By The Numbers: What We've Done, What Must We Do
- Thread starter mgarbowski
- Start date
I have to seriously reconsider spending time here.
I've repeatedly structured my life to avoid lawyers. Now I'm surrounded by them.
I've repeatedly structured my life to avoid lawyers. Now I'm surrounded by them.
LOL. The one time I've been arrested was with my friend who went on to become a lawyer.
Jesus fuck, we're all lawyers?
Another lawyer, checking in. I'm also one of those elusive ones
Midas Mulligan was talking about with an economics degree.
EDIT: Anyway, the reason I came to this thread. Today sucked. Orlando, New England, and Montreal all got 3 points. Not looking good.
Another lawyer, checking in. I'm also one of those elusive ones
Midas Mulligan was talking about with an economics degree.EDIT: Anyway, the reason I came to this thread. Today sucked. Orlando, New England, and Montreal all got 3 points. Not looking good.
Last edited:
Yeah, if we can only lose four games according to this thread. We just lost to the easiest opponent we have left.
We now project to an 8th place finish in the East, so the 3rd worst team in the league. Our playoff chances are 18.3%. That's half as likely as before yesterday happened.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html
We are in the deepest of deep shit now.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html
We are in the deepest of deep shit now.
Bad week. Even Chicago won. Here are the East Conference PPG Standings:
We're closer to Chicago behind us than Orlando ahead of us. Worse, the projected Sixth Place PPG has moved up, with New England at 44 and Orlando outside and looking in at 42. That's a mechanical projection and definitely not definitive but certainly not good. Anybody who is still predicting that the playoff line will be at 40 or lower has to start wondering when the line will move big that way.
This page
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/NYCFC.html
says we have an 18% chance at making the playoffs overall. It also says if we finish with 42 points our chance of making the playoffs is in the low 30% range, but if we get 43 points that jumps to mid 50%. So the target for "barely likely" to reach the playoffs is right at 42-43 points, consistent with my earlier guesstimates. Also 45 points has us with an 88% chance and 46 95%. Again these are consistent with my guesses.
To do to get there with 12 games remaining.
To reach 45 points we need to get 1.75 PPG over the remaining 12.
To reach 43 points we need to get 1.58 PPG over the remaining 12.
To reach 42 Points we need to get 1.5 PPG over the remaining 12.
6 W 3L 3T gets us to 45 points
6W 4L 2T gets us to 44 points
5 W 3L 4T gets us to 43 points
6 W 6L 1T gets us to 43 points
5 W 4L 3T gets us to 42 points
5 W 5L 2T gets us to 41 points
This is completely unfair, but since Iraola and Angelino, our first transfers showed up, we are 1-2-1 for 4 points in 4 games. Keep that up and we're dead soon. In our last 10 games we earned 17 points for 1.7 PPG. Keep that up and we get 44 points.
Finally, user Mikeylito posted a useful table here in what he colorfully called the "Death Watch" table, listing the maximum number of points each team could earn if they won all their remaining games. We are ahead of Philadelphia and nobody else.
We're closer to Chicago behind us than Orlando ahead of us. Worse, the projected Sixth Place PPG has moved up, with New England at 44 and Orlando outside and looking in at 42. That's a mechanical projection and definitely not definitive but certainly not good. Anybody who is still predicting that the playoff line will be at 40 or lower has to start wondering when the line will move big that way.
This page
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/NYCFC.html
says we have an 18% chance at making the playoffs overall. It also says if we finish with 42 points our chance of making the playoffs is in the low 30% range, but if we get 43 points that jumps to mid 50%. So the target for "barely likely" to reach the playoffs is right at 42-43 points, consistent with my earlier guesstimates. Also 45 points has us with an 88% chance and 46 95%. Again these are consistent with my guesses.
To do to get there with 12 games remaining.
To reach 45 points we need to get 1.75 PPG over the remaining 12.
To reach 43 points we need to get 1.58 PPG over the remaining 12.
To reach 42 Points we need to get 1.5 PPG over the remaining 12.
6 W 3L 3T gets us to 45 points
6W 4L 2T gets us to 44 points
5 W 3L 4T gets us to 43 points
6 W 6L 1T gets us to 43 points
5 W 4L 3T gets us to 42 points
5 W 5L 2T gets us to 41 points
This is completely unfair, but since Iraola and Angelino, our first transfers showed up, we are 1-2-1 for 4 points in 4 games. Keep that up and we're dead soon. In our last 10 games we earned 17 points for 1.7 PPG. Keep that up and we get 44 points.
Finally, user Mikeylito posted a useful table here in what he colorfully called the "Death Watch" table, listing the maximum number of points each team could earn if they won all their remaining games. We are ahead of Philadelphia and nobody else.
I think we are looking more and more like a shootout team. If DC/RSL can go 10 goals, we should be able to as well. More goals means lower likelihood of ties. I'm shooting for a finish of 7W, 5L, 0T.
