i really like altidore but the last two games tfc had started hamilton and ricketts at st with gio. gio is on fire with or without him right now.
2016 Playoff Projections, or Hope By The Numbers
- Thread starter mgarbowski
- Start date
Before starting, remember we probably lose a tiebreaker if we end up even on points with anyone. Anyone who ties us will probably end up with at least the same number of wins and they all beat us on GD absent some giant wins by NYC.
Winning the Supporters Shield will take extraordinary results. There are now 6 teams in contention, which makes climbing to the top of the pile that much harder unless you are already there. Dallas has a 7-point lead on us with 10 to play. That doesn't sound too bad considering we play them right? If we win we only have to pick up 5 points in the other 9 games.
Let’s say we do something amazing like finish 7-1-1 in the other 9 games and end up with 62 points. DFC can get 62 points by going 6-3-0 in their other 9. Overall that's 18 points in their last 10 games which is 1.8 PPG which is in line with what they have done all season. Anything worse than 8-1-1 from NYC, and Dallas is almost a sure thing to stay ahead of us, and if they really stumble, we still have to contend with the other 4 contenders. If you want to believe, go ahead. It can happen, but realize it is a very big ask.
When NYRB was winning 2-0 last night this was shaping up to be just about the worst possible weekend of results. TFC won twice, Montreal won, and Philly managed a road draw. LA’s ability to grab the draw back from the Scarlett Steers was really big for us, as a road win in LA would have put the Red Bulls just 2 points behind us and suddenly able to beat strong teams Away. That was kind of scary to contemplate. They’re not out of it, and I would have preferred a loss, but those extra two points make a big difference and I think with our easier schedule we should stay ahead of RBNY.
During a hot, lazy Sunday, I went through the remaining schedules of the top 5 East teams using these parameters: What if NYC performs at the low end of its current form, while everyone else performs at the upper end of their current form. If any team goes on a tear or collapses then they easily win or drop out of contention so that's not worth measuring.
For NYC, I started by assuming we lose the 3 toughest games: LAG and DFC at home and ORL on the road. We win the other 3 Home and go 2-1-1 in the other 4 Away games. That comes to 16 points in 10 games, 1.6 PPG and what I would consider a moderately disappointing finish to the season. Even though 1.6 is slightly better than the current average to date, with the schedule we have and the team’s form since game 8, we should do better. But it’s not disastrously bad, and NYC finishes with 53 total points.
I’ll skip the game-by-game for the other teams, but when I ran through the TFC schedule assuming they do well but not amazing, they finish 6-2-3 for 21 points in 11 games and 1.91 PPG, and 57 total points. That leaves a 4 point edge for TFC. Rounding it out, Montreal and the Red Bulls both ended up with 52, and the Union with 51.
It's all rather meaningless, except this: with so much close competition NYC probably needs to win at least 6 of the last 10 to finish first. Moreover, If TFC gets just 7 or 8 points in their next 5 tough games they are in very good shape even if NYC gets 18-20 more points overall. TFC is very likely to get 12 points in their last 6, with 5 of them at home against weak road teams. So 8 + 12 would mean 20 points in their last 11 and 56 total. NYC needs to go 6-2-2 to beat that. That’s doable, but I’d feel a lot better if TFC gets say, 5 or 6 points in the next 5 games.
The PPG standings:
What we need to do to get certain results.
I haven’t changed this chart since I started the thread except to adjust for updated results. Midweek I think I will revise the lines and scenarios altogether. For one, because NYC went 9 straight games without a draw some of the remaining possibilities seem ridiculous. I suppose we could go 3-2-5 but it’s not worth tracking. Second, I should probably drop some lines from the bottom and add some to the top. At this point any of the results below 47 points would be too disastrous to contemplate.
PPG Roundup:
Against the East 1.41
Against the West 1.86
Home 1.42
Away 1.67
First 8 games: 0.88
Since game 8 1.88
First 15 games 1.20
Since game 15 2.0
First Half: 1.41
Second Half 1.86
Final fun fact: NYCFC right now has the same number of both wins and draws as all of last year, and 10 fewer losses.
Winning the Supporters Shield will take extraordinary results. There are now 6 teams in contention, which makes climbing to the top of the pile that much harder unless you are already there. Dallas has a 7-point lead on us with 10 to play. That doesn't sound too bad considering we play them right? If we win we only have to pick up 5 points in the other 9 games.Let’s say we do something amazing like finish 7-1-1 in the other 9 games and end up with 62 points. DFC can get 62 points by going 6-3-0 in their other 9. Overall that's 18 points in their last 10 games which is 1.8 PPG which is in line with what they have done all season. Anything worse than 8-1-1 from NYC, and Dallas is almost a sure thing to stay ahead of us, and if they really stumble, we still have to contend with the other 4 contenders. If you want to believe, go ahead. It can happen, but realize it is a very big ask.
