2016 Playoff Projections, or Hope By The Numbers

[mgarbowski]

Captain Obvious here, but if we're going to hope a certain team wins MLS Cup to help NYCFC make it to Champions League, we might as well hope that it's NYCFC.

ETA: I know the point of the speculation is to devise alternatives routes to MLS Cup. But sometimes Captain Obvious still has to make an appearance.

 

[QuigrNYCFC]

If we win the east, are we guaranteed a CCL bid?

 

[mgarbowski]

If we win the east, are we guaranteed a CCL bid?

Yes, and winning means finishing first, not advancing out of the East to the final

 

[413Blue]

I love talking about strength of schedule and determining which games we will win, but as is the usual for MLS, we will destroy both FCD and LAG and drop some points to some shitty teams.

 

[Gotham Gator]

So, let's talk about a realistic scenario.

Toronto wins the East
Dallas wins SS and the West
Dallas also wins either the MLS Cup or the U.S. Open Cup
LA Galaxy win whichever cup Dallas does not.

In that case, there are two unallocated spots that would go to the next highest ranked U.S. teams by MLS regular season record. The spot that Toronto has for winning the East, and the spot that Dallas has for winning the West.

So, in that case, so long as we are ahead of all other U.S. teams but one in the Supporters' Shield standings, we gain a berth in CCL.

Say the SS standings are...

Dallas
Colorado
Toronto
LA
Montreal
NYCFC

We are in.

 

[FootyLovin]

Reading Gotham Gator mgarbowski SoupInNYC I realize I overcomplicated things way too much. I think it boils down to this.

• If the west team wins the Open Cup, I think we make CCL.

Bam. Done.

Here's why.

• If the west wins CCL, then the 4 US spots will go to who I predict will be the top 4 non-Canadian (eh) finishers in the SS race - namely DAL, COL, LA, NYC - in whatever order you prefer.

The only significant assumptions to this are

• NYCFC finishes ahead of NJ, PHI, RSL.
• None of NJ, PHI, RSL win MLS Cup.

If DAL wins US Open our path is even easier, only having to beat either RSL or LA in SS race, which one no longer mattering.

Bottom line, I'm rooting for (a) us to win out the rest of the season and playoffs and (b) the West to win US Open.

 

[Gene]

To cite a great American philosopher:

Can't get any simpler than that.............

 

[Gotham Gator]

Reading Gotham Gator mgarbowski SoupInNYC I realize I overcomplicated things way too much. I think it boils down to this.

• If the west team wins the Open Cup, I think we make CCL.

Bam. Done.

Here's why.

• If the west wins CCL, then the 4 US spots will go to who I predict will be the top 4 non-Canadian (eh) finishers in the SS race - namely DAL, COL, LA, NYC - in whatever order you prefer.

The only significant assumptions to this are

• NYCFC finishes ahead of NJ, PHI, RSL.
• None of NJ, PHI, RSL win MLS Cup.

If DAL wins US Open our path is even easier, only having to beat either RSL or LA in SS race, which one no longer mattering.

Bottom line, I'm rooting for (a) us to win out the rest of the season and playoffs and (b) the West to win US Open.

Good stuff. Interesting to note that we are currently tied with RSL on points, and they are only 1 ahead of us on goal difference (+1 to 0).

 

[mgarbowski]

Fully revised and updated to reflect a more realistic set of possibilities. It's nice to see we've completely outgrown the set of concerns and expectations we had preseason and early season. Really, looking at these lines it is hard to imagine us not getting at least to the low-50s. Getting just three more wins at this point would be a collapse.

 

[mgarbowski]

Good stuff. Interesting to note that we are currently tied with RSL on points, and they are only 1 ahead of us on goal difference (+1 to 0).

RSL seems to have snuck up int top finisher contention, yet they haven't really been on a tear recently. I guess they've just been better than I noticed. They've won 2 of their last 3 but before that were winless in 6 straight. They have a tough schedule so I think we should finish ahead of them. Six of their last 10 are at home but 4 of those are against Dallas (2), Colorado and the Galaxy. They will have a say in who wins the West and likely who wins SS. They also visit Seattle twice which could be easy or could be tough if Seattle is actually as good as they looked in Orlando.

 

[Viewfrom226]

View attachment 5523

Really, looking at these lines it is hard to imagine us not getting at least to the low-50s. Getting just three more wins at this point would be a collapse.

Sounds right. I had done a version of this a few weeks ago, but here are my updated thoughts on where we should hope to come out. One thing that I think has started to normalize is that we are winning at home and not in fact a never before seen force on the road. This would put us at 55 points, so that is my over/under for people to shoot at.

(1) Home vs. West - 4 points from matches against Dallas and LA. I could easily see us losing one of these matches, but I'll be a bit optimistic.

(2) Away vs. West - 1 point from match against Houston. Not unlike SJ, Houston is tough to beat at home with only one loss, and so I think a draw is the most reasonable expectation even though they are not good.

