This was either a rebuild year or a failure of player acquisition. When you spend $15M+ on 3 young players who end up averaging 18 minutes a game you either were baking in a second transition year or you done effed up.
2024 Roster and Transfer Discussion Thread
- Thread starter JayH
- Start date
I would argue this team was expecting to be at that 55+ point level this year. The fact they weren't, as you said, could be just the variance and randomness of soccer. We're talking about turning around two or three results. I do think we were a true-talent 55+ point team, so I would argue this year was the start of our competitive window with this core.
Maybe they expected to be better, and if so that just means the people in charge miscalculated, which is another way of saying they screwed up.
2024 had 49.06 xPts. 2023 had 48.74. That is a mere one-third of a point better. Basically 2023 was very, very unlucky and underperformed their play, while 2024 performed almost exactly to stat expectations. We scored a lot more and had many fewer 1-1 ties, but that masked a team that did not really improve overall play.
By every single metric this team finished exactly where it should have. It was not unlucky, nor was it lucky. League wide NYCFC finished (all data from ASA):
12th in GF, 15th in GA, and 15th in GD
11th in xGF, 16th in xGA, and 13th in xGD
Their Shield Standing position was 13, smack in the middle of all those numbers.
They had 50 points and 49.06 xPts.
They finished exactly where they deserved to finish. For every close bad result that could have easily been different, there was another the opposite way.
Offsetting a reasonable offensive improvement, the 2024 team regressed massively on defense. Goals allowed went up by 11 (29% increase) and xGA by 14.35 (41%). The worst year over year defensive change before 2024 was +4 GA and +5.3 xGA in 2022. In a press conference I posted a week or two ago Cushing stated this was by design. He said he knowingly pressed high to score more goals fully understanding it meant conceding more as well. You don't do that if you have the offensive talent to score goals without destroying your defense. We did not have that talent because we tied up $20-25 million in transfer fees and 4 roster spots including a DP slot on 4 players who scored 6 goals combined, played 14 minutes per game, and one of them was disposed of midseason with no replacement.
If Lee & Co. expected to earn 55 points with that defense and so many wasted roster slots, they were expecting to be lucky, not good.
Folks suggesting that Lee is the worst at his job in the league might want to take a look at this. First of all, Chicago, Toronto and New England just off the top of my head missed the playoffs and ask any RBNJ fan if they think Lee is worse than their guy.
Purely objectively, based on expenditure he is outperforming his spend significantly. How much he has to spend is anyone’s guess and is likely determined more by CFG than by Lee himself.
None of us are exactly satisfied right now. Personally, I think a marquee signing or two would put us over the top. But we haven’t made a big signing of a player established in Europe since Maxi so that’s clearly a team philosophy. The idea that Lee is some raging incompetent just doesn’t hold water.
This is only salary spend. Lee wastes money in the transfer fee side of things. You would be hard pressed to find a team that spent more and got less than Lee did from, Jovan, Ojeda, Fernandez and Bakrar.
Also the primary reason our salary spend is comparatively low is because Lee consistently under utilizes and cheaps out on our DP slots.
2024 MLS Player Salaries Fall update: 5 Takeaways
While Inter Miami's total payroll climbed to $41,708,280, New York City FC's dropped to $14,614,159.
www.hudsonriverblue.com
2024 MLS Player Salaries Fall update: 5 Takeaways
While Inter Miami's total payroll climbed to $41,708,280, New York City FC's dropped to $14,614,159.
In general, our salary spend is decent. Aside from Jovan all of our top salaries are key players for us. In the salary department, I think the primary complaint would be that our DPs are barely over the threshold for being a DP which is the lowest possible utilization of a roster mechanic that allows for unlimited upside.
The issue is when you loop in transfer spend along with the levels of risk we are taking on that transfer spend. Every young prospect no matter how highly regarded is a risk. Why are we gambling $8.7M on 18-year-old Jovan and then skimping on our DPs? What does our team look like if instead of spending $20M in transfer fees on Ojeda, Fernandez, and Jovan we went with some $1M-$2M players in our U22 slots and repurposed the remaining $14M-$17M into transfer fees or salary for a proven attacking DP?
We bought Taty for $500K and sold him for $15M, even if Jovan turns it around next season we are never seeing that level of return for him. Why gamble so much money on such a high-risk player in a league with stringent roster rules and limited budgets? From a cost profile and on-field fit, I still maintain that there is no explanation for the selection of Jovan as a player that points to him being chosen because he was the best player for NYCFC. We can speculate about the reasons but the bottom line is that our money and roster spots are being used for players for reasons beyond what gives NYCFC the best chance to win and that is complete BS. After watching Jovan for a full year anyone still beating the "this is all part of some master rebuild plan" just doesn't want to acknowledge that CFG is using a number of spots on our roster for their gain at the expense of what gives NYCFC the best chance of winning.
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Thought it was an incredibly damning portrait of the roster David Lee built this year that none of the high-priced transfer attackers made the XI last night. Then I looked at the final stats and I realize -- none of them even made it onto the pitch.
We can (and have) talked about Nick Cushing's deficiencies, but for Julian, Jovan, and Ojeda to not even make it onto the pitch in a potential elimination game is incredibly damning towards David Lee.
We can (and have) talked about Nick Cushing's deficiencies, but for Julian, Jovan, and Ojeda to not even make it onto the pitch in a potential elimination game is incredibly damning towards David Lee.
Until we see any of them get a solid run, it could be just as damning of Cushing.
Reference Magno.
I don't absolve Lee, though. Two things can be true.