Let's go for broke.
#NoMoreNed
Ned does tend to suppress the total score on both sides of the ball. His effect on our offense is notorious. On the other side, it is not so much that he plays defense as that when he is passing the ball backwards our back line has more time to retreat than when the other team lobs it over their heads.
A brilliantly astute assessment.
I have to admit. You know that part of being human that makes you look when passing by the accident scene? We don't actually want to see bodies or anything horrific, but we look anyway. There's that part of me that just wonders what we would see if Kreis actually started Ned the rest of the season. Questions this would raise.
- Could Kreis single-handedly drive our season ticket numbers under 5 digits?
- Which of our DPs would be the first to walk up to Kreis at the closing whistle of another loss and kick him in the crotch?
- At which game would this happen?
- Would Mix tweet a video of him and Mullins singing about the crotch kick in their car?
- During which starting lineup announcement would
Midas Mulligan 's head actually explode like a Gallagher watermelon?
- Would the spray reach the field?
And yes,
mgarbowski I also ponder things like Kreis putting a giant chicken head on an airplane.
It would reach the field even if he was at home with his feet up watching it on TV.
If David Villa wins the golden boot award this season we may get to the playoffs, or not.
A brilliantly astute assessment.
I have to admit. You know that part of being human that makes you look when passing by the accident scene? We don't actually want to see bodies or anything horrific, but we look anyway. There's that part of me that just wonders what we would see if Kreis actually started Ned the rest of the season. Questions this would raise.
These are the things I ponder.
- Could Kreis single-handedly drive our season ticket numbers under 5 digits?
- Which of our DPs would be the first to walk up to Kreis at the closing whistle of another loss and kick him in the crotch?
- At which game would this happen?
- Would Mix tweet a video of him and Mullins singing about the crotch kick in their car?
- During which starting lineup announcement would
- Would the spray reach the field?
And yes,
- Kreis could not single-handedly drive down STH numbers with Villa, Lampard, and Pirlo still in the lineup.
- Pirlo would probably do it. Though, honestly, I'm expecting it more out of Nemec. Don't fuck with Slovakia. If NYCFC wins, Nemec knows his 300K salary is safe. If we lose, he would be on the chopping block.
- Nemec, head to the crotch. Last game of the season. The balls are harder and better to headbutt in the cold, last week of October.
- Mix and Khiry (not Mullins), epic snapchat symphony driving in Mix's Porsche
- 1st game of the 2016 campaign when Ned is in the starting lineup.
- Depending on his seat selection that day and the wind speed. Hopefully
Midas Mulligan drinks some poison before the game so that his head blood hits Kreis and kills him, saving us all.
With answers like that you are really just encouraging me to ask more ludicrous questions.- Kreis could not single-handedly drive down STH numbers with Villa, Lampard, and Pirlo still in the lineup.
- Pirlo would probably do it. Though, honestly, I'm expecting it more out of Nemec. Don't fuck with Slovakia. If NYCFC wins, Nemec knows his 300K salary is safe. If we lose, he would be on the chopping block.
- Nemec, head to the crotch. Last game of the season. The balls are harder and better to headbutt in the cold, last week of October.
- Mix and Khiry (not Mullins), epic snapchat symphony driving in Mix's Porsche
- 1st game of the 2016 campaign when Ned is in the starting lineup.
- Depending on his seat selection that day and the wind speed. Hopefully
Well hell, nobody wants to read this but here it is.
First, it's looking more and more like it will take 43 or even 44 points to finish in 6th place. We're projecting to 35-36, and at some point, as Parcells used to say, you are what your record is.
Second, we have gone to hell since we started playing our transfers:
From our low point after the RSL game we got 13 points in 6 games. Then transfers came in, and wow. Blame the players, blame Kreis, blame chemistry, blame better opponents. These have been a crappy 5 games.
All of the following are Win-Lose-Draw
6-2-3 45 points
6-3-2 44 points
5-2-4 43 points
6-4-1 43 points
5-3-3 42 points
5-4-2 41 points
Right now these all seem out of reach. The remaining games:
How we got here. The lines mark the season low point and the game when transfers started playing.
First, it's looking more and more like it will take 43 or even 44 points to finish in 6th place. We're projecting to 35-36, and at some point, as Parcells used to say, you are what your record is.
Second, we have gone to hell since we started playing our transfers:
From our low point after the RSL game we got 13 points in 6 games. Then transfers came in, and wow. Blame the players, blame Kreis, blame chemistry, blame better opponents. These have been a crappy 5 games.
All of the following are Win-Lose-Draw
6-2-3 45 points
6-3-2 44 points
5-2-4 43 points
6-4-1 43 points
5-3-3 42 points
5-4-2 41 points
Right now these all seem out of reach. The remaining games:
How we got here. The lines mark the season low point and the game when transfers started playing.
Last edited:
Similar threads
- Poll
