2016 Playoff Projections, or Hope By The Numbers

[CCMore]

MLS must also have an Intern following this thread

http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2016/...referral&utm_content=News&utm_campaign=Unpaid
Their conclusions are about the same as ours I believe

 

[Ulrich]

MLS must also have an Intern following this thread

http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2016/...referral&utm_content=News&utm_campaign=Unpaid
Their conclusions are about the same as ours I believe

Notice the last part of the webaddress is Unpaid - that's the Intern's signature.

But in all seriousness, I've notice A LOT of outlets write up material in the days after it appears on the Forums, and I do not think it's a coincidence.... The Forums are a vast pool of ideas that bloggers seem to be cribbing from. It'd be great if they tagged their pieces back to the posts/threads, but they don't and to me that epitomizes why they're only bloggers and not real journalists.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Notice the last part of the webaddress is Unpaid - that's the Intern's signature.

But in all seriousness, I've notice A LOT of outlets write up material in the days after it appears on the Forums, and I do not think it's a coincidence.... The Forums are a vast pool of ideas that bloggers seem to be cribbing from. It'd be great if they tagged their pieces back to the posts/threads, but they don't and to me that epitomizes why they're only bloggers and not real journalists.

Honestly, it makes sense from a starting point at least. Take the Stadium Discussion thread. I know there's a lot of junk in there (and I love it all) but there is a lot of work that passionate fans have spent time analyzing google maps, reading through articles noting property sales, we've even discussed zoning requirements, time for construction, I think I even remembered seeing something in there in regards to flooding zones and lots of other technical stuff that passionate fans spent the time and work doing not because they are looking to get paid but because they care a ton about it.

A blogger can take a few of those ideas, put in some additional research, and bam out goes a post.

Would be nice though to see a random shoutout to some of our usernames though, haha. Hell, throw in a few Midas Mulligan quotes for some great color commentary.

 

[413Blue]

Hell, throw in a few Midas Mulligan quotes for some great color commentary.

Only the brits do that, and we all know how respected the british media is for their high journalistic standards!

 

[Ulrich]

Honestly, it makes sense from a starting point at least. Take the Stadium Discussion thread. I know there's a lot of junk in there (and I love it all) but there is a lot of work that passionate fans have spent time analyzing google maps, reading through articles noting property sales, we've even discussed zoning requirements, time for construction, I think I even remembered seeing something in there in regards to flooding zones and lots of other technical stuff that passionate fans spent the time and work doing not because they are looking to get paid but because they care a ton about it.

A blogger can take a few of those ideas, put in some additional research, and bam out goes a post.

Would be nice though to see a random shoutout to some of our usernames though, haha. Hell, throw in a few Midas Mulligan quotes for some great color commentary.

Perhaps, but many times it doesn't even seem as if any additional research has been done - just a repackaging of 2 pages of thread.

 

[northernburbs]

Only the brits do that, and we all know how respected the british media is for their high journalistic standards!

I think its only the British papers that are suspect. I watch the BBC World news most mornings for an unbiased view.

 

[snugglefarts]

Dilly ding dilly dong! We're finally over 40 points!

 

[mgarbowski]

NYC averages 3.0 PPG without Patrick Viera as gameday coach in 2016, and only 1.46 with him. Something needs to be done about this.

Gator has the strength of schedule covered in another thread. In sum, we have the easiest schedule based on opponent records and Toronto has advantage of the best Home/Away setup. Here’s how the contenders compare on H/A:

NYC 4H 4A
TOR 6H 3A
RB 5H 3A
PHI 4H 5A
MTL 5H 5A

Based on Gator’s numbers, the H/A, current point totals and recent form, I see the teams with a shot of finishing first in the East, in order of likelihood, as Toronto, NYC, and RB. I see a small gap between Toronto and NYC, very close to 50-50, and a bigger gap between NYC and RB. Anybody else is a very long shot. Even RB is starting to look iffy. Even if they catch NYC there is still Toronto and vice-versa, and the time is running short to catch 2 teams.