When NYRB was winning 2-0 last night this was shaping up to be just about the worst possible weekend of results. TFC won twice, Montreal won, and Philly managed a road draw. LA’s ability to grab the draw back from the Scarlett Steers was really big for us, as a road win in LA would have put the Red Bulls just 2 points behind us and suddenly able to beat strong teams Away. That was kind of scary to contemplate. They’re not out of it, and I would have preferred a loss, but those extra two points make a big difference and I think with our easier schedule we should stay ahead of RBNY.During a hot, lazy Sunday, I went through the remaining schedules of the top 5 East teams using these parameters: What if NYC performs at the low end of its current form, while everyone else performs at the upper end of their current form. If any team goes on a tear or collapses then they easily win or drop out of contention so that's not worth measuring.For NYC, I started by assuming we lose the 3 toughest games: LAG and DFC at home and ORL on the road. We win the other 3 Home and go 2-1-1 in the other 4 Away games. That comes to 16 points in 10 games, 1.6 PPG and what I would consider a moderately disappointing finish to the season. Even though 1.6 is slightly better than the current average to date, with the schedule we have and the team’s form since game 8, we should do better. But it’s not disastrously bad, and NYC finishes with 53 total points.
I’ll skip the game-by-game for the other teams, but when I ran through the TFC schedule assuming they do well but not amazing, they finish 6-2-3 for 21 points in 11 games and 1.91 PPG, and 57 total points. That leaves a 4 point edge for TFC. Rounding it out, Montreal and the Red Bulls both ended up with 52, and the Union with 51.
It's all rather meaningless, except this: with so much close competition NYC probably needs to win at least 6 of the last 10 to finish first. Moreover, If TFC gets just 7 or 8 points in their next 5 tough games they are in very good shape even if NYC gets 18-20 more points overall. TFC is very likely to get 12 points in their last 6, with 5 of them at home against weak road teams. So 8 + 12 would mean 20 points in their last 11 and 56 total. NYC needs to go 6-2-2 to beat that. That’s doable, but I’d feel a lot better if TFC gets say, 5 or 6 points in the next 5 games.
The PPG standings:
What we need to do to get certain results.
I haven’t changed this chart since I started the thread except to adjust for updated results. Midweek I think I will revise the lines and scenarios altogether. For one, because NYC went 9 straight games without a draw some of the remaining possibilities seem ridiculous. I suppose we could go 3-2-5 but it’s not worth tracking. Second, I should probably drop some lines from the bottom and add some to the top. At this point any of the results below 47 points would be too disastrous to contemplate.
PPG Roundup:Against the East 1.41
Against the West 1.86
Home 1.42
Away 1.67
First 8 games: 0.88
Since game 8 1.88
First 15 games 1.20
Since game 15 2.0
First Half: 1.41
Second Half 1.86
Final fun fact: NYCFC right now has the same number of both wins and draws as all of last year, and 10 fewer losses.
Before starting, remember we probably lose a tiebreaker if we end up even on points with anyone. Anyone who ties us will probably end up with at least the same number of wins and they all beat us on GD absent some giant wins by NYC.
Let’s say we do something amazing like finish 7-1-1 in the other 9 games and end up with 62 points. DFC can get 62 points by going 6-3-0 in their other 9. Overall that's 18 points in their last 10 games which is 1.8 PPG which is in line with what they have done all season. Anything worse than 8-1-1 from NYC, and Dallas is almost a sure thing to stay ahead of us, and if they really stumble, we still have to contend with the other 4 contenders. If you want to believe, go ahead. It can happen, but realize it is a very big ask.
For NYC, I started by assuming we lose the 3 toughest games: LAG and DFC at home and ORL on the road. We win the other 3 Home and go 2-1-1 in the other 4 Away games. That comes to 16 points in 10 games, 1.6 PPG and what I would consider a moderately disappointing finish to the season. Even though 1.6 is slightly better than the current average to date, with the schedule we have and the team’s form since game 8, we should do better. But it’s not disastrously bad, and NYC finishes with 53 total points.
I’ll skip the game-by-game for the other teams, but when I ran through the TFC schedule assuming they do well but not amazing, they finish 6-2-3 for 21 points in 11 games and 1.91 PPG, and 57 total points. That leaves a 4 point edge for TFC. Rounding it out, Montreal and the Red Bulls both ended up with 52, and the Union with 51.
It's all rather meaningless, except this: with so much close competition NYC probably needs to win at least 6 of the last 10 to finish first. Moreover, If TFC gets just 7 or 8 points in their next 5 tough games they are in very good shape even if NYC gets 18-20 more points overall. TFC is very likely to get 12 points in their last 6, with 5 of them at home against weak road teams. So 8 + 12 would mean 20 points in their last 11 and 56 total. NYC needs to go 6-2-2 to beat that. That’s doable, but I’d feel a lot better if TFC gets say, 5 or 6 points in the next 5 games.
The PPG standings:
View attachment 5517
What we need to do to get certain results.
