Hypothetical question regarding strategy: If RBNJ is a 4th place lock at any point before the final day, would you play to come in 2nd?
I'll admit the fact we're new and just winning the east/getting CCL would be a great accolade could moot the question for many. It certainly makes it a closer call for me.
That said, I think I'd play to avoid RBNJ. They are a terrible matchup for us, while we would be 50/50 at a minimum versus any other team. If we do get RBNJ, I want to make sure it is in the conference final, after TFC & they kick the crap out of each other.
Of course, the best way to avoid all of this is for us to finish first and have RBNJ finish 3rd, where they would face Philly/Impact/DC, any of whom would be a legit threat to knock their asses off in the KO round.
I'm starting to get anxiety just thinking about playoffs. I definitely don't want RBNJ to knock us out. That would be picking the scab off the wound, pouring salt on it, grinding it in, and dousing it with rubbing alcohol.
I think that just like last year, RB is going to be worn out by the time the conference finals roll around. They play essentially 13 guys and they have the CCL to contend with - that's a lot of wear/tear on them. If one of their stars (BWP, Littlefinger, Felipe) gets injured, it's going to be tough for them to plug/play a replacement - Veron isn't the answer. They're also becoming unraveled psychologically - how many more leads can they give up before Marsch goes postal and strangles his own player(s)? It's not that I want to play them, but if we do they aren't going to be the same team physically or psychologically that beat us this season.
1. I agree RB is our worst matchup and worth avoiding.
2. I'm starting to think there is a chance that coming in 1st in the East could mean winning Supporters Shield. Maybe not at 50% yet, but it's been increasing from a few weeks ago when I thought it was extremely unlikely. In any event, if that turns out to be the case and there's a chance of First Overall, you play to win.
3. It is unlikely that all the pieces will be locked into place such that RB is definitely 4th, and we will know that finishing second guarantees a place in CCL. As long as there is any doubt on the latter point, you play to win.
4. Even though RB is our worst matchup, and I especially hate the idea of a two-game set with them where it seems likely they will wallop us 5-1 in at least one of the games, even if all of the above factors are neutralized, you play to win.
5 Coach Edwards is right. He wasn't a good head coach, but I still always liked him.
If we finish 2nd and the Red Fools 3rd (or 1st/4th), our first game against them would be after they had played a mid-week game, and we had rested. For that reason alone, I'd rather play them in the semi-final round than later.
I have been waiting for these arguments since I posted my position, as they reflect some of the considerations I used in my own decision.
1 - Eh. We had mojo and got rolled 4-1 last time.
2 - Question of how much you value a conference title. Aside from it being a first or if you're talking about it meaning SS, my answer is not a lot.
3 - If you mean allocation money, then yes, I would buy that as being a "pro". It would have to be a hell of a lot for that to make my decision for me, though.
4 - Thanks, Hope . I think playing for seeding is a legit strategy. If you had your choice, you wouldn't want to avoid them? I think they would be significant dogs to TFC, so they'd have to get through a one-off KO game where literally anything could happen and pull an upset that would likely be draining. Give me THAT team or someone else. Don't give me an amped up RBNJ team with momentum from a KO win.
I don't think PV would/will follow my preferred strategy this year, solely because it would be a first. Take away that factor, and I am not even close to certain what he or any other manager would do.
People can/will/have disagree, as it's a matter of opinion on value of each choice. Bottomline for me: I would rather play in an MLS Cup final (one we could even be hosting, mind) than make CCL. I see us as 50/50 or better to get there if we avoid RBNJ. They don't get KO'ed by someone else, I don't think we have much of a chance no matter how brave we claim to be. I'd give us around 25% to beat them in conference finals. Meet before that, and 1o% might be stretching my confidence level.
Agree or disagree, I think it's an interesting discussion. Looks like I'm definitely in the minority with my position.
Guess I'll change my mind based on the majority of people seeing it differently.
I have been waiting for these arguments since I posted my position, as they reflect some of the considerations I used in my own decision.
1 - Eh. We had mojo and got rolled 4-1 last time.
2 - Question of how much you value a conference title. Aside from it being a first or if you're talking about it meaning SS, my answer is not a lot.
3 - If you mean allocation money, then yes, I would buy that as being a "pro". It would have to be a hell of a lot for that to make my decision for me, though.
4 - Thanks, Hope . I think playing for seeding is a legit strategy. If you had your choice, you wouldn't want to avoid them? I think they would be significant dogs to TFC, so they'd have to get through a one-off KO game where literally anything could happen and pull an upset that would likely be draining. Give me THAT team or someone else. Don't give me an amped up RBNJ team with momentum from a KO win.
I don't think PV would/will follow my preferred strategy this year, solely because it would be a first. Take away that factor, and I am not even close to certain what he or any other manager would do.