Toronto and NYRB have the 2 longest undefeated streaks in MLS right now. RB is 3-0-5 in their last 8 which is the longest streak. That’s only so-so for an undefeated streak but they are killer at home and have 5 of 8 in Harrison which is their only hope. Toronto is 5-0-1 in the last 6. They are 6-1-3 in the last 10. They lost 4 times in their first 10 games and 3 times in the last 15. Getting that win in Philly was huge for them. They are tied with Dallas and RSL for second most road wins and have the most favorable H/A variance remaining. We need someone to step up and stop them. We might need to be rooting for the Red Bulls on September 18. Whether you pick Toronto or NYC for first in the East arguably comes down to whether you think they are just on a hot streak that can end without warning, or you think they've put it all together at the right time and will finish just as strong.

Playoff clinching update: there is a minimum of 6 games combined needed to clinch finishing ahead of Columbus, DC and Orlando. For New England and Chicago the number is 5. Every time one of these teams gets a result pushes that further away, but also very likely helps us against the other top contenders.

A Historic Line Crossing: for the first time in NYCFC history the team has more points than the projected playoff line. The latter stands at 40 and NYC has 41 points. If the team were to lose out there's a decent chance they would still make the playoffs.


Record against the West 5-2-1 2.00 PPG
Record against the East 6-5-7 1.39 PPG

NYC's Home record is now effectively the same as its Away. They played 13 at Home and 13 Away and have earned 20 points at Home and 21 Away. In terms of statistical confidence that's a meaningless difference. The last 5 games trend heavily favors Home: 4-1-0 2.4 PPG against 1-2-2- Away 1.0 PPG. These are guesses, but I think there’s roughly a 50% chance NYC wins out at home, and maybe a 10-20% chance they get no more road wins.

Figuring a way to get five wins gets a minimum of 56 points. I think the First Place line is likely to be right near there at the least. I very much doubt it will be lower, as that requires that both Toronto and NYC slip. If Toronto stays hot or NYC starts a streak, it could be higher.

 

[mgarbowski]

This site seems to have resumed regular updates:
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/NYCFC.html
It says we need 60 points to have a better than 50% chance at Supporters Shield, 55 points is 50%+ to finish first in the East, and 52 points to finish at least second and get a bye.

http://playoffstatus.com/mls/easternstandings.html has Toronto at 43% to win the East, NYC at 37%, and RB at 9%.
NYC's chance of finishing first or second is up to 71%. I have to think 5-6% of that is thanks to Patrick Mullins last night. What an awesome trade.

 

[adam]

NYC averages 3.0 PPG without Patrick Viera as gameday coach in 2016, and only 1.46 with him. Something needs to be done about this.

Gator has the strength of schedule covered in another thread. In sum, we have the easiest schedule based on opponent records and Toronto has advantage of the best Home/Away setup. Here’s how the contenders compare on H/A:

NYC 4H 4A
TOR 6H 3A
RB 5H 3A
PHI 4H 5A
MTL 5H 5A

Based on Gator’s numbers, the H/A, current point totals and recent form, I see the teams with a shot of finishing first in the East, in order of likelihood, as Toronto, NYC, and RB. I see a small gap between Toronto and NYC, very close to 50-50, and a bigger gap between NYC and RB. Anybody else is a very long shot. Even RB is starting to look iffy. Even if they catch NYC there is still Toronto and vice-versa, and the time is running short to catch 2 teams.

Toronto and NJRB have the 2 longest undefeated streaks in MLS right now. RB is 3-0-5 in their last 8 which is the longest streak. That’s only so-so for an undefeated streak but they are killer at home and have 5 of 8 in Harrison which is their only hope. Toronto is 5-0-1 in the last 6. They are 6-1-3 in the last 10. They lost 4 times in their first 10 games and 3 times in the last 15. Getting that win in Philly was huge for them. They are tied with Dallas and RSL for second most road wins and have the most favorable H/A variance remaining. We need someone to step up and stop them. We might need to be rooting for the Red Bulls on September 18. Whether you pick Toronto or NYC for first in the East arguably comes down to whether you think they are just on a hot streak that can end without warning, or you think they've put it all together at the right time and will finish just as strong.

Playoff clinching update: there is a minimum of 6 games combined needed to clinch finishing ahead of Columbus, DC and Orlando. For New England and Chicago the number is 5. Every time one of these teams gets a result pushes that further away, but also very likely helps us against the other top contenders.

