2016 Playoff Projections, or Hope By The Numbers

[SoupInNYC]

Lets face it. Losing to NE this week officially knocks us out of the race for the Supporters Shield. Toronto has a 2 point lead and a very favorable schedule for the rest of the season. They are big favorites for the Conference title at this point.

Unless we win the East or MLS Cup, CCL is not realistic either with Dallas, LA, COL and RSL all ahead of us right now.

2nd Seed and a first round bye is still realistic. NJRB has the tiebreaker, but dropping 2 points by allowing 2 goals in the last 8 minutes to DC changed the race. There are 2 NJRB-PHI games left. We have the more favorable schedule and can finish strong.

Hopefully PV gets TMac and RJ back in the starting lineup, we average 3 goals a game for the rest of the season and get the second seed or first if Toronto chokes (again).

This is kind of why when looking forward at the schedule a couple weeks ago and all the games that NJRB, Toronto, Philly, and Montreal had against each other, it was a bit difficult to tell who we want to win what match.

At this point, after losing to NE and where we currently sit, I definitely want Toronto to beat NJRB this upcoming weekend (whereas had we won against NE, maybe hope it ends in a draw or something).

I do think we are in essence "out" of the Supporters Shield race at this point. But I wouldn't completely discount winning the East, though it does not appear likely. Toronto still has games against Philly, Montreal, and NJRB. Our schedule looks pretty favorable right now and honestly could support a great regular season-ending run. Though after our performance Saturday, I'm in no means expecting that.

Its crunch time. These last several weeks will both be fun and stressful.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Maybe I'm just behind the times, but I'm still content to even being in the play offs after the train wreck that was last season. It will make me even more happy if Orlando doesn't make it because to me they are our benchmark for also being a 2nd year club. Plus I want to see their coach fall on his ass and implode all of the "No One understands MLS but MLS" people. I don't know if it makes me a simpler man for being content with just being in the playoffs but as a 2nd year club I never would expect a team to be winning a cup. I feel it's a little bit ridiculous to believe that. We are still rough around the edges but I wouldn't be disappointed to have just gotten a play off birth.

Definitely agree with you to a certain extent. But given the position we are currently in and our remaining schedule, we should be able to grab a top-2 spot. I'll be slightly disappointed if we can't. But that doesn't mean I'll look at the season as a failure if we don't achieve that.

 

[JayH]

Maybe I'm just behind the times, but I'm still content to even being in the play offs after the train wreck that was last season. It will make me even more happy if Orlando doesn't make it because to me they are our benchmark for also being a 2nd year club. Plus I want to see their coach fall on his ass and implode all of the "No One understands MLS but MLS" people. I don't know if it makes me a simpler man for being content with just being in the playoffs but as a 2nd year club I never would expect a team to be winning a cup. I feel it's a little bit ridiculous to believe that. We are still rough around the edges but I wouldn't be disappointed to have just gotten a play off birth.

I think given that: we have been in first place late into the season, we would potentially be in the race for the SS but for some hiccups, we have handily beaten the best teams in the league, and when we are playing on point we are close to unbeatable, have all raised the expectation bar much higher. Before the season, I think that aiming for the playoffs was a reasonable goal, but given our trajectory, a one-and-done would be disappointing to me even upon reflection. I don't think that your thoughts are unreasonable though, and make a lot of sense. And I do still think that wherever we end up (in fact, even if we win it all), we remain a work-in-progress with a ton of room for improvement.

 

[Sabo]

We would have to bomb the last 5 games not to have a home playoff matchup. We can do better, but who wouldn't have been happy with that result in April?

 

[canchon]

I think the picture will clear up a lot in the next 2 weeks or so. NYCFC has 2 home games and Toronto has 3 home games (making up the game in hand). RBNY also plays Toronto next week. If Toronto takes care of business, they could be well in front with just 3 games to go. If NYCFC wants the 2 seed, it pretty much needs to win both of these home games with 2 out of the last 3 on the road.

NYCFC"s recent form is abysmal compared to the two teams they are chasing for the top 2 spots - NYCFC haven't won a road game in several months, while Toronto has won 2 in the last few weeks and RBNY has even won one (by the way the last game RBNY lost was to NYCFC back on July 3rd. Yikes.)

Would be great to get top 2, but most likely NYCFC plays the mid-week game against ORL/NER/DCU. Given how NYCFC has played recently against these 3 teams, don't see that as easy at all. (Yes, NYCFC beat DCU, but was pretty much outplayed for 2/3 of the game there).

 

[canchon]

We would have to bomb the last 5 games not to have a home playoff matchup. We can do better, but who wouldn't have been happy with that result in April?

Not if NYCFC wins a mid-week playoff game and then has to play Leg 1 against NYRB on 2 days rest. That is pretty much a nightmare scenario - and isn't too far-fetched if NYRB finishes 2 and NYCFC finishes 3. That is set up for disaster.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Not if NYCFC wins a mid-week playoff game and then has to play Leg 1 against NJRB on 2 days rest. That is pretty much a nightmare scenario - and isn't too far-fetched if NJRB finishes 2 and NYCFC finishes 3. That is set up for disaster.