People can/will/have disagree, as it's a matter of opinion on value of each choice. Bottomline for me: I would rather play in an MLS Cup final (one we could even be hosting, mind) than make CCL. I see us as 50/50 or better to get there if we avoid RBNJ. They don't get KO'ed by someone else, I don't think we have much of a chance no matter how brave we claim to be. I'd give us around 25% to beat them in conference finals. Meet before that, and 1o% might be stretching my confidence level.
Agree or disagree, I think it's an interesting discussion. Looks like I'm definitely in the minority with my position.
Guess I'll change my mind based on the majority of people seeing it differently.
If we finish 2nd and the Red Fools 3rd (or 1st/4th), our first game against them would be after they had played a mid-week game, and we had rested. For that reason alone, I'd rather play them in the semi-final round than later.
If we're the higher seed in that scenario, the first time after their midweek game would be in New Jersey. We're not good there, something is in the water.
1 - Eh. We had mojo and got rolled 4-1 last time.
2 - Question of how much you value a conference title. Aside from it being a first or if you're talking about it meaning SS, my answer is not a lot.
3 - If you mean allocation money, then yes, I would buy that as being a "pro". It would have to be a hell of a lot for that to make my decision for me, though.
4 - Thanks, Hope . I think playing for seeding is a legit strategy. If you had your choice, you wouldn't want to avoid them? I think they would be significant dogs to TFC, so they'd have to get through a one-off KO game where literally anything could happen and pull an upset that would likely be draining. Give me THAT team or someone else. Don't give me an amped up RBNJ team with momentum from a KO win.
I damn sure fear playing RBNJ. I want to get to MLS Cup final, whether it's the macho way or we get an assist from someone knocking them off.
As far as me misunderstanding, you said "win something". I didn't realize a spot in CCL got a trophy. I'm not an arsenal fan, so you'll have to forgive that.
While teams play for a higher seed, it's not out of a love of the number next to your name. It's for the supposed easier path. Usually it goes hand in hand. In this hypo, it doesn't.
And the heat thing was supposed to slow down their press, too, right?
If we clinch a top 2 spot with 2-3 games left, I think it's very valid to consider reducing the minutes of our DP's and anyone nursing injuries, even if it may risk our CCL chances. Our top priority should be going into the playoffs as strong as possible. We can always secure a spot by winning MLS Cup.
I'm not a fan of playing to set up a specific opponent in the playoffs.
At least I don't have to keep wearing that stupid rubber band we got for stinging up as founding members anymore. Accidentally put it on before Colorado, and I've been stuck with it since we haven't lost. Now, I can stop looking like an asshole or at least look like an asshole for another reason.
How's that? Positive enough for the sunshine gang?
At least I don't have to keep wearing that stupid rubber band we got for stinging up as founding members anymore. Accidentally put it on before Colorado, and I've been stuck with it since we haven't lost. Now, I can stop looking like an asshole or at least look like an asshole for another reason.
How's that? Positive enough for the sunshine gang?
You basically want to avoid being 5 or 6 as you go on the road, mid-week and then if you win that, need to play again (albeit at home as the lower seed plays the first game) on the weekend.
if MTL wins their game in hand the East standings are 43-41-40-40-40 for the top 5. Tight as a drum. The difference between top 2 and 5 is huge.
I think 1 is pretty much out of hand as TOR is in great form and has almost all home games remaining.
Most likely will need 10/12 home points - maybe even running the full 12 - and at least one more win on the road to finish top 2.
You basically want to avoid being 5 or 6 as you go on the road, mid-week and then if you win that, need to play again (albeit at home as the lower seed plays the first game) on the weekend.
if MTL wins their game in hand the East standings are 43-41-40-40-40 for the top 5. Tight as a drum. The difference between top 2 and 5 is huge.
I think 1 is pretty much out of hand as TOR is in great form and has almost all home games remaining.
Most likely will need 10/12 home points - maybe even running the full 12 - and at least one more win on the road to finish top 2.
All of those times that PV & players on the team gave the token club answer after a loss, "It's just one game and 3 points - it's not more important than any of the other 34," is coming back to haunt us. Singularly they aren't earth shattering important in the grand scheme of the season, but they all add up, and it's a horrible laissez faire attitude when the missed opportunities are compiled together.
All of those times that PV & players on the team gave the token club answer after a loss, "It's just one game and 3 points - it's not more important than any of the other 34," is coming back to haunt us. Singularly they aren't earth shattering important in the grand scheme of the season, but they all add up, and it's a horrible laissez faire attitude when the missed opportunities are compiled together.
The three blown leads in stoppage time (6 points dropped) leads me to believe that NYCFC will be playing mid-week. Imagine having 47 and sitting comfortably in first now.
I can't remember, has NYCFC saved a point or won a game with a goal in stoppage time this year?
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