A Historic Line Crossing: for the first time in NYCFC history the team has more points than the projected playoff line. The latter stands at 40 and NYC has 41 points. If the team were to lose out there's a decent chance they would still make the playoffs.
View attachment 5600

Record against the West 5-2-1 2.00 PPG
Record against the East 6-5-7 1.39 PPG

NYC's Home record is now effectively the same as its Away. They played 13 at Home and 13 Away and have earned 20 points at Home and 21 Away. In terms of statistical confidence that's a meaningless difference. The last 5 games trend heavily favors Home: 4-1-0 2.4 PPG against 1-2-2- Away 1.0 PPG. These are guesses, but I think there’s roughly a 50% chance NYC wins out at home, and maybe a 10-20% chance they get no more road wins.

Figuring a way to get five wins gets a minimum of 56 points. I think the First Place line is likely to be right near there at the least. I very much doubt it will be lower, as that requires that both Toronto and NYC slip. If Toronto stays hot or NYC starts a streak, it could be higher.
View attachment 5601

Amazing write up as always. Just remember, when thinking about us losing out and still making the playoffs, The Pigoens would be losing to other conference teams on the bubble and potentially moving the playoff line slightly higher. But let's not think about such a scenario, it was just a hupothetical.

 

[Ulrich]

NYC averages 3.0 PPG without Patrick Viera as gameday coach in 2016, and only 1.46 with him. Something needs to be done about this.

Gator has the strength of schedule covered in another thread. In sum, we have the easiest schedule based on opponent records and Toronto has advantage of the best Home/Away setup. Here’s how the contenders compare on H/A:

NYC 4H 4A
TOR 6H 3A
RB 5H 3A
PHI 4H 5A
MTL 5H 5A

Based on Gator’s numbers, the H/A, current point totals and recent form, I see the teams with a shot of finishing first in the East, in order of likelihood, as Toronto, NYC, and RB. I see a small gap between Toronto and NYC, very close to 50-50, and a bigger gap between NYC and RB. Anybody else is a very long shot. Even RB is starting to look iffy. Even if they catch NYC there is still Toronto and vice-versa, and the time is running short to catch 2 teams.

Toronto and NJRB have the 2 longest undefeated streaks in MLS right now. RB is 3-0-5 in their last 8 which is the longest streak. That’s only so-so for an undefeated streak but they are killer at home and have 5 of 8 in Harrison which is their only hope. Toronto is 5-0-1 in the last 6. They are 6-1-3 in the last 10. They lost 4 times in their first 10 games and 3 times in the last 15. Getting that win in Philly was huge for them. They are tied with Dallas and RSL for second most road wins and have the most favorable H/A variance remaining. We need someone to step up and stop them. We might need to be rooting for the Red Bulls on September 18. Whether you pick Toronto or NYC for first in the East arguably comes down to whether you think they are just on a hot streak that can end without warning, or you think they've put it all together at the right time and will finish just as strong.

Playoff clinching update: there is a minimum of 6 games combined needed to clinch finishing ahead of Columbus, DC and Orlando. For New England and Chicago the number is 5. Every time one of these teams gets a result pushes that further away, but also very likely helps us against the other top contenders.

A Historic Line Crossing: for the first time in NYCFC history the team has more points than the projected playoff line. The latter stands at 40 and NYC has 41 points. If the team were to lose out there's a decent chance they would still make the playoffs.
View attachment 5600

Record against the West 5-2-1 2.00 PPG
Record against the East 6-5-7 1.39 PPG

NYC's Home record is now effectively the same as its Away. They played 13 at Home and 13 Away and have earned 20 points at Home and 21 Away. In terms of statistical confidence that's a meaningless difference. The last 5 games trend heavily favors Home: 4-1-0 2.4 PPG against 1-2-2- Away 1.0 PPG. These are guesses, but I think there’s roughly a 50% chance NYC wins out at home, and maybe a 10-20% chance they get no more road wins.

Figuring a way to get five wins gets a minimum of 56 points. I think the First Place line is likely to be right near there at the least. I very much doubt it will be lower, as that requires that both Toronto and NYC slip. If Toronto stays hot or NYC starts a streak, it could be higher.
View attachment 5601

With all that said, it points to NYCFC being the one team the West does not want to meet in the Cup Final. We've effectively owned the West this season save for a hiccup or two after shitty scheduling, and we travel well, better than anybody else in the league. Those are both factors for them to be wary of.

