2016 Playoff Projections, or Hope By The Numbers
- Thread starter mgarbowski
- Start date
The good news is these teams are going to beat up on each other. We need to just grind out some points, because these teams will begin to drop points as they play against each other. Depending on how things shake out after this next set of games, we may want Toronto to win their matchups against Philly/NJ/Montreal..
Remaining Schedules:
Giovinco is out for 4 weeks.
http://www.torontofc.ca/post/2016/08/29/injury-update-giovinco-chapman-and-morgan
http://www.torontofc.ca/post/2016/08/29/injury-update-giovinco-chapman-and-morgan
Fantasy MLS just got a whole lot more interesting. He's owned by nearly 70% of teams. This also provides Villa the opportunity to get MLS MVP. I think he's dropped in the rankings over the past couple of games.
I just realized that NYCFC not only gets Dallas after the Open Cup, more importantly, NYCFC plays the Revolution 3 days before the Open Cup final:
Sep 10 - NYCFC @ Revolution
Sep 13 - Open Cup Final (Revs at Dallas)
Sep 18 - Dallas @ NYCFC
No way NYCFC gets a full-strength Revs squad as the Open Cup final is 3 days later, and will get either a weakened and/or tired Dallas squad.
Sep 10 - NYCFC @ Revolution
Sep 13 - Open Cup Final (Revs at Dallas)
Sep 18 - Dallas @ NYCFC
No way NYCFC gets a full-strength Revs squad as the Open Cup final is 3 days later, and will get either a weakened and/or tired Dallas squad.
Getting a team on short rest should mean nothing anymore. While we haven't been exactly world-beaters in these instances, we've shown plenty of struggles regardless of the "advantage".
I thought we would win out our remaining 8 games. Orlando messed up that dream. Now I think we will win out our remaining seven games.
Via 21 goals from Mix?
The probability of us winning our remaining seven is greater than that of Mix scoring just one hat trick, maybe even a single goal, maybe even getting more than 90 minutes.
If Mix is leaving us at the end of the year, maybe, just maybe if we're locked into first or second place by the last game of the season, Vieira will start Mix as a send off for all the fans like myself that want see him SCORE A HAT TRICK!
You know. It just hit me that this is funny because Mix only sells hats. It's actually just a big Hat Trick that he plays soccer for us
I'm taking the UNDER on Mix getting 1 minute on the field for the rest of this season.
And then we can start the "Mix buyout" countdown until business opens for next year.
That's almost worth taking the bet. 1 minute is nothing and wouldn't be surprised if he was thrown a bone the last game if nothing is riding on it. It's like you're bidding on the Price is Right as the first bidder and you choose $1
Not sure if this page has been linked here yet, but some interesting stats: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/NYCFC.html
Interesting stuff, thanks.
So, with 7 more games, these simulations say that we are basically 100% to make the playoffs (even if we lost every remaining game, we'd be at 44%).
Here is how seeding factors in.
To be better than 50% to get #1 seed, 14 more points.
To be better than 50% to get Top 2 seed, 11 more points.
To be better than 50% to get Top 4 seed (i.e. home playoff game), 6 more points.
Translation:
Better have a strong end of year to finish top 2...and barring a complete meltdown will at worst be hosting the mid-week play-in game. We'll take it.
Lets face it. Losing to NE this week officially knocks us out of the race for the Supporters Shield. Toronto has a 2 point lead and a very favorable schedule for the rest of the season. They are big favorites for the Conference title at this point.
Unless we win the East or MLS Cup, CCL is not realistic either with Dallas, LA, COL and RSL all ahead of us right now.
2nd Seed and a first round bye is still realistic. NJRB has the tiebreaker, but dropping 2 points by allowing 2 goals in the last 8 minutes to DC changed the race. There are 2 NJRB-PHI games left. We have the more favorable schedule and can finish strong.
Hopefully PV gets TMac and RJ back in the starting lineup, we average 3 goals a game for the rest of the season and get the second seed or first if Toronto chokes (again).
Unless we win the East or MLS Cup, CCL is not realistic either with Dallas, LA, COL and RSL all ahead of us right now.
2nd Seed and a first round bye is still realistic. NJRB has the tiebreaker, but dropping 2 points by allowing 2 goals in the last 8 minutes to DC changed the race. There are 2 NJRB-PHI games left. We have the more favorable schedule and can finish strong.
Hopefully PV gets TMac and RJ back in the starting lineup, we average 3 goals a game for the rest of the season and get the second seed or first if Toronto chokes (again).
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I agree with pretty much everything here in terms of what is reasonable and realistic. If we get to 2nd and get the first round bye, I think that is a good outcome given where things sit today.
Maybe I'm just behind the times, but I'm still content to even being in the play offs after the train wreck that was last season. It will make me even more happy if Orlando doesn't make it because to me they are our benchmark for also being a 2nd year club. Plus I want to see their coach fall on his ass and implode all of the "No One understands MLS but MLS" people. I don't know if it makes me a simpler man for being content with just being in the playoffs but as a 2nd year club I never would expect a team to be winning a cup. I feel it's a little bit ridiculous to believe that. We are still rough around the edges but I wouldn't be disappointed to have just gotten a play off birth.
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