I think both things are true, frankly. I continue to be unimpressed with the job Cushing has done. Lee I'd like to give another year -- he's clearly in the middle of a rebuild and he should be allowed to finish it before we make major decisions on his performance.
How do you know when the rebuild is built? It appears to me that Chicago has also been rebuilding for 15 years./s
LOL, fair point. I do think we are expecting to be back near the top of the conference for next year, and I'd like to see what that looks like before we make a decision on Lee.
i think next year, we'll know for sure what nick things of our big transfer signings. when magno and thiago first signed, they did not see the field very often. in 2021, magno had maybe one start? but mostly came on as a late 2nd half sub. and then he showed his class in 2022 on the left wing until ronny and taty left and things went to hell.
If our big transfer signings don't start seeing more meaningful minutes next year, that's gotta be mostly on Lee cause if cushing wanted them, he needs to play them. If we're seeing perea picked as a left wing over ojeda again next year, that's just no good. and who knows if maxi will be back next year. his contract is done after this season. if maxi isn't in the squad, then santi will be our sole #10 and there will be one more spot in the starting XI to fill. one of these big transfer signings will have to step up.
i don't think we'll sign more attackers in the off season unless it's one of those, gotta sign them cause the deal is too good to be true, type situations. i think our bigger need is depth in the wingback, midfield, and cb positions.
If our big transfer signings don't start seeing more meaningful minutes next year, that's gotta be mostly on Lee cause if cushing wanted them, he needs to play them. If we're seeing perea picked as a left wing over ojeda again next year, that's just no good. and who knows if maxi will be back next year. his contract is done after this season. if maxi isn't in the squad, then santi will be our sole #10 and there will be one more spot in the starting XI to fill. one of these big transfer signings will have to step up.
i don't think we'll sign more attackers in the off season unless it's one of those, gotta sign them cause the deal is too good to be true, type situations. i think our bigger need is depth in the wingback, midfield, and cb positions.
Five starts, 10 subs for 450 minutes. Two goals, no assists. He's roughly doing the same thing with Corinthians now, comparable xG and all that.
[Edit: Don't forget, Malachi will be back next year and looking for minutes on the left wing.]
Magno joined in May of 2021, had no training camp, missed a good chunk of games at the start of the season and by the end of the season, he was integrated enough into the team that he was subbing on in key playoff moments and scoring the goal against Philly that sent us through. Fernandez was signed in the second transfer window last season! Jovan and Ojeda joined in the preseason and both played in pre-season friendlies. None of these guys has shown enough across the season to even get a sub appearance in our last game. We should be seeing something by now. Even in his early days with the club when Magno subbed in he'd shown enough talent that there was an excitement that anything could happen when he came on.
A full year in, does anyone honestly look at Ojeda, Fernandez or Jovan coming into the game and think wow I'm excited to see this guy coming on, he's shown he can be a real difference maker.
No. But it usually takes players a year to get accustomed to MLS, and with how young these players are, we need to have some patience. I expect those players to be a lot better next year.
I think when we talk 26/27, it’s not a matter of a rebuild needing to take that long, it’s more that those are the strategic years for the club to be as good as possible with the World Cup and then stadium incoming
bit early but things are dead so ...
San diego joins in 2025 as the 30th MLS team. let's hope that's the last expansion for a good long while.. or maybe for good.
anyway - that means expansion draft time. here are the rules: 2024 MLS Expansion Draft Rules & Procedures | MLSSoccer.com
The rules don't mention anything about players on loan, but I assume they are not eligible for the expansion draft, which makes sense.
Looking at our roster, unless i'm miscounting, we have 10 homegrown automatically protected that leaves 19 players, of which we can protect 12.
I think we're going to protect:
1. Jovan
2. Ojeda
3. Fernandez
4. Bakrar
5. Martinez
6. Santi
7. Jones
8. Parks
9. Martins
10. Risa
11. Wolf
12. Freese
That leaves the following unprotected:
13. Ilenic
14. Maxi
15. Otoole
16. Tanas
17. Barraza
18. Hope-Gund
19. Perea
I honestly found it a bit difficult to decide who to protect. Comes down to whether the club prioritizes potential/money spent or player performance. I went with prioritizing money spent since they paid transfer fees, they don't want to just lose them in an expansion draft. but who knows. maybe i'm thinking about it all wrong. in any case, what are people thinking?
San diego joins in 2025 as the 30th MLS team. let's hope that's the last expansion for a good long while.. or maybe for good.
anyway - that means expansion draft time. here are the rules: 2024 MLS Expansion Draft Rules & Procedures | MLSSoccer.com
The rules don't mention anything about players on loan, but I assume they are not eligible for the expansion draft, which makes sense.
Looking at our roster, unless i'm miscounting, we have 10 homegrown automatically protected that leaves 19 players, of which we can protect 12.
I think we're going to protect:
1. Jovan
2. Ojeda
3. Fernandez
4. Bakrar
5. Martinez
6. Santi
7. Jones
8. Parks
9. Martins
10. Risa
11. Wolf
12. Freese
That leaves the following unprotected:
13. Ilenic
14. Maxi
15. Otoole
16. Tanas
17. Barraza
18. Hope-Gund
19. Perea
I honestly found it a bit difficult to decide who to protect. Comes down to whether the club prioritizes potential/money spent or player performance. I went with prioritizing money spent since they paid transfer fees, they don't want to just lose them in an expansion draft. but who knows. maybe i'm thinking about it all wrong. in any case, what are people thinking?
Swap Perea with Bakrar. I'd like to keep O'Toole too, maybe for Martins (because is San Diego going to pickup a DP CB?)