(3) Home vs. East - 7 points from home vs. DC, Chicago and Columbus. Three teams that are dreadful on the road with one combined win. 9 points should obviously be the goal, but I'm going to hedge bit.

(4) Away vs. East - 6 points from away vs. Columbus, Orlando, New England and DC. These teams don't actually lose that often at home, but it is such a collection of mediocre teams, that I'm going to venture we should be able to get two wins. I could also see 5 points with a win and two draws just as easily.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Sounds right. I had done a version of this a few weeks ago, but here are my updated thoughts on where we should hope to come out. One thing that I think has started to normalize is that we are winning at home and not in fact a never before seen force on the road. This would put us at 55 points, so that is my over/under for people to shoot at.

(1) Home vs. West - 4 points from matches against Dallas and LA. I could easily see us losing one of these matches, but I'll be a bit optimistic.

(2) Away vs. West - 1 point from match against Houston. Not unlike SJ, Houston is tough to beat at home with only one loss, and so I think a draw is the most reasonable expectation even though they are not good.

(3) Home vs. East - 7 points from home vs. DC, Chicago and Columbus. Three teams that are dreadful on the road with one combined win. 9 points should obviously be the goal, but I'm going to hedge bit.

(4) Away vs. East - 6 points from away vs. Columbus, Orlando, New England and DC. These teams don't actually lose that often at home, but it is such a collection of mediocre teams, that I'm going to venture we should be able to get two wins. I could also see 5 points with a win and two draws just as easily.

Nice breakdown, and seems reasonable. I could see us doing a little worse in #1 and a little better in #4, but overall this feels right.

 

[mgarbowski]

Sounds right. I had done a version of this a few weeks ago, but here are my updated thoughts on where we should hope to come out. One thing that I think has started to normalize is that we are winning at home and not in fact a never before seen force on the road. This would put us at 55 points, so that is my over/under for people to shoot at.

(1) Home vs. West - 4 points from matches against Dallas and LA. I could easily see us losing one of these matches, but I'll be a bit optimistic.

(2) Away vs. West - 1 point from match against Houston. Not unlike SJ, Houston is tough to beat at home with only one loss, and so I think a draw is the most reasonable expectation even though they are not good.

(3) Home vs. East - 7 points from home vs. DC, Chicago and Columbus. Three teams that are dreadful on the road with one combined win. 9 points should obviously be the goal, but I'm going to hedge bit.

(4) Away vs. East - 6 points from away vs. Columbus, Orlando, New England and DC. These teams don't actually lose that often at home, but it is such a collection of mediocre teams, that I'm going to venture we should be able to get two wins. I could also see 5 points with a win and two draws just as easily.

I came to the same 18 point, 55 total you did by a different and I guess simpler route. Not better or worse, just different.

Home: A team with our record that seems to have fixed its home woes should win 4 of its last 5 at home, even with 2 of them against good teams.
Away: A team with our Away record should manage 2 more wins in 5 tries. We've already won 3 Away games against teams with only one other home loss. Plus DC is only so-so at home.
Six wins. 18 new points. 55 total. If NYC does worse than this I think it's a disappointment based on current expectations. Based on preseason hopes, it can still be a wild success.
Bonus Stretch Goal: Throw in 2 draws from the other 4 games for 6-2-2, 2.0 PPG over the final stretch. 57 Points total and I think it's a near certainty we finish top 2 in the East. It's very doable.

 

[Gotham Gator]

During a hot, lazy Sunday, I went through the remaining schedules of the top 5 East teams using these parameters...

 

[canchon]

Mr Pibb and Red Vines = Crazy Delicious!

 

[canchon]

6 points. NYCFC has now dropped six points on basically the last kick of the game (MTL, ORL, CLB).

Look back at that when NYCFC doesn't win the East and we all are headed to Yankee Stadium for a Wed night play-in game.

Change those 3 plays and the East is pretty much over right now and a top 2 seed probable.

 

[canchon]

One other item to consider is the the Open Cup final is tentatively scheduled for Sept 21. NYCFC plays FCD on Sept. 17th - possibility that FCD might rest some players with the Open Cup final midweek. Pareja has shown that he will rest players with a congested fixture schedule. Might make that game easier.

 

[mgarbowski]

The last two weeks have tightened things up in the East to the point where the projected PPG for the top 5 teams shows a 5 point spread from 48 to 52 at season end. Anything less than a win against LA gives 2 teams (Toronto and RB) the chance to climb ahead of us in the standings, and Philly and Montreal can get within a game while having games in hand. This cannot all happen because TFC and the Union play each other.



Unlike the weather, NYC is not hot right now. Bluebirds are 6-2-2 in the last 10 but 2-1-2 in the last 5 and 2-2-2 in the last 6. The 4-game win streak is about to come off the 10-game record with each coming game. PlayoffStatus.com has dropped the odds of finishing 1 or 2 to 49%, the first time it’s been below 50% in 3 weeks. I can’t say they’re wrong. Still, the team still has second best odds for that. Right now only TFC is above 50% at 54% and NYRB is at 31%.

