought he was going to be lazy and flop in MLS, and I stand corrected. My point being that you can have every advantage and still not win MLS Cup, and although certain elements could help, and our team has stopped being a big spender lately, I don´t think NYCFC has had worse chances that anybody since 2017. If you add PRO refereeing to the mix (i.e. Callens red card against against the Crew in 2017) then it turns into a reeeeal crapshoot.
 
And in 2016, Villa won the MVP.

Where’s his replacement? Or Heber’s
Or Maxi?

Heber and Maxi are still on the team. I'm not ready to say that 2020 is what those guys are now. If Maxi can stay healthy, maybe he can revert back to being at least close to what he was in 2019. Skills don't erode that fast.