Precisely. Finishing Top 2 is key, and we have the schedule and talent to get there. That's what I want.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Thought I would post this here, as it is very relevant to discussions of our possible seeding.

First column is the average points per game of each team's remaining opponents.

Here are remaining games for each team against opponents currently above the playoff line.

Toronto: NJRB, Philly, Orlando, at Montreal
NJRB: at Toronto, Montreal, Philly, at Philly
NYCFC: Dallas
Philly: at Portland, at Toronto, at NJRB, Orlando, at NJRB
Montreal: at NJRB, at Orlando, Toronto

 

[canchon]

Precisely. Finishing Top 2 is key, and we have the schedule and talent to get there. That's what I want.

Yup, in that nightmare scenario NYCFC loses 4-1 in the first leg and series is over.

Most likely NYCFC will not finish below 4th, but I think they really need to finish 1 or 2 to make a run. Otherwise they most likely get bounced in the semis even if they win the play-in game.

 

[Sabo]

Yup, in that nightmare scenario NYCFC loses 4-1 in the first leg and series is over.

Most likely NYCFC will not finish below 4th, but I think they really need to finish 1 or 2 to make a run. Otherwise they most likely get bounced in the semis even if they win the play-in game.

I have to disagree with you on that. Unless the midweek game goes to extra time or one of the two games are in really poor weather we have 3 superstars who have a track record of rising up for the biggest games.

The biggest problem with the first round is that with the one-off format the weaker team has a better chance at winning than at a home and away series.

We eliminate any chance of losing the first round we are more likely to win the Cup.

 

[LionNYC]

Say we're the 3rd seed, with the Red Bulls getting the 2nd. We'd play that midweek game and then host the first leg. So no travel and the game the next week would just be across the river. Obviously, I'd prefer to have the bye but still it's not absolutely miserable.

However, I have a strong feeling we win our last five. And we beat Dallas this week 4-1.

 

[canchon]

I checked to see how NYCFC actually performed the weekend after playing a midweek game so far this year.

They've done it 3 times: 1 win and 2 losses.

In April, NYCFC beat Vancouver 3-2 at home after playing Montreal at home mid-week.

Their second game was the 7-0 RBNY loss at home after playing away mid-week (at Toronto).

The final instance of this was where NYCFC lost 3-1 to SKC away after playing away mid-week (at New England).

In the last two instances they got completely blown off the field, which is why it is concerning. What would make the playoffs better would be no travel (assuming 3 or 4 seed), however no one could be rested because you have to win the mid-week playoff or go home.

 

[roxfontaine]

This is going to be a hell of a roller coaster finish to the season.

 

[Sabo]

Eastern Conference playoff travel for NYCFC shouldn't be a significant factor this year.

Chicago and Columbus are out. Of the remaining possible playoff teams (TOR, NJRB, PHI, MON, NE) the only one involving significant travel to the opening game of the semis is Orlando, but for that to happen:

1) Orlando has to make the playoffs; and
2) Not play NYCFC in the first round; and
3) Get the upset win on the road in the first round involving significant travel.

Otherwise the travel for our first road playoff game should be the equivalent of long travel for a domestic England/Spain/Italy match -- nothing our vets can't handle during crunch time.

Obviously we don't want to have a mid-week playoff game and then go to BMO Field, but the travel aspect should not be a killer for us.

 

[Ulrich]

This is going to be a hell of a roller coaster finish to the season.

puke fest......

 

[sbrylski]

I think Toronto is going to completely coast to the top spot. But I think the Red Bulls will choke the #2 spot away. They are prone to inconsistency, and I think Philly will have their number (who themselves will finish with 49/50 points). This'll go down to the final week.

Toronto FC - 58 Points
vRed Bulls - W 2-1
vPhilly - W 2-0
vOrlando - W 1-1
vDCU - D 0-0
@Montreal - D 1-1
vChicago - D 0-0

NYCFC - 52 Points
vDallas - W 2-0
vChicago - D 1-1
@Houtson - D 0-0
@DCU - L 1-3
vColumbus - W 2-1

New York Red Bulls - 50 Points
@Toronto - L 1-2
vMontreal - W 3-1
vPhilly - L 1-2
vColumbus - W 4-0
@Philly - L 2-3

 

[Gotham Gator]

I can see all that happening. That final week of simultaneous games is going to be intense.

 

[danger]

No disrespect to you all but this thread stinks without mgarbowski

 

[NYCFCfan]

puke fest......

I want to get off Mr. Vieira's wild ride

 

[Gotham Gator]

No disrespect to you all but this thread stinks without mgarbowski

Yeah, where the heck is he?

EDIT: I missed this discussion.

http://nycfcforums.com/index.php?th...y-rb-w-o-the-hyphen-to-njrb-is-bullshit.4814/