 

[sonastride]

Our rivals are in the East for sure. NJRB and TFC are definitely who will trouble us when we face them in the playoffs which will be our toughest test. Once we get past those, we sure have a chance against any of the West teams that make it to the Cup Final but I'm getting ahead of myself though it doesn't hurt to dream no?

 

[Viewfrom226]

Our success against the west is somewhat skewed by the fact that we play, or have played, all of the top west teams at home except SKC, who killed us.

Mostly, I think the past few months have shown that we are a normal good MLS team. We generally win at home and are capable of playing the odd good match on the road (eg, Montreal) and nicking some other points.

The beginning of the season was so unusual, but it is starting to become clear to me that there really isn't much different about us than other strong teams.

Good week for us this week if the primary goal is to get top 2, which is my priority. Hopefully Orlando can do us a favor against Toronto on Weds and then be good and tired for Sunday.

 

[Viewfrom226]

Figuring a way to get five wins gets a minimum of 56 points. I think the First Place line is likely to be right near there at the least. I very much doubt it will be lower, as that requires that both Toronto and NYC slip. If Toronto stays hot or NYC starts a streak, it could be higher.
View attachment 5601

56 seems right around the over/under, though maybe just a point or so higher than where I would actually set it if I were an odds maker

Home - 10 points from DC United, Dallas, Chicago and Columbus. That feels pretty doable, though ever predicting 10 out of 12 points is a bit risky.

Road - 5 points from Orlando, New England, DC United and Houston. Again, feels doable but far from a sure thing.

If I had to guess, we come in slightly below in one of the two categories, but there should be a bit of upside on the road games, particularly if New England continues to completely meltdown, including two straight bad losses at home.

 

[sonastride]

Man you guys are a great at analyzing all these details and what-ifs. I usually don't post on these boards often although I do have season tickets and have lurked these forums mostly for this thread and the Stadium Discussion. Thank you so much for all this wonderful analysis.

 

[Ulrich]

Man you guys are a great at analyzing all these details and what-ifs. I usually don't post on these boards often although I do have season tickets and have lurked these forums mostly for this thread and the Stadium Discussion. Thank you so much for all this wonderful analysis.

That's rather impressive that you've lurked through the Stadium Discussion without commenting.... holding back has been known to send STH to therapy to work out their seating frustrations and spectating issues....

 

[sonastride]

That's rather impressive that you've lurked through the Stadium Discussion without commenting.... holding back has been known to send STH to therapy to work out their seating frustrations and spectating issues....

Funny you say that because I hadn't seen a home game since April until the Colorado game in July and I was surprised to see the TV in my section was finally functioning. Almost everyone in my section had complained about the TV including me multiple times to management because that TV was not working since the beginning of last season.

Digressing from the thread topic...I can see now why it happens in the Stadium Discussion.

 

[mgarbowski]

Moreover, If TFC gets just 7 or 8 points in their next 5 tough games they are in very good shape even if NYC gets 18-20 more points overall. TFC is very likely to get 12 points in their last 6, with 5 of them at home against weak road teams. So 8 + 12 would mean 20 points in their last 11 and 56 total. NYC needs to go 6-2-2 to beat that. That’s doable, but I’d feel a lot better if TFC gets say, 5 or 6 points in the next 5 games.

Toronto just got 7 points in just the first 3 of those 5 games. First Place is looking pretty damn unlikely right now, unless Toronto suddenly collapses, and soon, or NYC wins out. Damn.

 

[Ulrich]

Toronto just got 7 points in just the first 3 of those 5 games. First Place is looking pretty damn unlikely right now, unless Toronto suddenly collapses, and soon, or NYC wins out. Damn.

That Toronto win hurts. Kreis sucked at NYCFC and he is sucking at Orlando. The more things change the more they stay the same.

 

[NYC24]

That Toronto win hurts. Kreis sucked at NYCFC and he is sucking at Orlando. The more things change the more they stay the same.

I imagine before he accepted the Orlando job he was speaking to the GM and said something along the lines of "I just want to make sure we have a porous, practically non-existent back line. That's my kind of squad. And those are the kind of guys you build around."