The club's “Road Warrior” reputation is based on a single 5-game stretch. NYC started the season 1-2-0 Away. Then undefeated in 5 with 4 wins at 4-0-1. Since then NYC is 1-2-2 on the road. Outside of the 5-game unbeaten streak, NYC has earned 1.0 PPG over 8 games, During those 5 games, NYC earned 2.6 PPG, and at one point was at 2.0 for the season including the first 3.

Still, most teams would love to have 1.0 PPG on the road in all their games and NYC is at 1.62 overall. NYC will also still probably have the best Away record in the league. Dallas and the Galaxy are closest and both need to do better than they have to date to catch the Gotham Blues even if NYC gets 0 road points the rest of the way.

NYC has played more Away games than Home for the first time since Game 1 March 6. Between June 18 and August 20 they will have played just 2 home games in 2 months.

How close are the Pigeons to clinching a playoff spot? About 4 weeks at the minimum. City clinches when it has more points than the maximum possible points for 4 East teams. Chicago’s maximum points is 55, New England and Columbus 56, DC and Orlando 60. City has 38. It will take a minimum of 6 games to bridge those gaps with the Fire, Revs and Crew, and 8 games for DC and Orlando. Any game involving them or us counts; a game between any one of them and the Blue Notes counts as 2. But any time we drop points or they win points extends it. Even though we are a near lock for the playoffs, we probably won’t clinch until the end of September.

Last year the Robber Barons played in the black secondary six times by Game 25, which was actually behind the pace for the year. They wore that kit 10 times overall. This year we have seen the HypnoKit just 3 times, and none of the remaining Away games seem to require it. This only has playoff implications for the hyper-superstitious.

Draws make for boring updates to the what needs to be done chart. Also, we have now drawn more times than all of last year.

 

[Albany_NYCFC]

The last two weeks have tightened things up in the East to the point where the projected PPG for the top 5 teams shows a 5 point spread from 48 to 52 at season end. Anything less than a win against LA gives 2 teams (Toronto and RB) the chance to climb ahead of us in the standings, and Philly and Montreal can get within a game while having games in hand. This cannot all happen because TFC and the Union play each other.

View attachment 5564

Unlike the weather, NYC is not hot right now. Bluebirds are 6-2-2 in the last 10 but 2-1-2 in the last 5 and 2-2-2 in the last 6. The 4-game win streak is about to come off the 10-game record with each coming game. PlayoffStatus.com has dropped the odds of finishing 1 or 2 to 49%, the first time it’s been below 50% in 3 weeks. I can’t say they’re wrong. Still, the team still has second best odds for that. Right now only TFC is above 50% at 54% and NJRB is at 31%.

The club's “Road Warrior” reputation is based on a single 5-game stretch. NYC started the season 1-2-0 Away. Then undefeated in 5 with 4 wins at 4-0-1. Since then NYC is 1-2-2 on the road. Outside of the 5-game unbeaten streak, NYC has earned 1.0 PPG over 8 games, During those 5 games, NYC earned 2.6 PPG, and at one point was at 2.0 for the season including the first 3.

Still, most teams would love to have 1.0 PPG on the road in all their games and NYC is at 1.62 overall. NYC will also still probably have the best Away record in the league. Dallas and the Galaxy are closest and both need to do better than they have to date to catch the Gotham Blues even if NYC gets 0 road points the rest of the way.

NYC has played more Away games than Home for the first time since Game 1 March 6. Between June 18 and August 20 they will have played just 2 home games in 2 months.

How close are the Pigeons to clinching a playoff spot? About 4 weeks at the minimum. City clinches when it has more points than the maximum possible points for 4 East teams. Chicago’s maximum points is 55, New England and Columbus 56, DC and Orlando 60. City has 38. It will take a minimum of 6 games to bridge those gaps with the Fire, Revs and Crew, and 8 games for DC and Orlando. Any game involving them or us counts; a game between any one of them and the Blue Notes counts as 2. But any time we drop points or they win points adds extends it. Even though we are a near lock for the playoffs, we probably won’t clinch until the end of September.

Last year the Robber Barons played in the black secondary six times by Game 25, which was actually behind the pace for the year. They wore that kit 10 times overall. This year we have seen the HypnoKit just 3 times, and none of the remaining Away games seem to require it. This only has playoff implications for the hyper-superstitious.

Draws make for boring updates to the what needs to be done chart. Also, we have now drawn more times than all of last year.
View attachment 5566

Great write up! Perfect way to start the week! I like how you mixed in all our circulating nicknames...... My takeaway is that I like bluebirds the best.......

 

[Gotham Gator]

Updated chart showing strength of schedule.