Toronto played a 3 man backline including Josh Williams -- that is no excuse for the result.
2016 Playoff Projections, or Hope By The Numbers
- Thread starter mgarbowski
- Start date
The one thing Kreis could do at NYCFC was beat Toronto going 2-0-1. Two 2-0 wins, one at home and one away, and the 4-4 match at home.
Yes, highest American team in each conference gets the bid unless aid team earned a bid on other scenarios such as winning the US Open Cup and/or MLS Cup).
No.
A conference winner is guaranteed a spot if American, but each conference is not guaranteed a spot. If Toronto wins East then that spot goes to the American team with the highest record in MLS who does not otherwise qualify. Then our best hope is that some team qualifies in multiple ways letting the "best record" spots trickle down. EG Dallas wins West, MLS Cup, and Open Cup. TFC wins East. Then 3 next best US records in MLS qualify. But Dallas's hold on SS and the West is slipping.
Repped for confident delivery of incorrect info.
I think we really just have to hope that (A) we finish top 4 among US teams in SS and (B) that Dallas beats NE for US Open. If that happens, we have a very high likelihood of getting CCL.
Or of course, win the East and/or MLS Cup.
I really don't feel like going through the vast number of possibilities, but this could very well not work.
Dallas wins US Open - Spot 1.
Colorado Wins West - Spot 2 (not a given but reasonably likely).
Dallas and Colorado remain 2 of the US teams ahead of us.
TFC Wins East - no spot.
Any other US team wins MLS Cup - Spot 3.
That leaves 1 spot for next best record which goes to US team #3 in Ss standings.
So if we come in 4th among US teams we don't get a spot, unless No. 3 (most likely LAG or RSL right now) is the team who wins MLS Cup.
On the plus side, we currently have the #3 best US record in MLS, ahead of LAG and RSL and could very well stay there. Then the scenario works much better.
The alternates are all based on SS standings. The primary ways of winning are:
- Win MLS Cup
- Win US Open Cup
- Win Your Conference (2 spots)*
* Technically, I believe the rules provide that 1 spot goes to SS winner, and 1 to the winner of the Conference that did not win the Supporters Shield, but it is simpler and fully accurate to think of as Win Your Conference.
To date, the only MLS team I am happy to see lose each week is the Red Bulls. I'm liking the fact that, for the rest of the season, all City fans will be watching the fixtures to see if Toronto loses. Build up that rivalry.
Would love a City-Metro then City-Toronto set of postseason matchups. Two of those three teams will come back next year with the rivalry notch turned up one barleycorn.
Would love a City-Metro then City-Toronto set of postseason matchups. Two of those three teams will come back next year with the rivalry notch turned up one barleycorn.
Do you think my "City" refers to Orlando City? I'm talking about us.
But yes, I agree. I don't consider Orlando a rival at all.
It obviously refers to us. All I'm saying is that I think we already have a rivalry with Toronto built on matches and fan engagement. A rivalry that is better than Toronto.
You are correct about all of that. The reason I say our chances are very good is that in your scenario above a low seed would have to win MLS Cup. So LAG would have to finish above us in SS with RSL winning MLS Cup from a lower #4 seed or vice versa. Plausible but less likely. Or NJ/PHI would have to win MLS Cup. From a 3-5 seed spot. I wouldn't put my money there.
All of these are possible. I'm just saying that if DAL win US Open and we finish top 4 in SS, I like our chances at CCL.
Fair point. My dark horse concern would be Seattle, who won't have a high seed probably but seem to be making a run.
Hypothetical question regarding strategy: If RBNJ is a 4th place lock at any point before the final day, would you play to come in 2nd?
I'll admit the fact we're new and just winning the east/getting CCL would be a great accolade could moot the question for many. It certainly makes it a closer call for me.
That said, I think I'd play to avoid RBNJ. They are a terrible matchup for us, while we would be 50/50 at a minimum versus any other team. If we do get RBNJ, I want to make sure it is in the conference final, after TFC & they kick the crap out of each other.
Of course, the best way to avoid all of this is for us to finish first and have RBNJ finish 3rd, where they would face Philly/Impact/DC, any of whom would be a legit threat to knock their asses off in the KO round.
I'm starting to get anxiety just thinking about playoffs. I definitely don't want RBNJ to knock us out. That would be picking the scab off the wound, pouring salt on it, grinding it in, and dousing it with rubbing alcohol.
I'll admit the fact we're new and just winning the east/getting CCL would be a great accolade could moot the question for many. It certainly makes it a closer call for me.
That said, I think I'd play to avoid RBNJ. They are a terrible matchup for us, while we would be 50/50 at a minimum versus any other team. If we do get RBNJ, I want to make sure it is in the conference final, after TFC & they kick the crap out of each other.
Of course, the best way to avoid all of this is for us to finish first and have RBNJ finish 3rd, where they would face Philly/Impact/DC, any of whom would be a legit threat to knock their asses off in the KO round.
I'm starting to get anxiety just thinking about playoffs. I definitely don't want RBNJ to knock us out. That would be picking the scab off the wound, pouring salt on it, grinding it in, and dousing it with rubbing alcohol.
1. I agree RB is our worst matchup and worth avoiding.
2. I'm starting to think there is a chance that coming in 1st in the East could mean winning Supporters Shield. Maybe not at 50% yet, but it's been increasing from a few weeks ago when I thought it was extremely unlikely. In any event, if that turns out to be the case and there's a chance of First Overall, you play to win.
3. It is unlikely that all the pieces will be locked into place such that RB is definitely 4th, and we will know that finishing second guarantees a place in CCL. As long as there is any doubt on the latter point, you play to win.
4. Even though RB is our worst matchup, and I especially hate the idea of a two-game set with them where it seems likely they will wallop us 5-1 in at least one of the games, even if all of the above factors are neutralized, you play to win.
5 Coach Edwards is right. He wasn't a good head coach, but I still always liked him.
Similar threads
- Poll