View attachment 5518
I haven’t changed this chart since I started the thread except to adjust for updated results. Midweek I think I will revise the lines and scenarios altogether. For one, because NYC went 9 straight games without a draw some of the remaining possibilities seem ridiculous. I suppose we could go 3-2-5 but it’s not worth tracking. Second, I should probably drop some lines from the bottom and add some to the top. At this point any of the results below 47 points would be too disastrous to contemplate.
Against the East 1.41
Against the West 1.86
Home 1.42
Away 1.67
First 8 games: 0.88
Since game 8 1.88
First 15 games 1.20
Since game 15 2.0
First Half: 1.41
Second Half 1.86
Final fun fact: NYCFC right now has the same number of both wins and draws as all of last year, and 10 fewer losses.
From now on, split this into at least two points so I can give you at least two "likes"!
I'm too tired to do serious analysis, but two things I'd like to focus on. 1.) We are not missing the playoffs, it's almost impossible now! 2.) I guarantee New England heats up and makes it into one of the spots.
Who would everyone prefer to be our first opponent in the playoffs (out of the top 7 seeds) and does your preference change if we end up with the play-in round? It's tough to answer this now, because you never know who is going to go into the playoffs in strong form until we get there. My preference would be Orlando.
Dream scenario. We finish 2nd. Orlando or NE or DC upset the 3rd seed in the first round elimination game. We then go down to Orlando and get a good road result against a tired team before coming home for leg two.
Just look at the Supporter's Shield standings and compare to our schedule..... with the exception of LA & Dallas, we play the worst 6 of 7 teams in the league for 8 of the games. Nobody could ask for a better schedule than that.
I don't think it works that way.
http://pressbox.mlssoccer.com/content/competition-rules-and-regulations
"The winners of each knockout game will advance to the Conference Semifinals. The lower-seeded winners of the knockout games will face the 1st place teams in the conferences. The higher seeded winners from the knockout games will face the 2nd place teams in the conferences."
It appears the bracket is not static. If 6 beats 3 they do not slot into 3's bracket spot.
Let's say Dallas's schedule is so tough they only get 1.5 PPG the rest of the way down from their 1.83 to date. That's 59 points.
And let's say the Rapids schedule is so hard they also only get 1.5 PPG the rest of the way down from their 1.86 to date. That's 59 points.
And let's say TFC's schedule is so hard that they don't go on a run.
And let's say the LAG schedule is so hard that they don't go on a run.
And let's say the RSL schedule is so hard that they don't go on a run.
To get to 60 points and beat all that NYC needs to go 7-1-2. Yes it could happen but are you really expecting all that, or that Dallas and the Rapids both slip by even more? As a package I give it <5%.
It's a total longshot. The only thing that makes it even reasonably possible is that we have a favorable schedule, with generally easier opponents and no 3-game weeks.
I'm not saying NYCFC will win the SS, but the schedule is there to go on a ridiculous run. LA did not look Invincible last night and playing away from home they are very much mortal.
I would honestly say NE or DC I'd rather have for first opponent. I know we played Orlando twice earlier in the season when we weren't quite in form, but they seem to have our number. Maybe my opinion will change after we play them in a couple of weeks.
The goal for NYCFC should be a top 2 seed in the East and staying out of that mid-week playoff game. It's nice to think about the SS but don't think Dallas (or one of the top Western teams) is going to blow it.
What I get from this chart is NYCFC better keep finding ways to get results on the road.
Also, Philly has a tough road. Only 5 home games left out of 11 total games, while RBNY has a nice favorable 6/10 games at home. Considering both those teams play significantly better at home, bet on RBNY to finish ahead of Philly.
NYCFC's opposition PPG excluding Dallas and LA is 1.01 and for those 2 teams it is 1.76. In my pessimistic moments I wish those 2 games were on the road so if we lose them the remaining schedule would be stratospherically easy with 5 gimme home games, In my optimistic moments I think imagine what the team can do if they win those 2 at home.
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I think the more interesting question than SS is CCL. Let's say that
- DAL wins the US Open.
- COL wins MLS Cup.
- NYCFC finishes somewhere in the top 3 in the East (anywhere, doesn't matter) with only TFC and/or MON above them.
- NYCFC finishes above LA and RSL in SS race.
This is where by brain starts to hurt, but I think NYC could finish ahead of either LA or RSL in the SS race and make it under this scenario. The US gets 4 spots: 1 is the open cup winner and 3 based on MLS results. So if DFC wins the Open Cup and COL wins MLS Cup there are 2 left, and NYC has to beat one of LA or RSL (plus everyone else we're assuming we finish ahead of).
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This scenario is even better, because LA winning the SS, we would still get in. Lets have it play out this way...
- Colorado wins SS
- DAL wins US Open Cup
- LAG wins MLS Cup
- NYCFC finishes behind Toronto and Montreal, but ahead of 4th place team in West
- NYCFC to CCL
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